Introduction

Cole Caufield scored 28 goals in the 2023-24 season. Some people considered it a disappointment. So he came into 2024-25 and scored 10 times in October, setting the stage for a career-high 37 on the season. Since the turn of the millennium, only one other person has scored that many goals in a single season while wearing the Tricolore: Max Pacioretty (37 in 2014-15 and 39 in 2013-14).

The 2024-25 season secured Caufield’s place as Montreal’s current second-best forward, and has entirely wiped away concerns about whether the Wisconsinite would live up to his contract. (Well, not entirely. One indomitable sportswriter still holds out against the invaders).

Voting

Eight of the 11 panelists, as well as the overall fan vote, had Caufield at third. All of the other votes had him fourth. However, there was a sizable gap between him and the top two.

Top 25 Under 25 History

The fan vote distribution largely coalesced around the top four spots, and while most people placed him either third or fourth, a sizable minority had the winger in the top two. A small handful of voters placed Caufield fifth or lower.

After starting at number seven, Caufield has enjoyed a consistent run in the top three over the next six years. However, he will exit the T25U25 competition without reaching the top spot.

History of #3

Year
#3

2025
Cole Caufield

2024
Cole Caufield

2023
Kirby Dach

2022
Juraj Slafkovský

2021
Alexander Romanov

2020
Cole Caufield

2019
Jonathan Drouin

2018
Artturi Lehkonen

2017
Artturi Lehkonen

2016
Mikhail Sergachev

2015
Nathan Beaulieu

2014
Nathan Beaulieu

2013
Max Pacioretty

2012
Alex Galchenyuk

2011
Max Pacioretty

2010
Lars Eller

Strengths

When someone thinks of Cole Caufield, his shot is the first thing that comes to mind. However, where Caufield differs from other well-known snipers such as Patrik Laine or Alex Ovechkin is that he relies more on precision and release speed than sheer velocity or heaviness. If there is a gap, Caufield will find it. Just ask Linus Ullmark. Or Ilya Sorokin. Or Jonathan Quick.

This reliance on quickness makes Caufield a more versatile threat. Sure, he has a notable preference for the left side of the net, between the circle and the crease, but the winger can tally from anywhere in the offensive zone. He scores from the slot, he scores from the dot. He scores where Mama hides the cookies, he scores by even pantsing rookies.

Given Caufield’s diminutive stature, people have long expected him to fit the mould of a perimeter sniper. But he has made his NHL living below the hashmarks, specializing in goal-line play in particular. He has leveraged his lack of size into an advantage, as that, combined with his agility, makes it very difficult for him to be hit while he’s moving. Further, opposing defenders must respect his ability to hit the back of the net from anywhere, as well as his ability to either evade oncoming traffic with his mitts or to find open players in more dangerous positions. This causes them to approach with more caution, further playing into Caufield’s hands.

To that end, one major factor separating Caufield in 2024-25 versus his “down” 2023-24 season is that he shot more selectively. Comparing the shot maps from the two campaigns, there is a significant drop in shots from between 20 to 40 feet from the goal line in 2024-25. This is further corroborated by how his expected goals per shot on goal (ixG/S) at five-on-five increased from 0.089 to 0.104. That 0.015 doesn’t seem like a big number, but multiplied across 200 shots, it becomes a full three more expected goals, 10% of a 30-goal-scorer’s tally.

This improved selectivity actually stems from a marked desire by Caufield and the Montreal coaching staff to correct one of the winger’s weaknesses heading into 2024-25: the fact that his shot becomes less effective with distance, and that Caufield had a tendency to stray toward “spray and pray” during cold spells. This was adroitly first noted by Vanessa Kezwer back in October 2024, when she highlighted the differences in Caufield’s shooting tendencies. Generally speaking, Caufield did manage to carry what he started in October through the rest of the season, and reaped the rewards accordingly.

Weaknesses

He will probably never be mistaken for a defensive stalwart. In fact, his expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) was the worst among regular players on the team (3.16, ahead of only Logan Mailloux, Alex Barré-Boulet, Oliver Kapanen, Ivan Demidov, and Joshua Roy). At the same time, much as the case was with Juraj Slafkovský, these gaudy numbers were a product of time spent apart from Nick Suzuki during the first half of the season. Caufield’s defensive metrics were unsurprisingly decent when playing with Suzuki, Slafkovský, and Lane Hutson. They were also decent, perhaps more surprisingly, when paired with Alex Newhook, Jayden Struble, and Arber Xhekaj.

Beyond the raw numbers, there are also positive signs indicating that Caufield is working on the finer details of his defensive play. Based on Corey Sznajder’s microstat tracking project, Caufield has progressively improved his engagement and prowess in the defensive zone over the last three years, especially when it comes to facilitating puck retrievals and zone exits. This has not escaped the notice of his captain or his head coach.

He is now no longer content to just sit as the high forward in defensive-zone coverage and jump on loose pucks. Instead, he’s leveraging the anticipation and hockey sense that powers his offensive game and transferring it to the other side of the puck. In this example from the end of the 2024-25 season, he not only has the awareness to recognize an impending two-on-one, he outraces Dylan Larkin to the pass and outmuscles him for the puck. With the Detroit Red Wings taking the opportunity to change, Caufield then whips the puck to Suzuki near centre ice, sparking a sequence that eventually culminates in Caufield’s 37th goal of the season.

All that having been said, Caufield’s second foray into the post-season did expose a major issue with his game: the inability to convince Kelly Sutherland and Jake Brenk that the NHL rulebook prohibits cross-checks to the face. Maybe he and Brendan Gallagher can ask Josh Anderson for tips on how to manage the feat.

Projection

Caufield is now among the upper echelon of goal-scorers in the NHL, a place where 30 goals is a floor, not a ceiling. He represents something that the Canadiens haven’t enjoyed since Pacioretty a decade ago, and while Patches never hit 40, there’s no reason to believe that Caufield can’t get there. After all, Caufield got his 37 with Laine siphoning off some of his power-play production, and unlike Pacioretty, who was almost always shadowed as Montreal’s greatest offensive threat, the Stevens Point native is arguably anywhere from the best to the fifth-best weapon in the Canadiens arsenal on any given night.

Heading into 2025-26, the sky is the limit for someone who was once considered so far away from those lofty heights — literally and figuratively.