You’re not playing football until October, as Bill Belichick once said. With the modern preseason status quo, that’s never been truer. NFL teams across the league are discovering who they are in real time, in games that count, and the week-to-week performances reflect the learning curve. Several teams have performed Jekyll and Hyde routines through two games, but certain early surprises have repeated enough that it could be time to take them at face value. Here’s a look at some of the biggest about-faces, along with what seems to be holding true headed into Week 3.

This week’s staff picks for all 16 games are at the bottom.

🔁Whiplash🔁Russell Wilson, professional heaver

At this point in his career, Wilson’s primary value proposition at quarterback is his uncanny ability to conjure deep ball magic. After a truly uninspiring Week 1, where he finished 27th in air yards per attempt (5.7) and 30th in deep pass percentage, the 36-year-old unleashed a redemption performance in Week 2. A sampler platter:

Wilson threw for 450 yards, tallying 12.7 air yards per attempt and leading all quarterbacks in deep throws. Eleven of his 41 passes went 20 or more yards in the air, which once again turned a presumed dud of a game into a thriller. Looking at the passing charts, it’s pretty clear the Giants wanted to get as stylistically far away from their season opener as they could:

In the process, they may have found their best chance at competing this season.

Oh no, we’re the Jets again! 

New York regressed in everything, everywhere, all at once. Justin Fields stockholders are in shambles, as not only was he knocked out of the game in the fourth quarter, but the stat sheet barely indicates he was there at all. Three completions (only one to a wideout) on 11 attempts, 27 yards and a passer rating of 39.6. His EPA per dropback was -1.01. For anyone who doesn’t know, “EPA” is Expected Points Added — meaning every time Fields dropped back to pass, the Jets lost a point off their predicted point total.

Gang Green gave up 70 yards on missed tackles and managed only eight pressures on 30 Josh Allen dropbacks while taking 2.86 seconds for that pressure to arrive. Only six other teams took longer to pressure the quarterback, and the second-slowest among them were the Bills, which makes Fields’ day look even worse. Breece Hall was very nearly outrushed by two QBs on his own team, outgaining backup Tyrod Taylor by a mere eight yards. In terms of “coming down to Earth,” this was an extinction-level impact, and anyone who didn’t day trade Jets players in fantasy better earmark Week 4 against the Dolphins as the next and perhaps final sell-high moment.

Phew, we’re still the Lions

It turns out Ben Johnson was, in fact, what Detroit’s offense was missing. Certainly, the return to form wasn’t all fueled by revenge against their former coordinator — the Bears defense is injured, undermanned and most importantly NOT the Packers defense — but it sure felt like the Lions made it their business to show everyone the musicians make the orchestra, not the conductor:

That was Detroit’s playcall on fourth-and-goal, while they were up 45-21 with eight minutes to go. Yes, Dan Campbell likes to go for the throat on fourth down. In this case, though, the Bears didn’t have anything resembling a throat remaining. That there was a message that the band plays on.

The 52-point symphony eased everyone’s concerns. The box score was tremendous, the fantasy stats and prop bet overs were delicious, but more important was the proof that the Lions could still get down like that. You can wave away a bad week when your opponent reveals a jack-in-the-box surprise elite defense, but then you need to put a bad defense on its back.

Lions ball carriers posted an astounding 3.55 yards before contact per carry, and their passing game picked up 163 yards after the catch. Jared Goff was never sacked and was pressured just six times all afternoon. Their Week 3 opponent, Baltimore, has thus far been 20th in pressure rate and allowed the fifth-most yards after the catch. Detroit is a 32.5 points per game team through two weeks, which is almost exactly what they averaged in 2024 (33.2).

➡️Holding Steady⬅️Jalen Hurts does not do in-between

While there’s always offseason talk about Philadelphia opening up the pass game and moving beyond their souped-up wildcat scheme, the league’s defenses have yet to necessitate such a change from the defending champs. Jalen Hurts is free to do what he does best, which is demoralize teams with his legs, release a barrage of relentlessly effective short passes and uncork a deep ball once those first two things have lulled the defense into complacency:

Hurts has thrown 45 passes this season. Forty of those have traveled less than 10 yards in the air. The other five? More than 20 yards in the air. He has not thrown a single intermediate pass. Last season, he attempted 75, but three of his five interceptions came on those throws. Perhaps the Eagles took a look at ROI and decided if they’re going to throw past the sticks, it might as well be for all the marbles. Given that the Eagles are 2-0 and never looked threatened in either win, don’t expect that to suddenly change.

Miami is lost 

In defense of the Dolphins, the on-field product improved to reach minimum acceptable standards, but there’s still a vast gulf between success and their present state. For example, take the fourth-quarter stretch that ultimately doomed their Week 2 effort. After De’Von Achane had a long TD called off because he stepped out of bounds, Miami strung together a sequence of mistakes that good teams simply don’t make when down three points in the final minutes. A delay of game, an incompletion, a false start, a short pass, a sack and an interception. Between the playcalling, lack of execution and absence of situational awareness, they hit dysfunction bingo. It’s bad practice to react to early spreads, but Buffalo being favored by 12.5 at home seems conservative given that Miami’s biggest achievement through two weeks has been being on time and in the correct city.

Sir Daniel Stephen Jones III

This is where you’d expect the Shaq meme, but the truth is, we were all very familiar with Daniel Jones’ game. This is not that. This is a whole new thing. Through two games, Jones leads all quarterbacks in EPA, has a passer rating of 111.1 (sixth), and is second in yards despite being 16th attempts and 18th in dropbacks. More significantly, he’s been impossibly cool under fire. Jones has seen 44 blitzes, 16 more than the next closest quarterback. He’s responded by throwing for 398 yards, a touchdown and no picks with a league-leading plus-17 EPA when blitzed, and is one of only four quarterbacks with a positive EPA when under pressure. The other three are Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield. He’s averaged 8.4 air yards per attempt, which is 10th, and more than 20 percent of his completions have been on intermediate or deep passes. The Colts are 2-0 for the first time since Jones was 12, and the numbers show it’s because Indy is working through their quarterback, not around him.

📺What To Watch📺

Only a few games grab the eye going into Week 3, but two should be appointment television. A third offers a touch of chaos for those so inclined.

Rams at Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Hurts has thrown for 252 yards in two games, the Eagles haven’t scored through the air, and neither thing has mattered at all. Playing Philadelphia is like being swallowed by a boa constrictor. The end is assured as soon as it begins, and the in-between is so excruciatingly slow that even the snake looks miserably bored.

The Rams came the closest to knocking Philly out last postseason, and with better weather, they might have pulled it off. Los Angeles has scored five of its six touchdowns on the ground, which to this point has been the Eagles’ vulnerability. Philadelphia has the fifth-worst stuff rate in the league and allows the fourth-most yards before contact (1.89). Defensively, the Rams will do everything they can to make Hurts’ arm a factor, since last time they played, the Eagles ran for 285 yards and three scores while Hurts completed 15 passes for 128 yards and seven sacks. If anything, watch this one to see if someone can force the Eagles to run an offense with more than one dimension.

Bengals at Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
On one hand, it will never cease to amaze how steep the dropoff is from starter to backup quarterback in the NFL. On the other, the degree to which Cincinnati embraces its “break glass” protocol is truly admirable. Joe Burrow is out. They say for three months, but none of the 25 players who had the surgery he’s having returned the same season, and five of the 25 never returned at all. It is definitively Jake Browning Time, and the assignment for Browning is elegantly simple: You will put the ball into the hands of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. There are no qualifiers to that. The how doesn’t matter. The stats do not matter. Things like sound strategy, Browning’s feelings or watchability are luxuries Cincinnati can no longer afford, and they know it. It’s feed the big dogs or die trying.

This is why Chase and Higgins accounted for two-thirds of Browning’s yards and more than half of his targets and completions. Incompletion? Who cares? Go again. Interception? Not a problem, do it again. Another interception? Psssh. Let it fly. Another? *taps sign* Chase and Higgins are two of the hardest takedowns in the NFL. The more they have the ball, the more chances they have to YAC their way to the end zone. Browning was in for 2.5 quarters, had three picks and a passer rating of 69.9. Higgins and Chase had 107 YAC, a pair of TDs and the Bengals won the game. Brian Flores will surely try to take them away, but I’m not sure he comprehends the lengths to which Browning and Cincinnati are willing to debase themselves to achieve their goal.

For their part, the Vikings surely don’t want their franchise quarterback playing on a bum ankle after missing a year with a shredded knee, but the alternative is Carson Wentz, who has attempted 43 NFL passes since 2023. He also may not have Aaron Jones in the backfield, so this could get very strange very quickly. Worth a watch!

Lions at Ravens

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC and ESPN

Nothing settles the stomach like a hot cup of the Bears or Browns. After calamitous openers, the Ravens and Lions have calibrated the instruments and dialed in on the correct frequency, which means Week 3’s contest in Baltimore should be the game of the week. The Ravens are still surrendering a lot of yards, so expect Detroit to move the ball; but Baltimore has been deceptively tough to score on. Three of the seven TDs they’ve allowed came in the ill-fated fourth quarter against Buffalo. Detroit is holding teams under 200 yards passing and is tied for second with -.26 EPA allowed per rush. At 1-1, this feels like the true start of the season for both teams.

Other games of noteBroncos at Chargers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Los Angeles gets to play a home game for the first time this season, and with Justin Herbert looking polished, the Broncos defense will provide a litmus test for whether Chargers fans should start believing or settle in for another also-ran campaign.

Cowboys at Bears

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
It was always going to be a process for Chicago in Year 1 with Ben Johnson, but even in rebuilding seasons, there are still bellwether moments. Week 3 feels like one of them, since the Bears have thus far blown a fourth-quarter lead to a rookie in his debut and been thoroughly embarrassed by their coach’s former team. Attention should be paid to how both Johnson and the team show up against a beatable Dallas team in Chicago. There’s a difference between a bad season and a bad season that portends better days. This game will go a long way to showing which one Chicago is having.

Staff picks for every Week 3 game

(Photo of Daniel Jones: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)