Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

Citi analyst Bryan Burgmeier expects investors to be focus on early commentary on the conditions for 2026 during third-quarter earnings season for North American Waste Services providers.

In a client note released before the bell, he reduced his earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) growth forecast for the group to a rise of 8.2 per cent year-over-year from 8.8 per cent previously “as further net price benefits, ramping RNG production & idiosyncratic recycling investments are partially offset by challenging volume comps and lower recycled commodity prices.”

For Vaughan, Ont.-based GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL-N, GFL-T), Mr. Burgmeier sees it currently on track to meet its fiscal 2028 objectives and predicts it could point to high-single-digits to low-double-digits year-over-year EBITDA growth in 2026.

“We forecast EBITDA up 10.0 per cent year-over-year to $2.174-billion as 70 basis points net price expansion in Solid Waste, ramping RNG production $30-million), further EPR benefits ($15-million) and rollover M&A ($25-million from potential $600-million spend in 2H’25) more than offset lower commodity prices (a hit of $10-million),” he said. “We model revenue up 7.0 per cent as up 5.0-per-cent core price and up 2.5-per-cent rollover M&A are partially offset by commodities. We model $935-million adj. FCF after $925-million base capex ($125-million growth capex added-back). Management could reiterate ’28 targets from the Feb ‘25 investor day with underlying drivers intact.”

Keeping his “buy” rating for GFL shares, the analyst raised his target for its NYSE-listed shares to US$61 from US$58. The average is US$56.02.

“We are Buy rated on GFL as the current valuation does not reflect medium-term growth potential and a pure-play Solid Waste portfolio,” he said. “We forecast 9-per-cent ’24-’27 EBITDA CAGR [compound annual growth rate] from a positive net price spread, EPR contracts, and internal investments. With only mid-single-digits market share and a cleaner balance sheet, GFL is positioned to grow revenue low single digits per annum from roll-up acquisitions for the next decade, in our view.”

Mr. Burgmeier said Waste Management Inc. (WM-N) is his top pick in the sector, pointing to its “attractive relative valuation, promising early traction on Healthcare revenue & cost synergies and line-of-sight to accelerating FCF through ’27.”

He trimmed his target for its shares to US$268 from US$275 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$255.86.

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Scotia Capital’s Mario Saric finds it “challenging to assess the merits” of Artis Real Estate Investment Trust (AX-UN-T) proposed deal to buy RFA Capital Holdings Inc., a privately owned mortgage company run by board chair Ben Rodney, through a reverse takeover and brand itself as a financial services company under a new name.

The equity analyst thinks the “unusual deal nature [is] perhaps indicative of limited other (more conventional) options at this stage,” leading to lower his recommendation for Artis units to “sector underperform” from “sector perform” previously.

“If you woke up [Monday] expecting an RPT exchange offer, then kudos to you (we certainly did not!),” he said. “In what may be the ultimate outcome of a Strategic Review that started in Aug/23, Artis and RFA Capital (private company led by AX Chairperson, Mr. Rodney) announced an agreement to merge and form RFA Financial through a share exchange where Artis unitholders will own 68 per cent of the combined entity upon closing (Q1/26). RFA Financial is a private licensed bank that plans to offer a 44 cents per share dividend (approximately 25 per cent lower than AX $0.60). The proposed $0.44 dividend = a 5.8-per-cent yield per RFA presentation vs. 3.6-per-cent peer avg. but below AX 8 per cent (aligns with market concerns re: AX distribution cut).”

“Overall, given the proposed transaction and AX trading near our target price, we believe there are better opportunities within our coverage, with SO ratings on AP, BAM, BN, CRR, and KMP (AP and CRR = top income picks). For AX unitholders seeking diversified REIT exposure, we recommend H&R REIT.”

Mr. Saric said he sees the deal as “a challenged valuation for AX minority unitholders” and called it the potential “end to an underwhelming five year period for AX unitholders.”

“[Samir] Manji was announced as AX CEO in December 2020, with a strategy to narrow the trading discount to NAV,” je said. “That said, the discount remained, resulting in a ‘Strategic Review’ in August 2023. AX total return of negative 17 per cent since December 2020 has lagged the 10 per cent for CAD REITs with AX now ‘selling’ at an 44-per-cent discount to IFRS NAV (vs. 29% in December 2020).

“Overall, we felt the communicated strategy and high leverage struggled to provide longer-term visibility unitholders were looking for and the challenge of a Related-Party fee-based arrangement between Sandpiper (led by Mr. Manji) and AX on selling direct assets (non fee bearing) to acquire listed Real estate securities (fee bearing) proved a difficult obstacle to overcome, in our view.”

His target for Artis units remains $7.50. The average is $7.25.

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With shares up 38 per cent in the past year, investor sentiment around Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) is “clearly constructive,” according to Ventum Capital analyst Amr Ezzat, who continues to see “meaningful upside from here.”

He points to two “potentially transformative catalysts on the horizon” with its bid for a “high-stakes” intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) surveillance contract in Australia and increasing Arctic sovereignty spending.

“Our non-deal roadshow last week reinforced our conviction in EIF’s long-term model, its differentiated position in essential aviation services, and its ability to grow FCF per share and dividends even in a tougher macro environment,” said Mr. Ezzat.

In a research note released late Monday, the analyst said the Winnipeg-based company, which bills itself as a “diversified, acquisition-oriented company focused on opportunities in the Aerospace & Aviation and Manufacturing segments,” is poised to benefit from “real” tailwinds in the defence sector, seeing it “well-positioned as a Canadian partner.”

“Management emphasized that Canada’s growing focus on sovereignty and Arctic readiness is not just political theatre; budgets are growing, timelines are compressing, and EIF is seeing rising engagement from government stakeholders,“ he added. ”In contrast to larger multinationals, EIF offers a uniquely Canadian operating footprint with gravel-runway capabilities, ISR assets already deployed domestically, and strong Indigenous partnerships. The Company is now actively targeting more defense and surveillance work, beyond its bid for Australia’s surveillance mandate. EIF is well-positioned to pursue these opportunities, which are not only strategically aligned but could also be meaningfully accretive over time. While ISR contracts can require upfront capital (particularly where EIF owns the aircraft), they typically offer multi-year visibility and high recurring revenue. Moreover, EIF’s ability to redeploy specialized assets across its aerospace platform provides additional strategic and financial flexibility.”

The analyst estimates its bid for the ISR contract with Australia’s Department of Defence could conservatively generate $60-90-million in annualized free cash flow and “serve as a global validation of EIF’s ISR capabilities.”

“We view this bid as a high-impact free option with meaningful upside,“ he said. ”Importantly, management noted that interest in ISR is not isolated to Australia. EIF is engaged with several European countries exploring similar airborne surveillance solutions. The Company has completed modification of its second ISR aircraft for the UK Home Office contract, with regulatory certification pending and entry into service expected imminently, further bolstering EIF’s execution track record and positioning it well for future awards.”

Believing its valuation disconnect is “still wide,” Mr. Ezzat reaffirmed his “buy” rating and $81 target for Exchange Income shares. The average is $81.31.

“Over the past decade, EIF has predominantly traded at an average 6.9 times EV/NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA multiple (6.4–7.4 times, ±1 S.D.), underlining its stability in the face of market fluctuations,” he explained. “The current trading multiple aligns closely with this 10-year historical average, reflecting a return to equilibrium after periods of volatility. Yet despite a 4.9 times increase in revenues (2.3 times per share) and a 6.7 times increase in EBITDA (3.1 times per share) over the last 10 years, EIF’s multiple has held relatively steady. This lack of expansion strikes us as anomalous given the Company’s exceptionally strong track record. In our view, investors are not fully recognizing the value creation embedded in EIF’s model and are likely applying an implicit “holdco discount” that obscures the true sum-of-the-parts value.

“Considering EIF’s fundamental strategy centred on value creation through M&A, we contend that a scenario analysis focused on M&A presents a more representative valuation of the Company. We derive our $81.00 per share M&A case price target using a DCF analysis.”

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Desjardins Securities analyst Frederic Tremblay sees Atlas Engineered Products Ltd. (AEP-X) “well-positioned to benefit” from the launch of the federal Build Canada Homes program.

“The government’s emphasis on factory-built and modular strongly aligns with AEP’s offsite production of trusses and wall panels in controlled indoor manufacturing facilities,” he said. “The company’s ready-to-install products reduce builders’ on-site labour needs and accelerate completion of projects.

“Following 2Q25 results, which were impacted by a market slowdown as political and tariff uncertainty delayed builder deliveries, we are pleased to see a demand catalyst from Build Canada Homes. Our expectation is that the launch of Build Canada Homes and implementation of its key initiatives can help remove builders’ hesitation and accelerate residential construction.”

Mr. Tremblay also a positive impact on the Nanaimo, B.C.-based company, which is a Canadian leader and consolidator in trusses, wall panels and engineered wood products, from government funding programs for automation.

“Recall that AEP is an early adopter of robotics/automation in the Canadian truss market, with its first automation project (Ontario) still on track to start providing benefits in 2026,” he explained. “We believe that this could be followed by other robotic deployments within AEP’s coast-to-coast footprint in the future.”

The analyst reaffirmed his “buy” rating and target of $1.35 for Atlas shares. The average is

“AEP shares trade at 5.1 times 2026 consensus adjusted EBITDA, below its historical average of 5.7 times and range of 3.2–9.0 times,“ he said. ”We view current levels as an attractive entry point, with the Build Canada Homes catalyst reinforcing AEP’s status as a play on upcoming demand acceleration in the Canadian housing construction market. We also remain pleased with management’s execution of strategic initiatives such as automation and M&A.”

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Following Monday’s announcement it plans to initiate a quarterly dividend (of 2 cents per share) and a renewal of it normal course issuer bid for the cancellation of up to 1.5 million shares, Desjardins Securities analyst Gary Ho said he’s “excited” about CareRx Corp.’s (CRRX-T) “story.”

“We are bullish on the CRRX outlook for new bed adds/RFP pipeline,” he said. “Recall that the company added 3,600 beds in 2Q following bed count declines over the past year. We model 3,700 beds in 2H and 6,000 for each of FY26 and FY27.

“For Ontario in particular (approximately 50 per cent of CRRX beds), the company has a strong 40-per-cent market share. Recall that the Ontario government has a goal to add 58,000 new and updated LTC beds in Ontario by 2028. The government’s revamped LTC development funding scheme in July 2025 increases funding for projects in the GHTA (Capital Funding Program). If we assume 40,000 net new beds are added at CRRX’s 40-per-cent share (16,000 beds); at $4,000/bed in revenue and 10-per-cent EBITDA margin ($6.4-million or 15 per cent of our FY26 EBITDA of $41.6-million); and at mid-teens EBITDA margin (what we believe new beds could potentially generate) — $9.6-million incremental EBITDA or 23 per cent vs our FY26 EBITDA).”

Mr. Ho also thinks the company’s southern Ontario hub-and-spoke pilot of fulfilling bulk subscriptions through large centralized facilities is “tracking well” with 3,000–4,000 beds transferred to its Oakville building.

“We expect a positive readthrough to CRRX’s financial results,” he added. “This facility could take on additional volume (25,000+ capacity), which could drive greater efficiency/ higher margins.

‘We believe CRRX’s early conversations with Ontario’s Minister of Long-Term Care have been encouraging in terms of the fee-per-bed capitation model.”

The analyst kept a “buy” rating and $4.25 target for CareRx shares. The average is $3.96.

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In other analyst actions:

* Seeing U.S. Fed easing supportive for shares of Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI-Q, CIGI-T) “as long as GDP growth holds,” Scotia Capital’s Himanshu Gupta raised his target for its shares to US$185 from US$170 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is US$178.57.

“Commercial Real Estate (R/E) Brokers tend to outperform in easing cycles as long as macro environment does not deteriorate. E.g. Brokers outperformed in the current easing cycle (2024 onward) and in 2019-2022, but underperformed in 2007-08 which coincided with a recession,” he said. “There are expectations of 5 to 6 interest rate cuts in the U.S. in the next 12 months, and Scotia Economics expects Real GDP growth to be up 1.4 per cent in 2026 (vs up 1.8 per cent in 2025). This is a good set-up for CIGI stock to work. … Cumulative performance during Tightening is better for commercial real estate brokers than the Easing period, mainly due to outsized performance during 2004-07 tightening period.

“CIGI underperforms during Steepening Yield Curve and outperforms during Flattening: Unlike mixed results during Fed tightening vs easing, it is fairly evident that CIGI (and peers like CBRE) have outperformed during Flattening Yield Curve periods and underperformed the broad index (S&P 500) during Steepening periods (especially during Bull Steepener). A Bull Steepener is a type of yield curve movement where short-term interest rates fall faster than long-term interest rates, and there is a possibility of this scenario into the next year as rate cuts are materialized.”