The Texas Rangers trail Seattle and Houston by two games in the AL West as they fight for playoff contention. Here’s what the playoff picture looks like.

DALLAS — The Texas Rangers have suffered their way to a chance at the playoffs with just two weeks left in the season.

At least that’s how it felt for most of this very strange year — from the terrible offensive production for much of the season to the recent spate of injuries (Corey Seager, Nathan Eovaldi and Marcus Semien, to just name a few). 

But powered by “The Little Rascals” — a band of replacements led by Michael Helman — the Rangers sit just two games out of a playoff spot with 15 games left on the schedule (entering Friday). In fact, Texas isn’t just closing in on a playoff spot — they’re also just two games out of the lead in the American League West, thanks to another Houston loss Thursday night.

On the flip side, the Seattle Mariners can’t seem to lose. Their six-game win streak (including an extra-innings win Thursday night) has held the Rangers at bay in the Wild Card race, and now Seattle finds itself tied with the Astros for the division lead.

In any case, the Rangers just need to keep winning (no duh). Here’s the full playoff scenario, as it stands Friday:


Where do the Rangers currently stand?

Entering Friday, Texas trailed Seattle and Houston by two games in the American League West. Since the Mariners hold the tiebreaker over the Astros, the Astros currently occupy the third AL Wild Card spot (behind the Red Sox and Yankees). So the Rangers are also two games back of the third Wild Card.

Texas isn’t the only team with Wild Card hopes — the Guardians are 1.5 games behind the Rangers, and the Royals are three games behind the Rangers.


What are the Rangers playoff chances?

ESPN and Fangraphs, as of Friday morning, place the Rangers’ playoff chances at 27.7%. This number was as low as 4.3% on Aug. 28. The Rangers have gone 9-3 since that date. Despite being two games back of the division and wild card, the analytics like Texas’ odds to make the playoffs via the wild card as opposed to winning the AL West; the Rangers’ division odds are 4.4%, while their wild card odds are 23.5%.

The Rangers’ odds to win the World Series are at a paltry 0.5%, according to Fangraphs. Which is better than zero, we suppose.


What is the Rangers’ ‘Magic Number’?

We’re too early for a true “Magic Number” watch, but here goes nothing. The Magic Number is a simple (yet sometimes complicated) look at how many games a team has to win, plus how many games the teams in front of them need to lose.

According to PlayoffStatus.com, the Rangers currently only have one Magic Number possibility — 15, and that’s for the third Wild Card spot. Meaning, the Rangers must win all 15 of their remaining games to guarantee a playoff spot. That, of course, also means the teams in front of the Rangers do not lose at all — so there’s some wiggle room. 

And one important caveat to note, the Rangers play a three-game series with the Astros next week, so even though Houston is in front of Texas, at the moment, the Rangers will have control of their own destiny when it comes to tracking down their archrivals.


What are the tiebreaker scenarios?

MLB goes to a head-to-head season record as the first tiebreaker. Texas would lose a tiebreaker to Seattle, as the Rangers went 3-10 against the Mariners this year. But Texas has a 6-4 advantage over the Astros in 2025 with three games remaining against Houston.

In the event of a three-way tiebreaker, the process gets more complicated: MLB starts with highest winning percentage among the three clubs in intradivision games, then goes to highest winning percentage in intraleague games. From there, the tiebreakers goes into the last half of intraleague games.


Who do the Rangers play down the stretch?

Here’s what the Rangers have left:

@ New York Mets: 9/12-9/14
@ Houston Astros: 9/15-9/17
vs. Miami Marlins: 9/19-9/21
vs. Minnesota Twins: 9/23-9/25
@ Cleveland Guardians: 9/26-9/28

Takeaways? The Astros series is obviously crucial next week. On the flip side, the Twins are terrible and the Marlins are not very good either. Getting both of those teams in the final homestand might be a last-second gift, even if the Rangers stumble in New York and Houston. Finishing the season with a three-game series in Cleveland might be tough — the Guardians are also holding out hope of a playoff berth — but it’s a winnable series.