Blake Krass breaks down his best bets, predictions and picks for the Week 3 NFL slate on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The NFL season is here, and there are some great games on the Week 3 slate. This is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 3. You can place all of these bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 3 Best Bets
This is one of the scarier bets to make this weekend, which can often mean it’s the right one to make. The Packers have lived up to, and even exceeded, expectations through two games. They dominated their main NFC North competition in Week 1, beating the Lions by 14 points. They followed that up by defeating last season’s NFC runner-up, the Washington Commanders, by two scores. However, the reality is that teams don’t win by multiple possessions all season in the NFL, even if they are one of the best teams in the league. This could be a tough test for Green Bay traveling to Cleveland in Week 3.
The Browns have been better than their 0-2 record reflects through two games. They shut down the Bengals’ offense in Week 1, holding Cincinnati to 141 yards of offense in the loss. Then, despite ultimately getting blown out, the Browns actually outgained the Ravens 322-242. Cleveland ranks eighth in the NFL in defensive success rate this season and should limit Green Bay’s scoring. As long as Joe Flacco can avoid turning the ball over, the Browns should keep this game competitive at home. Home underdogs of seven points or more are 18-1-2 ATS in Weeks 1-9 since 2023, an incredible trend for Cleveland.
Chiefs/Falcons Moneyline Parlay (-111)
The Chiefs have started the season 0-2 for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. They have had a tough start, between traveling to Brazil to play a division rival on the rise and having to face the defending Super Bowl champions. This will be by far their easiest game so far this season against the Giants. The Giants’ defense has not been as solid a unit as some predicted, ranking 28th in the NFL in defensive EPA/play. The Chiefs should sufficiently out-coach the Giants’ staff, and the team with Mahomes has a massive advantage over the team with Russell Wilson. Since 2017, the Giants are a remarkable 1-11 SU in night games. The Chiefs need this one, and they should get it against the Giants.
The Falcons look to be a real threat in the NFC this year if they can stay healthy. Michael Penix Jr. seems like a hit at quarterback through two weeks, ranking ninth in the NFL in adjusted EPA/play. Bijan Robinson should be a serious contender for NFL Offensive Player of the Year this season as well. The Falcons’ defense has been incredible, ranking first in the NFL in defensive EPA/play. They should completely shut down Bryce Young and the dreadful Panthers’ offense. The Falcons should build off their momentum from last week and move to 2-1 on the season.
Six-Point Teaser: Bengals +9 & Patriots +7.5
One of the most fascinating games of the weekend is the Bengals against the Vikings. Both teams will be using backup quarterbacks already in Week 3. Jake Browning will be starting for Cincinnati after leading the team to a comeback win over the Jaguars last week. Browning showed in that second half that he is capable of running this offense. He was fantastic in 2023, during his only extended starting stretch of his career. He ranked seventh among qualified quarterbacks that season in EPA+CPOE composite, ahead of the likes of Lamar Jackson, Mahomes and Jared Goff. This is a coin flip game between two teams with backup quarterbacks, but Browning has shown more to be optimistic about in recent years than Carson Wentz. For that reason, I will take the Bengals teased up over a touchdown. This should be a tight game, no matter who wins it.
The other leg of this teaser is the Patriots up to +7.5. The Patriots picked up a solid win over the Dolphins in Week 2. While the Dolphins have issues, it’s always tough to win a divisional road game. That game should give Drake Maye confidence heading into this matchup with the Steelers. The Pittsburgh defense has been poor to start the season, giving up 32 points to the Jets and 31 points to the Seahawks. They allowed the Jets to gash them on the ground, then were hit from every angle by Seattle. The Pittsburgh offense hasn’t been great either, ranking 23rd in offensive EPA/play. The Patriots should, at the very least, keep this game within a touchdown.
TreVeyon Henderson Longest Reception o12.5 Yards (-105)
TreVeyon Henderson has had a slow start to his NFL career. The Patriots’ second-round pick was expected to compete with Rhamondre Stevenson for touches, but so far, Stevenson has gotten the bulk of the work. One area where Henderson has gotten some action has been in the passing game. He has eight catches for 54 yards through the first two weeks of the season. In each game, he has had a reception of at least 13 yards. This week, the Patriots should use him in the passing game against the Steelers. In Week 1, Breece Hall had a 33-yard reception against Pittsburgh, and in Week 2, Kenneth Walker III took one for 13 yards. With T.J. Watt rushing off the edge, Josh McDaniels should try to draw up some easy throws for Maye, like using Henderson in the screen game. The Steelers have given up a catch of 13 yards or more to a running back in each of their first two games, and Henderson has caught a pass of 13 yards or more in each of his first two games. All signs point to Henderson getting over this number on Sunday.