2025 WNBA playoffs: Who has best chance to stay alive in Game 2? Ranking the four teams facing elimination

The 2025 WNBA playoffs tipped off on Sunday with a quadruple-header that featured Game 1 of all four first-round series. There wasn’t much drama, however, as the Minnesota Lynx, Las Vegas Aces and Atlanta Dream, the top three seeds, all secured double-digit victories. The only competitive game was the New York Liberty’s overtime win against the Phoenix Mercury, and even that was anticlimactic because the Liberty dominated the extra frame. 

In the WNBA’s best-of-three first-round series, everything happens fast. The four teams that lost on Sunday — the Mercury, Indiana Fever, Seattle Storm and Golden State Valkyries — are already facing elimination. 

This season, the league changed the first-round format from 2-1 to 1-1-1, which is great news for the three lower seeds that are down 1-0 and not so great news for the Mercury, who were the only higher seed to lose. 

The playoff action will resume Tuesday. Here is a look at the upcoming schedule:

Tuesday, Sept. 16

Game 2: No. 3 Dream at No. 6 Fever, 7:30 p.m. — ESPN/fuboGame 2: No. 2 Aces at No. 7 Storm, 9:30 p.m. — ESPN/fubo

Wednesday, Sept. 17

Game 2: No. 4 Mercury at No. 5 Liberty, 7:30 p.m. — ESPN/fuboGame 2: No. 2 Lynx at No. 7 Valkyries, 9:30 p.m. — ESPN/fubo

Before all four series resume, let’s rank the teams that are down 1-0 based on their likelihood of winning Game 2 and forcing a winner-take-all Game 3. 

1. Phoenix Mercury

Game 1 between the Mercury and Liberty was captivating, in part because it was an affront to basketball at times. There was extreme physicality on both sides, 32 combined turnovers and 94 total missed field goals. Neither team was able to reach 70 points in regulation, and there were times where it seemed as though each club was trying to give the game away. 

The Mercury eventually did do just that. Alyssa Thomas missed a potential game-winning layup in the final seconds of regulation, and they completely fell apart in overtime. Their shot selection was poor and they managed just four points on 2 of 9 shooting in the final five minutes. 

While the Mercury now face a must-win game on the road at Barclays Center, where the Liberty were 17-5 during the regular season, they are not out of this series. 

All-Star forward Satou Sabally — nine points on 2 of 17 from the field — was a complete no-show in Game 1, Kahleah Copper spent much of the game in foul trouble and they shot 32.5% as a team from the field. Yet the Mercury easily could have won in regulation. Their hard-nosed defense proved to be an issue for the Liberty, who turned the ball over 21 times, and their 6 of 26 (23.1%) effort from 3-point range was well below their season average of 34%. 

The Mercury are capable of playing much better than they did in Game 1, and while the same can be said of the Liberty, the reigning champions may be without star forward Breanna Stewart. She left Game 1 in overtime with a left knee injury and her status for Game 2 remains unclear. If she’s out, or even hobbled, the Mercury’s chances to even the series will rise significantly. 

2. Indiana Fever

The short-handed Fever jumped out to an early 15-6 lead against the Dream in Game 1, and maintained their advantage until the middle of the second quarter. But even after the Dream went in front, the Fever remained competitive until early in the fourth quarter, when things finally started to get away from them. 

Without Caitlin Clark, who was limited to 13 games this season due to an array of lower-body injuries, the Fever found it very difficult to create good looks against a tough Dream defense. Kelsey Mitchell put up 27 points, but no one else had more than 10 and they shot 34.9% from the field as a team, including 2 of 15 from 3-point range. 

The Fever are still going to have some issues on the offensive end without Clark, Sophie Cunningham and Aari McDonald, but they should be much better on that end in Game 2, when they’ll be able to feed of the energy of their raucous home crowd. 

During the regular season, the Fever boasted a 111.1 offensive rating at home, compared to a 101.4 offensive rating on the road. Notably, they were the best 3-point shooting team in the league at home and the worst 3-point shooting team in the league on the road. 

Fever’s 3-point shooting splits

Home

8.9

23.1

38.5%

1st

Road

7.7

24.9

30.9%

13th

The most encouraging aspect of Game 1 for the Fever was their defensive effort. They were playing quite well on that side of the floor down the stretch in the regular season and held the Dream to 38.6% shooting. If the Fever can put together another solid defensive effort on Tuesday and hit a few more 3s, they have a real chance to even the series. 

3. Seattle Storm

The Storm may not be a typical No. 7 seed on paper, but they sure looked like one in reality on Sunday night. They never led and trailed by as many as 32 in their 25-point loss to the red-hot Aces, who closed the regular season on a 16-game winning streak. 

During the regular season, the Storm were notorious for their inconsistent play. However, they almost always got up for top competition. They went 10-9 against the top-five playoff seeds, including 2-2 versus the Aces, and seven of those losses came by single digits. 

For whatever reason, the Storm weren’t ready to play in Game 1. 

“You can’t score 12 and 13 points in the first half on the road against a team who is red hot,” coach Noelle Quinn said. “We turned the ball over to start the game and that kind of set the tone for what we did offensively. Not a lot of pace, not a lot of intentionality with attacking their (defensive) switches. Can’t win a game like that.”

The Storm have four 2025 All-Stars in their starting lineup and finished with the fourth-best defensive rating (100.1) in the regular season. Do they have the talent to go back home and beat the Aces to keep their season alive? Absolutely. Will they? Who knows. 

4. Golden State Valkyries

The Valkyries punched the Lynx in the mouth early in Game 1 on Sunday afternoon. They quickly built a double-digit lead thanks to physical defense and sharp 3-point shooting, and were ahead by seven at the end of the first quarter. Then, reality hit. 

Once the top-seeded Lynx shook off their slow start, they reminded the Valkyries why they are the top seed and the title favorites. The Lynx put together a largely perfect display of basketball over the final three quarters as they dominated on both ends of the court en route to the biggest win in franchise postseason history (29 points). 

The Valkyries, who became the first expansion team in league history to make the playoffs in their inaugural season, are a terrific story, but this is a mismatch. 

The Lynx had the best defensive rating in the league (97.5) during the regular season and the Valkyries had the worst offensive rating (101.5) of any team to make the playoffs. In Game 1, the Valkyries shot 33.9% from the field, turned the ball over 16 times and managed just 72 points. Across the final three quarters, once the Lynx really cranked up the pressure, the Valkyries didn’t crack the 20-point mark once. 

The Valkyries’ 3-point volume — they took a league-record 29.9 per game during the regular season — will always give them a fighting chance in any game, but it’s hard to see how they keep up with the Lynx in Game 2. 

To make matters worse, they’ve been kicked out of Ballhalla because the Chase Center is hosting the Laver Cup, an indoor tennis tournament. The Valkyries sold out every single regular-season game this season, and their incredible home-court advantage was a large part of their success. While they should still have a good crowd as the SAP Center in San Jose, it won’t be the same as Ballhalla.