The NASCAR Cup Series’ Playoff field is set to be cut from 16 to 12 on Saturday at the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, and it’s anybody’s guess who will fail to make the grade.

Heading into Tennessee, Josh Berry (-45), Alex Bowman (-35), Shane van Gisbergen (-15), and Austin Dillon (-11) are all below the cutoff line, with Austin Cindric currently the lowest qualifying driver in 12th, just 11 points above the line. Only Playoff race winners Chase Briscoe (Cook Out Southern 500) and Denny Hamlin (Enjoy Illinois 300) have secured their spots in the Round of 12 so far.

Ahead of Saturday’s race, Cindric admitted that his situation was precarious, noting that Bristol is a track where the script can be flipped at any given moment. “No different than this past weekend, you get a caution at a certain time, and cars that aren’t in position to get stage points are just going to flip,” the 27-year-old said on the ‘Door Bumper Clear’ podcast.

Cindric, who drives the No. 2 Team Penske Ford, noted that, as pointed out by Jordan Bianchi, it wouldn’t come as a shock if Berry were to perform well at Bristol, “Especially if tire wear comes into play.” He also said that Bowman may well also have a good race at a track where he has qualified on pole in both of the previous two races.

“Honestly, Austin Dillon, even then, I mean it’s not a huge gap for those guys to make up for us if we don’t have a great day, or even [Ross Chastain] or [Christopher Bell],” Cindric added. “So, I don’t think any of it’s out of the question. 

“So, if you’re a race fan, there’s a lot to look forward to. If you’re a driver 11 points above the cut line, there’s a lot to get after.”

Chastain enters the race narrowly above Cindric in the standings with a 19-point cushion, with Bell up in eighth at +32.

Podcast co-host and Bubba Wallace’s spotter, Freddie Kraft, added that Bristol is a race where it’s “very easy to get caught up in somebody else’s mess. And that’s what I think you can get in trouble with.”

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He later continued: “If you get caught up in somebody’s accident, especially if we are going to have tire wear, where we’re potentially blowing tires like we were a couple of years ago, or last year, whatever it was, it’s very easy to get caught up in somebody else’s mess here.”

Wallace, by comparison, looks a safe bet to make it through, 50 points above the cutoff line, up in fourth. 

Should Cindric reach the Round of 12, as he did in both 2022 and 2024, the focus would then turn to maximising the next three races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and the Roval in order to make his Round of 8 debut.