Investing.com — Morgan Stanley analysts told investors in a note Wednesday that early signs point to stronger demand for Apple’s iPhone 17 compared with last year’s iPhone 16 launch, supported by both longer lead times and improved supply.
“iPhone 17 lead times are tracking in-line to higher Y/Y, but early iPhone supply is better Y/Y, meaning early iPhone 17 demand is likely up Y/Y (vs. flat FY26 shipment ests),” Morgan Stanley wrote. The bank reiterated its Overweight rating on Apple shares.
According to the analysts, “our iPhone 17 lead time analysis suggests that early demand for the iPhone 17 models is stronger than at the onset of the iPhone 16 cycle last year, a positive early indication that iPhone replacement cycles could be stabilizing and upgrade rates could be improving Y/Y.”
As of Sept. 16, four days after pre-orders began, “the average iPhone 17 (incl Air) lead time in the US is ~15 days, up 7 days vs. last Friday when pre-orders started, and up 0.3 days (or 2%) vs. the same point in the iPhone 16 cycle last year,” Morgan Stanley said.
International markets are said to be showing an even stronger trend, with average lead times extending 3 days week-on-week and 3 days year-on-year in China, Japan, the U.K., France, and Germany.
The firm also highlighted better production this cycle. “Early iPhone 17 supply is more sufficient than last year, a testament to better Y/Y production yields and higher productivity in India, where Apple is building/shipping all new model iPhones at launch for the first time in history,” the analysts noted.
While cautioning that lead times historically lack predictive power for 12-month shipments, Morgan Stanley said the combination of stronger supply and longer lead times “is informative enough to be positively biased on the iPhone 17 and Apple shares.”
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