Favorites dominated in Week 1 of the NFL season, winning 13 of 16 games for an 81.2% success rate. Week 2 saw more competitive results, with favorites winning nine of 16 games for a 56.2% success rate. What does that mean for Week 3? Which teams should you be considering when you’re looking to place individual bets or building NFL parlays?

Here are two Week 3 NFL parlays — one composed of favorites and one composed of underdogs.

Week 3 money line favorites parlay

Backing heavy NFL betting favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a 3-team NFL money line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you’re not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you’re also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.

According to BetMGM data, NFL money line favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-2024, NFL money line favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%.

San Francisco 49ers over Arizona Cardinals

Oddsmakers have set the San Francisco 49ers as 2.5-point favorites, which seems relatively low for them. There isn’t a significant difference in skill level among the quarterbacks. Mac Jones stepped in last week and delivered 279 passing yards and three touchdowns, demonstrating poise and an ability to move the chains in critical situations. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ defense ranks 21st in total yards allowed while playing prevent defense for most of the fourth quarter in Week 2. Arizona swept the 49ers last season and will now play its first outdoor game. The 49ers are 2-0 and will be playing their home opener. I like this setup for the 49ers.

Baltimore Ravens over Detroit Lions

The Baltimore Ravens’ dominant rushing attack will control the line of scrimmage and keep Detroit’s high-powered offense off the field, wearing down the Lions’ defensive front. Baltimore’s offensive line, anchored by left tackle Ronnie Stanley, creates sustainable running lanes for Lamar Jackson and company, forcing Detroit to stack the box and opening opportunities in the passing game. Baltimore has yet to allow more than 16 points in a game, owns a top-three rush defense, and faces Detroit’s offense, averaging only 285 yards per contest. Lamar Jackson has been nearly flawless against NFC opponents, posting a 23–1 record in interconference play. This is the most talented roster in the league, and Baltimore should cruise to another victory.

Kansas City Chiefs over New York Giants 

Despite New York’s strong pass rush, Patrick Mahomes‘ track record, and Kansas City’s urgency to avoid a 0-3 start, give them a 71% win projection in simulations. The New York Giants have significant issues in their secondary, and Andy Reid is an exceptional coach who will likely exploit this weakness. Kansas City will look like a completely different team as they drop down in class while the Giants step up after their high-scoring three-point loss at Dallas last week. This one seems too easy.

Week 3 money line underdogs parlay

A very popular option is available if you’re willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations.

Denver Broncos over Los Angeles Chargers

I went against the Chargers this past Monday night, and it cost us the underdog parlay win. I am fading them again. They have played two straight divisional games and will now face the Denver Broncos, whom they beat twice last season, both one-possession games. The Chargers lack a true home-field advantage, and the market has overrated them through two weeks. Denver should be highly motivated after last week’s game; they would have won without a questionable penalty on the game-winning field goal. This is a strong money line for a team anticipated to make the playoffs this season.

New York Jets over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There hasn’t been a huge (+200+ or higher) upset this season, as the favorites have been dominating. Week 3 has historically produced some big shockers, and I can see a clear path in this matchup. The Jets’ defensive line, led by Quinnen Williams, Jermaine Johnson, and Will McDonald, has been their most consistent unit through two weeks. Baker Mayfield might run into some trouble, especially after having a challenging game against the Texans, where he faced a lot of pressure from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. On the other hand, Justin Fields is out with a concussion after a rough outing in Week 2. That might actually work out for our purposes. Veteran backup Tyrod Taylor provides a stabilizing presence that could surprise the Tampa Bay defense, which may take him for granted. The Bucs played a physical game on Monday Night Football and now return home on short rest. They are just 14-12 at Raymond James Stadium since 2022 — a great spot for an upset.

Cleveland Browns over Green Bay Packers

We nearly won with the Browns in Week 1, and I’m back for more. Cleveland features Myles Garrett, arguably the NFL’s most disruptive defensive player. He has already recorded 3.5 sacks through two games and is being mentioned early in the running for another Defensive Player of the Year award. Green Bay’s offensive line is dealing with significant injuries, potentially missing both left guard Aaron Banks and right tackle Zach Tom. Beyond Garrett, Cleveland’s defensive line has been exceptional, grading as the best in the league at both stopping the run and rushing the passer. This front seven can neutralize Green Bay’s ground game, which has been crucial to its early success, forcing Jordan Love into obvious passing situations where Garrett and company can pin their ears back. Playing at home with their backs against the wall, the Browns have nothing to lose against a Packers team that might be looking ahead or feeling overconfident after their dominant start. Cleveland’s defense can keep this contest low-scoring and close, creating opportunities for late-game heroics at enormous odds. You heard it here first.