The American League is closely matched with less than a month remaining in the regular season.
All of the teams in the postseason race have strengths and flaws. The Blue Jays are no better or worse than the other playoff contenders. That may be hard to hear and accept, considering they are leading the AL East and battling for the best record in the AL, but it’s easy to identify the good and bad of each of the teams.
The Blue Jays have solid starting pitching depth and are an outstanding defensive team. They have length and depth to their lineup as well. Toronto has the second-best team OPS in baseball and are fourth in runs scored. But the Jays’ bullpen is volatile. Closer Jeff Hoffman is unpredictable and homer-prone. The rest of the bullpen walks too many hitters. The Jays will need to create margin for error for the bullpen if they are going to win in October.
The Detroit Tigers have a versatile roster with emerging stars in outfielder Riley Greene, first baseman Spencer Torkelson, and outfielder Kerry Carpenter. They also boast the best starting pitcher in the American League in Tarik Skubal. The rest of the rotation is decent but not overpowering. The Tigers’ bullpen features different looks and depth and balance. But Detroit’s bullpen doesn’t strike out the opposition (27th), which is important in October. They will once again need manager A.J. Hinch to work his matchup magic to advance in the playoffs.
The Yankees are all about power. They lead the league in runs scored, OPS and home runs. Outfielder Aaron Judge leads the way, but they have many different offensive weapons and can steal bases as well. Max Fried and Carlos Rodon give the Yankees a strong one-two punch atop the rotation and Cam Schlittler, Will Warren and Luis Gil give them options to match up against the opposition. The Yankees are not a good defensive team and they are poor base runners. It cost them last year in the World Series and is one of their vulnerabilities again this year. The biggest concern for the Yankees is the bullpen. They have struggled to find consistency all season long and it isn’t any better now. They will have to outslug their opponents to have any chance to overcome their own inevitable self-inflicted wounds.
The Houston Astros are not nearly the team they have been in recent years. Their starting pitching is just okay after Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. Jason Alexander doesn’t strike out many batters, but he does induce weak contact. They are a better offensive team than what the numbers indicate, bolstered by the addition of Carlos Correa at the trade deadline and the return of Yordan Alvarez from the injured list. But the supporting cast can be a bit inconsistent. They are a solid defensive team, but their bullpen took a big hit with the loss of closer Josh Hader. The Astros still have significant postseason experience and pedigree, but they are limping into the final weeks of the season with deficiencies in multiple areas.
The Seattle Mariners fortified their offence at the trade deadline and improved their already good bullpen with a trade for lefty Caleb Ferguson. But their starting pitching, which was thought to be a strength, is not this year. They are ranked 17th in ERA (4.10) this season compared to first last season (3.38). Offensively, they hit home runs and steal bases, but they struggle (28th) hitting with runners in scoring position (.235). But the Mariners are hot right now and believing in themselves.
The Boston Red Sox have a couple of veteran leaders in Trevor Story and Alex Bregman who are productive and support a collection of young players who have developed quickly over the past couple of seasons. They are a top-five offensive team but they have lost one of their young stars, Roman Anthony, for the rest of the regular season. They have an ace starter in Garrett Crochet and quality starters in Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello. They recently called up two rookie lefties, Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, who have bright futures. The Red Sox can implode defensively on occasion, but they are better this year than last. The bridge from the starters to closer Aroldis Chapman in the ninth inning is where they are vulnerable. They are ranked 24th in bullpen ERA (4.39). The key to beating Boston is to get the starters out of the game and beat up on the middle relievers.
All six of the current qualifiers, have strengths to justify their postseason positions but also weaknesses that could lead to their elimination. I would say that there are several National League teams that would be ranked ahead of the American League’s best.
Here is how I would seed the current playoff qualifiers:
7. Chicago Cubs
10. New York Mets
11. Seattle Mariners
12. Houston Astros
Hoffman continues to struggle
If the Jays are going to advance in the playoffs, Hoffman is going to have to step up his performance. It doesn’t seem like manager John Schneider is going to make any dramatic changes in the bullpen despite Hoffman blowing his seventh save and taking his seventh loss this past week. He has allowed 15 home runs so far this season, a major-league high among relievers.
The Jays don’t really have another experienced option in the closer role. Seranthony Dominguez has some experience getting the last out of the game but never really as a full-time, exclusive guy. He walks too many (34 base on balls in 56.1 IP) to be “the guy.” Yariel Rodriguez has been effective, but he is prone to walks as well. Other than those two, the options would be dramatic: Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, or Eric Lauer. Any of the three would bring potential impact to the role but lack experience.
The best way to protect the bullpen, and especially the closer, is to create offence and margin for error. It would lead to more relaxed and aggressive work by the closer as well as the ability to be imperfect and still hold the advantage in a game.
If the Jays hit, they can keep their starters in the game longer and their relievers in the pen. Offence also helps limit usage of bullpen arms, while also creating margin for error for them. That seems to be the only obvious solution now.
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