Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
LNG opportunities
Scotiabank analyst Robert Hope looks to the future of Canadian LNG expansion and the companies that benefit most in a report called Canadian LNG Investment: Dare to Dream,
“LNG Canada continues to ramp up and Woodfibre is under construction. We expect the next-most-likely project to proceed is LNG Canada Phase II given it is a brownfield expansion with an existing pipeline connection. A final investment decision (FID) in 2026 could put this in service in 2031. We see potential for Ksi Lisims to be sanctioned in 2026 and enter service in late 2031 or 2032. A sanctioning of Ksi Lisims is still far from certain given some local opposition as well as the cost environment. A smaller expansion (2.8 million tonnes per annum) of Fortis’ Tilbury facility is under evaluation in the lower mainland as well. Any incremental LNG development would require additional midstream investment in both B.C. and Alberta. We see this as most impactful for ALA-T, KEY-T, PPL-T gathering and processing and NGL assets. It could also require further large-scale pipeline investments in the region by TRP-T (NGTL), and ENB-T (Westcoast)”
Bullish optimism
BofA chief equity and quant strategist Savita Subramanian is (mostly) bullish, and I’m giving her bonus points for using the word ‘aplomb’,
“Corporates have navigated policy uncertainty with aplomb, and almost giddy 2Q guidance and revisions argue for higher 2H growth. Big revenue surprises in Tech show AI monetization evidence, and tariff mitigation tactics outside of Tech (sourcing shifts, cost cutting, productivity) drove a broader beat. From here, trade deals and a resumption – perhaps even a pull forward – in capex could drive stronger growth. We are slightly above bottom-up consensus in 2025 but are watching for inventory depletion (pre[1]orders won’t last forever) and labor weakness limiting price pass through as risk factors … 2026’s tail risk is, in our view, positive: outsized nominal GDP translating into sales growth, efficiency translating into profits growth, a reflation cycle in goods (bigger than services for the S&P 500) and real wage growth in skilled manufacturing amid a broader capex cycle … Our forecasts imply a small deceleration in 2026 growth driven mostly by a sharp drop in Tech and Comm Svcs … The full impact of tariffs may be a 2H story: 2Q’s tariff mitigation tactics may not be sustainable … Inflation risk means winners and losers. Cyclical sectors with positive inflation gearing (Energy, Materials, etc.) should benefit but Staples, Health Care and other labor-intensive areas could buckle”
Home construction
BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic assesses the mix of domestic housing construction,
“Canadian housing starts fell to 246k annualized units in August after surging above 290k in the prior month. Housing starts are obviously choppy and can come in bursts, but the twelve-month average (252k) is quite resilient despite tough market conditions. Some notable themes below the surface: * Multifamily continues to dominate construction activity by a more than 4:1 margin over single[1]detached homes. * Rentals continue to dominate within the multifamily segment. While rentals and condos were effectively even in mid-2024 at around 75k units per year, the former has risen to above 100k, while the latter has sunk to just above 50k. * Relative to trends leading into the tightening cycle, Ontario is down sharply, B.C. and Quebec are mostly steady, while the Prairies and Atlantic Canada have strengthened”
“BMO: Fits and housing starts” – (research excerpt, chart) Bluesky
Consumers are demanding affordable detached homes while developers, in part because of the regulatory environment, continue to build apartments and condos.
Bluesky post of the day
While on the dollar, this from The Economist article, “China is ditching the dollar, fast.”
To be clear, China is nowhere close to replacing the dollar as a reserve currency — and won’t be anytime soon.
What it is doing, though, is slowly eroding the dollar’s influence by building pipes…
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— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm.bsky.social) September 16, 2025 at 11:49 AMDiversion
“How Often Should You Replace Your Mattress and Bedding?” – Wired