Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North writers tackle the pressing questions and biggest storylines around the division. This week’s focus is on the quarterbacks and adequately protecting them.
We have to start in Cincinnati with the division’s biggest Week 2 development. With Joe Burrow sidelined for at least three months following toe surgery, are you writing off the playoffs for the 2-0 Bengals, or can they win enough to have meaningful games when he potentially returns?
Paul Dehner Jr. (Cincinnati Bengals): Would that noise be the soft drumbeat of hope drowned out by the sounds of irate townsfolk with torches screaming threats and surrounding Paycor Stadium? That’s the noise I’m hearing right now in the aftermath of Burrow’s injury.
To answer the question, Jake Browning with these weapons can win a fair share of games. This staff can recalibrate the offense around what Browning does best, and they still have Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and company. The concern emerges when more attrition hits and/or the defense stops getting turnovers. Browning can’t lift all boats, but he can steer the ship.
I’m more confident in the Bengals to win 10 games than seven this year, but they’ll likely end up somewhere in between. Perhaps we have the drama of a potential Burrow return in December with the team still relevant, but there are too many variables to go there yet.
Jeff Zrebiec (Baltimore Ravens): If Burrow can return in early-to-mid December and is healthy for the final three or four regular-season games — and I know there’s warranted skepticism that will be the case — the Bengals still have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. Let’s say 10 or 11 wins gets you at least a wild-card spot. They already have two. So that means to be in striking position for the playoffs when Burrow potentially returns, the Bengals will need to win something like five or six of their next 11 games.
A tough task for Browning? Sure. Hardly inconceivable, though. The Bengals are loaded with talent on offense. Their defense should settle in more. Browning has won games before, but this needn’t be all on his shoulders. I think they can stay afloat long enough for Burrow to come back and give them a final playoff push.
Mike DeFabo (Pittsburgh Steelers): It doesn’t look good. Let’s say Burrow misses exactly three months and returns for Week 15. I can see the Bengals winning three or four games without him — a coin flip this week against the Minnesota Vikings, Week 8 against the New York Jets, Week 9 against the Chicago Bears and Week 12 against the New England Patriots. Even then, Burrow would probably need to run the table against the Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns over the final four weeks of the season for Cincinnati to reach 10 wins and sneak in as a wild-card team.
It just feels like there’s too little margin for error, and the Bengals count on Burrow too much for it to happen. I’m starting to believe that, for the second year in a row, Burrow will lead a furious, late-season rally only to fall one game short of qualifying for the playoffs.
Zac Jackson (Cleveland Browns): Browning is at least a competent backup, and maybe better than that, so I’m not writing anything off. It’s always going to be competitive both in the North and across the AFC, and the injuries and other unforeseen twists are just beginning. I don’t think much of the Bengals’ defense, but guys like Chase and Higgins give them a chance to win shootouts. I say they’ll still be in the mix come December.
Burrow, Brock Purdy, J.J. McCarthy, Justin Fields and Jayden Daniels are all dealing with health issues, some more significant than others. This is an appropriate time to ask: How confident should your team be in its backup quarterback situation?
Dehner: The Bengals are forced to be confident, but I don’t think that’s false bravado to keep the spirits of the team intact. Browning went 4-3 down the stretch in 2023 with this similar cast of weapons and an equally dreadful defense. This staff knows what he does well and what chapters of the playbook to tap into to augment that.
The fall from Burrow to Browning is just so drastic because of everything Burrow does, but Browning has trust within the building. That was only bolstered by his 15-play, 92-yard game-winning drive to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Zrebiec: I think everyone knows if Lamar Jackson has to miss an extended stretch of the season, the Ravens are cooked. So much of the team and how it plays is built around Jackson’s unique skill set, and it’s difficult for the Ravens to win without him.
However, if Jackson has to miss a short stretch, they should have enough confidence that Cooper Rush is capable of leading a few wins. He’s a veteran who knows how to manage a game and keep the offense moving, and he’s won before. The Dallas Cowboys were 9-5 in games Rush started. The Ravens’ roster is good enough around the quarterback position to compensate for a short Jackson absence. But a long one? It would be time to start looking toward the draft.
DeFabo: Mason Rudolph thought his NFL career was coming to an end and was considering going into real estate in 2023. Then, he unexpectedly went from the third QB on the depth chart to the spark behind a three-game winning streak that helped the Steelers qualify for the playoffs. That late-season surge has inflated Rudolph’s approval rating in Pittsburgh to the point that some fans here wanted to see him get a starting chance this year.
Let’s pump the brakes a little. In reality, he’s a perfectly fine backup, and that’s about it. If Aaron Rodgers is injured this year, I have confidence that Rudolph can be a steady game manager for a week or two, but only if the defense and running game support him appropriately.
Jackson: Because the Browns probably only have backup quarterbacks, this one is complicated for me. Though we’re just now getting to Week 3, there’s a portion of the fan base already clamoring for rookie backup Dillon Gabriel to replace Joe Flacco. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski says it’s too early for that, and I agree. As for how confident the Browns should be in Gabriel, then much later this season in fellow rookie Shedeur Sanders, it’s hard to say.
Gabriel had minimal work this summer with the No. 1 offense or against another team’s regulars, and Sanders had almost none. The only sure thing is that this will continue to be a talking point around the Browns going forward.
Kevin Stefanski said a QB change is not the Browns’ focus right now, despite Joe Flacco struggling mightily in Week 2 vs. the Ravens. (Ishika Samant / Getty Images)
It seems that a common denominator with all four teams in the division is offensive line inconsistency. Is there any hope things will get significantly better, or do you expect the issues to persist all year?
Dehner: The problem here is that the depth was probably more concerning than the starters. This team finds itself in deep trouble if either Orlando Brown Jr. or Amarius Mims goes down. Cody Ford isn’t meant to be playing tackle, and the Bengals have no other reserve at the position worth speaking about.
There are similar problems on the interior with unproven or below-standard linemen. They actually felt all right about the starting group, despite everything that happened. They just need everyone to stay healthy. The potential for it to unravel to unplayable levels is one or two injuries away.
Zrebiec: Right tackle Roger Rosengarten is a second-year player, left guard Andrew Vorhees is in his third year and right guard Daniel Faalele is in his second year of playing inside. Presumably, all three will improve. For now, the Ravens don’t think they have better options. They don’t see Ben Cleveland as an every-week starter. Corey Bullock, a second-year undrafted free agent, primarily played center this summer.
Rookie third-round pick Emery Jones Jr. has yet to have his first practice with the team after offseason shoulder surgery, so he’s not close to being a solution. I’m not sure teams will be making quality guards available before the trade deadline, either. The Ravens will probably have to navigate the situation all year while hoping it doesn’t doom them in the playoffs.
DeFabo: Omar Khan did his part. During his first three years as general manager, he spent two first-round picks, a second and a fourth on the offensive line with the hope of turning a weakness into a strength. Yet, the offensive line is still one of the worst position groups on the team, if not the worst. The Steelers can’t run the ball efficiently. Their 3.0 yards per carry is the third worst in the NFL. They’re also struggling to protect their 41-year-old quarterback, allowing the fourth-most sacks (seven).
I question player development more than anything. These young offensive linemen had the talent and upside to be drafted early. It’s up to the coaches to unlock it and get everyone on the same page. They haven’t. For that reason, I think we’re going to be talking about the O-line for the rest of this year… and next year… and the year after.
Jackson: If the Browns can’t get at least competent offensive tackle play, their bad offense will continue to sink. In the bigger picture, struggling left tackle Dawand Jones is the only starting Cleveland offensive lineman who’s signed past this season. The Browns aren’t in full-on emergency mode with their line quite yet, but it’s not been a good start, and all four of the team’s best and most experienced starters are over 30. If I had to pick one, I’d be forced to say that, yes, the struggles will likely continue.
It’s an AFC North vs. NFC North Week 3 with a side of Steelers-New England Patriots. On Sunday, the Browns are at home against the Green Bay Packers, and the Bengals travel to face the Vikings. The Ravens host the Detroit Lions on Monday night. Can the AFC North go 3-1 this week?
Dehner: I’ve been a fan of Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel in New England. I picked them to make the playoffs, so give me the Patriots. The Packers were my Super Bowl pick, and they have exceeded even my expectations. They should roll. Give me the Ravens over the Lions at home.
The Bengals’ defense has feasted on turnovers to this point, and Carson Wentz has a propensity to throw interceptions. Still, I’ll trust Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores to give this offensive line and Browning fits in a raucous environment more than any other elements of this game.
Zrebiec: I’d say 2-2 is probably more likely. I feel pretty good about the Steelers bouncing back against the Patriots. As good as that Browns defense is, I can’t fathom a way that they pull the upset. The Ravens are 22-3 under John Harbaugh in prime-time home games, and Jackson’s mastery of NFC teams is well-documented. I think the Ravens win a close one.
The toughest game to call is Bengals-Vikings, and it’s tempting to go Cincinnati, because aside from one quarter, Minnesota has looked terrible. However, Wentz can’t be more turnover-prone than McCarthy, can he? I think Flores’ blitz-happy ways cause issues for Browning, and the Vikings win a close one.
DeFabo: The Steelers have problems, but the Patriots are in the midst of a rebuild and have more. I like the Steelers to win a one-score game. The Packers should roll past the Browns. In a battle of backup QBs, I’m going with the better defense and will pick the Vikings over the Bengals. I also think the Lions are still figuring things out with a new set of coordinators. I’ll take the Ravens.
Jackson: Yes, I think 3-1 is realistic. I haven’t seen enough of the Steelers to know their issues well, but I know Mike Tomlin’s teams generally respond well to early-season failures. I’ll take the Steelers in a close one, the Bengals in a close and wild one and the Ravens to win a Monday night shootout. I expect better from the Browns than we saw last week, but I expect the Packers to win, 16-10.
(Top photo of Jake Browning: Kirk Irwin / Getty Images)