With those revisions adding to beginning inventory for 2024-25, July 31, 2025, all wheat stocks came in at 4.112 mmt, 22.1% below the year prior level of 5.278 mmt according to the news summary. But in reality, 582,000 mt above the ending stocks that AAFC had predicted just a few weeks earlier. All the confusion was likely responsible for the limited impact on price.

The durum wheat portion of those revisions likely has the greatest potential to have a market impact. Following a very small revision for 2023, July 31, 2024, on-farm durum stocks were revised higher by an incredible 261,500 mt — from 50,000 mt to 311,500 mt (making it the highest on-farm level since 2019). That allowed for a 159,400 mt revision higher in 2023 production (as reported in June) and a 98,000 mt reduction in FWD use. More importantly, it resulted in a similar sized beginning inventory for 2024-25 with most of that flowing through to result in a much higher July 31 stocks level than recently projected by AAFC. Statistics Canada officially reported July 31 durum wheat stocks at 496,000 mt, down 25.9% from last year’s 669,000 mt. As far as the market is concerned, it was sharply higher than AAFC estimated Aug. 20 at 260,000 mt.

Wheat excluding durum had a similar story with the official report claiming July 31, 2025, stocks fell 21.5% from last year’s level of 4.609 mmt to 3.616 mmt this year. But prior to all the revisions (on-farm stocks up 436,600 mt, allowing previous production to be revised up 380,000 mt as reported in June and FWD use to be reduced by 56,600 mt), AAFC had been expecting 3.270 mmt. So, a friendly outcome for certain, but somewhat disappointing compared to the headline.

Oats were not to be outdone with revisions to July 31, 2023, stocks flowing through to provide much more of a cushion than expected. On-farm stocks for that year were revised higher by a significant 228,000 mt, which flowed through to supply an equal revision higher for 2024 and beginning inventory for 2024-25. That resulted in the headline of “Total stocks of oats were down 24.3% year over year to 507,000 mt” according to Statistics Canada when the market had been looking for 325,000 mt based on the recent AAFC update. Even USDA would be surprised given its Aug. 12 estimate of 345,000 mt. In this case, the added cushion was entirely based on a cut in FWD use in 2022-23 of 228,000 mt to accommodate a similar increase in on-farm stocks.

Barley stocks were the most surprising unrevised total with July 31 stocks of 1.249 mmt compared to 1.152 mmt last year. AAFC had expected it would come in at 1.1 mmt, but total domestic use came in lower than expected despite higher than estimated FWD use. This may be taken with a grain of salt by the trade given the higher stocks estimate was due to a 13.2% increase in on-farm stocks more than offsetting a 6.6% reduction in commercial inventories. Given this is the first year of the methodology of Statistics Canada relying on their own “administrative data” to arrive at the on-farm total, confidence in market participants may be low. In the meantime, it is still a bearish print.

Data for corn and soybeans will not be released until Oct. 8 given the crop year-end for those two falls on Aug. 31.

On the pulse side, dry field pea stocks recovered with July 31 supplies up 63.5% from last year at 489,000 mt compared to 299,000 mt last year. It’s worth noting that on-farm stocks have more than doubled year over year (at 252,800 mt versus 102,900 mt), so the same caution should be exercised here.

Lentils told a similar story with July 31 stocks up 232.7% from year earlier levels. At 549,000 mt compared to 165,000 mt last year, the increase was supplied by an on-farm total of 395,000 mt compared to just 27,000 mt last year.

July 31 flax stocks fell to 134,000 mt compared to 164,000 mt last year.

And finally, rye stocks witnessed a dramatic rebound, up 57.1% compared to last year at 143,000 mt versus 91,000 mt the previous year.

Ending with a bit of an apology, I realize that this is a lot, but there’s no way of telling the complex story without telling the story.

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Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

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