Introduction

Following a 2019-20 season when the Montreal Canadiens surprised everyone in a qualifying-round win over the Pittsburgh Penguins, only to lose to Philadelphia in four playoff games thereafter, the fans wanted to see the team add offensive talent. As such, more than a few fans were disappointed when they made defenceman Kaiden Guhle their first-round pick in the summer of 2020.

Fast forward to the present day, and most of those same fans, myself included, will happily admit that they were wrong. Guhle has since become a legitimate top-four defenceman for the club, and with him being inked to a six-year contract carrying a $5.5 million average annual value starting this season, he comes at a very reasonable price if he maintains the ability to play that role.

Injuries held him back a bit in his first two NHL seasons, and that was the case yet again in 2024-25. Still, he was one of the most reliable defenders the team had when healthy, and was a breath of fresh air for the team when he returned from a freak mid-season injury. He eventually helped the team clinch a playoff berth, and was one of their best defencemen in an ill-fated series with the Washington Capitals.

Year four will be a big one for Guhle as the first one of his new contract, while playoffs have become the definitive goal for the team. The Habs will need him to stay healthy and continue providing quality defensive minutes as they look to take the next step.

Voting

As we get closer to the end of our list, the ranges get tighter. Eight panel votes placed Guhle at his eventual landing spot in fifth, with a high of four and a low of seven.

About half of the votes Guhle received from members were at fifth place. He has a clear valuation as one of the top players in the organization while not being among the more elite options.

Top 25 Under 25 History

He debuted at eighth way back in 2020, and has been in and around the top five ever since. Last year he lost two spots when he came in at sixth, but he gains one back this year despite stiff competition around him.

History of #5

Year
#5

2025
Kaiden Guhle

2024
Lane Hutson

2023
Juraj Slafkovský

2022
Kirby Dach

2021
Kaiden Guhle

2020
Mattias Norlinder

2019
Nick Suzuki

2018
Charles Hudon

2017
Charles Hudon

2016
Artturi Lehkonen

2015
Charles Hudon

2014
Michaël Bournival

2013
Brendan Gallagher

2012
Nathan Beaulieu

2011
Nathan Beaulieu

2010
Louis Leblanc

Strengths

While there is untapped offensive potential in Guhle, his primary strength is the defensive side of things. With the emergence of Lane Hutson last season, there was virtually no pressure on him to create offensively, and he really settled into more of a shutdown role. The result was marked improvement in his defensive numbers, particularly with zone-entry defence, and retrieving pucks in his own zone.

Data courtesy of All Three Zones

As was the case for him in Junior, he has been improving against the rush as he gains more experience. His gap control seems to get better from year to year, and he’s quickly becoming a treacherous option to carry the puck into the zone against. Physicality is a strong trait of his, and as he continues to adapt to the speed of the NHL he should keep seeing better results against oncoming rushes.

Back to that untapped offensive potential, however, as his underrated abilities on that front could become a secret weapon. He has a powerful slapshot but prefers a quick wrister through traffic when the opportunity arises. His offensive output won’t blow anyone out of the water on paper, but those who have followed him through his career know that he has more to offer than he’s shown in the NHL to this point. The Habs will absolutely take a more defensive-minded effort from him, but make no mistake that he has the potential to cross the 40-point milestone at some point in his career.

Weaknesses

A lot of things play into injury woes, not the least of which is bad luck. There is no way to paint Guhle as an injury-prone player over the freak accident that lacerated his quadricep last season; it was quite possibly the unluckiest sequence of his hockey career. That said, through three years in the NHL, we have yet to see him play a full season. Staying healthy is a battle the team will desperately want him to win in 2025-26. How exactly he can do that is unfortunately rather unclear.

There is also the issue of him playing on the right side, which seems to torpedo his effectiveness, particularly when paired with Mike Matheson on his left. Perhaps Guhle could succeed there with the right partner, but I think the vast majority of Habs fans would agree that the coaching staff simply shouldn’t try that anymore. He is clearly effective on his natural side, and that is where he needs to be playing.

Projection

When healthy, Guhle is a bona fide top-four defenceman, so the only question for this year and beyond is who he should play with. In last year’s playoffs, he was paired with rookie sensation Hutson, and they had some pretty tantalizing underlying numbers together. It shouldn’t be out of the question for the team to try that pair again to start the 2025-26 regular season.

Or, do you put him with the newly acquired Noah Dobson? Like Hutson, Dobson is offensive-minded, and we know that Guhle is very capable of playing that stable defensive role alongside a partner who likes to venture up ice.

Maybe the answer is neither of these options. Maybe they want to put Guhle with Alexandre Carrier again, and form a duo with Hutson and Dobson. There are a lot of possibilities they can explore in camp and during the pre-season, so we probably won’t have a clear answer until just before the season starts.

Whoever he plays with, Guhle will eat a lot of minutes this season and allow Hutson and Dobson to play their styles. With this being the first year of a long-term extension, he stands to be a pillar on the blue line for a long time to come.