With only 16 games left on the schedule, the Astros are favored to qualify for the postseason. Of course, the question remains whether that’ll be as the AL West division champ or as a Wild Card. The current odds per FanGraphs favor Houston at this moment, but barely.
If you were to tell me that Houston, Seattle, and Texas would all be within three games and vying for the division title in near the middle of September, I would believe you. In fact, I think most of us expected this situation to unfold back on Opening Day, more or less. I do find the journey here incredibly fascinating, though, as all three teams have had some terrific highs and some real lows. Injuries have greatly impacted both the Astros and Rangers this season, with the latter seeing their health evaporate in the past month or so. Oddly enough, the Mariners’ pitching staff has surprisingly held this team back at times. It has been a weird year, y’all.
Advertisement
Following Thursday’s finale against the Blue Jays, the remaining 15 games feature a large swath of division rivals, with only a three-game set in Atlanta against the Braves being the only non-AL West opponent remaining. A six-game homestand against the Rangers and Mariners next week could perhaps determine how the division ultimately settles. With little margin of error, though, the Astros have a tall task in front of them. They’ll essentially have to reverse a declining second-half trend to hold off not one, but two division rivals.
Can they actually do it? Um, I don’t know.
Frankly, this team has been rather mediocre for most of the season, other than a 19-7 record in June. In every other month, the Astros have been within two games of .500 in either direction. You can even make an argument that they’ve overperformed up to now, with a Pythag win-loss record of 75-71. But since July 7, the day after that sweep of the Dodgers, this roster has been noticeably below average, with the third-fewest runs scored (219) and the tenth-most earned runs allowed (247). Injuries have essentially decimated the bullpen, with Enyel De Los Santos and Craig Kimbrel joining the club recently and are pitching in crucial innings. The lineup finally has some semblance of health, but any meaningful improvement has escaped them. Although the starting rotation hasn’t been among the best in baseball, it has hovered around the middle of the pack, preventing an even steeper decline. Thank goodness for Jason Alexander, right?
In all seriousness, my expectations at the moment for this roster are relatively low. I don’t see how this team has enough arms to finish out the season and have a sustained postseason run. There’s always a possibility that they catch fire at any moment and ride that wave into October. But I wouldn’t hold my breath. Ultimately, the outcome for the AL West title also depends on how the competition plays in the final two-plus weeks. Whether the Astros can make that a moot point remains in doubt, though.