The Phoenix Mercury had a lengthy win streak snapped in their last matchup, but they remain fully in the mix for a top four seed in the WNBA.

Phoenix has one of the best veteran cores in the league, led by Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally, making it a tough team to face in the postseason. 

On Tuesday, Phoenix has a chance to play spoiler against the Los Angeles Sparks, who need to win out and get a loss from the Seattle Storm on Tuesday to make the playoffs.

L.A. kept its season alive by beating the Dallas Wings by double digits at home on Sunday. Can it keep things rolling against Phoenix?

This will be a substantially harder matchup, as the Sparks are set as road underdogs.

Here’s a look at the latest odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Western Conference battle.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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Moneyline

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Sparks Injury ReportMercury Injury ReportMercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

I’m going to fade All-Star Satou Sabally again on Tuesday, as he’s scored 14 or fewer points in five games in a row and six of her last seven matchups for the Mercury.

During that seven-game stretch, Sabally attempted just 9.9 shots per game while shooting 37.7 percent from the field. She only has one game during that stretch where she took more than 11 shots.

That really limits the floor for Sabally, who has struggled with her shot in 2025, knocking down just 39.5 percent of her field goal attempts and 31.0 percent of her 3-pointers.

Even against a bad Sparks defense, Sabally is a fade candidate on Tuesday. 

I’m not sold on the Sparks pulling off the upset on Tuesday night, but I do think they keep this game close after losses by three, five and eight to Phoenix in the 2025 season.

The Mercury still have a top-four seed to play for, but Los Angeles has the ultimate motivation factor on Tuesday, as it needs a win to stay alive in the playoff picture.

The Sparks have also been a better team on the road in 2025 (11-10) than at home (9-12). Phoenix is 15-6 at home, so I’m not willing to take the Sparks in an upset in this matchup. 

Despite a strong record, Phoenix is just seventh in the WNBA in net rating over its last 10 games (two spots higher than L.A.), but it hasn’t been able to blow out this Los Angeles team all season, winning by just five points in their one meeting in Phoenix.

With the season on the line for L.A., I think it at least hangs around on Tuesday night. 

Pick: Sparks +5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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