Canadian researchers are sounding the alarm about the country’s worsening climate crisis after a new report found that Canada has barely reduced its carbon emissions in 2024 and is predicting that the country won’t reach its 2030 emission targets.
On Thursday, the Canadian Climate Institute (CCI) published a study with early estimates on the country’s 2024 emissions, revealing that there was practically no progress from the year before.
As seen in the study, oil and gas emissions, which represent 31 per cent of Canada’s total emissions, were 1.9 per cent higher than in 2023, with oilsands emissions growing 3.4 per cent.
Meanwhile, transportation, which accounts for 23 per cent of total emissions, fell by only 0.1 per cent, showing almost no progress. Building emissions went down a bit more, falling by 1.2 per cent and representing 12 per cent of the total amount. In addition, heavy industry and electricity dropped by 0.6 and 1.9 per cent, respectively, also not showing any significant progress.
Canada has set a target to hit 40 to 45 per cent less emissions than it had in 2005, which is part of a longer term plan to reduce emissions to zero by 2050, as stated in the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act.
However, the CCI estimates that in 2024, carbon emissions were at 694.3 megatonnes, which is only 8.5 per cent down from 2005, way below the 2030 goal.
Ross Linden-Fraser, a lead researcher at the CCI’s 440 Megatonne project, told Now Toronto that at this rate it is unlikely that Canada will reach the 2030 goal, which will in turn make it even harder to reach other climate goals.
“We would need reductions of something like 40 megatons a year, every year, and that is way beyond what can be achieved with the policies we have today,” he said.
“Every target we miss makes it harder to hit the next target. So, missing the 2030 target would make it more challenging to reach future goals, but that’s all the more reason to do as much as we can now. The future targets aren’t shot, but governments should take this opportunity to course correct.”
As pointed out by Linden-Fraser and the report, Canada has gone through some rollbacks in terms of environment policies in 2025, partly due to the international economic uncertainty that has grown since the U.S. President Donald Trump took office and instated tariffs to several countries, including Canada. Some of these policy changes include the end of Canada’s controversial Carbon Tax and provincial and federal Electrical Vehicles subsidies.
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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CANADA?
Master in Environmental Studies Program Coordinator at York University Mark Winfield told Now Toronto that although Canada can’t be legally punished for failing to meet targets under the Paris Agreement, the country might be liable for failing to meet the Accountability Act.
“There may be the possibility of some sort of litigation if they fail to achieve the targets by 2030 under the Net Zero Accountability Act. But most enforcement mechanisms are basically reporting, and the same thing applies under the Paris Agreement. We have an obligation to report to the international community, and then there would, in theory, be a conversation about what happens internationally if this has ended in a failure,” he said.
But even though there might not be any legal consequences of not meeting these goals, the researcher warns that failure to meet targets indicates that Canada is not going in the right direction in the fight against climate change.
As cited by Winfield, this summer has been marked by intense wildfires, especially in the central part of the country. Toronto itself has seen multiple days of weather alerts linked to the wildfires in Northern Ontario that affected the air quality in the province.
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“Keep in mind what we’re seeing with the wildfires is just the beginning…We’ve managed to increase global temperatures by 1.5 degrees, which is what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change basically says is the threshold for dangerous climate change,” he said.
“If we’re not achieving emission reductions, the problems that we’re seeing in terms of wildfires and other things are simply going to get worse, both in Canada but also globally.”
Sustainable Energy Initiative Professor at York University Jose Etcheverry also warns that Canada’s shift from focusing on climate change might represent an issue for the environment.
The expert recalls that the 2030 targets’ possible failure comes after Canada previously failed to meet another target outlined in the Kyoto Protocol in 1998, which aimed to reduce emissions by six per cent in comparison to 1990.
“We have an ecological crisis that it’s threatening all life on Earth,” Etcheverry said. “The address we need to talk about is that there is only one planet that is habitable, and that’s called Earth. And there is nothing like planet Earth, nowhere close nearby. And what we need to do as Canadians is become leaders on protecting the planet.”
SCIENTISTS HOPE CANADA WILL TURN ATTENTION TO THE ENVIRONMENT
Despite a national shift towards focusing on the economy, the researchers are hoping that the new findings will be a wake up call for all levels of government to start investing more in environmental policies.
Linden-Fraser says that the CCI will be soon releasing a new study with recommendations on what federal and provincial governments can do to continue to see progress, including that the government should bring back the carbon tax and EV incentives.
“It’s rough to miss a target, but it’s still worth doing what we can. Every ton of emissions that we keep out of the atmosphere reduces the impacts of climate change every time, makes a difference,” he said.
“The federal government paused the national EV mandate. That policy has a really important role to play in setting expectations, so we think the government should keep it, and we think it’s really important to help Canadians use clean technology, get EVs or get heat pumps, and we support policies that get those technologies in people’s hands.”
Meanwhile, Etcheverry adds that the solution might involve adding a sustainable component to future or already existing projects in other areas of government.
The researcher suggests, for instance, that the government’s plan to build more affordable housing should also include that the houses need to be sustainable, including the addition of eco-friendly appliances, like solar panels and heat pumps.
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“[Will] we build a better Canadian economy? Yes, but only if we pay attention to the impact of our activities…And that’s what this report’s all about. It’s a clarion call saying that if we don’t get our act together, we’re going to be worse off,” he said.
Etcheverry also suggests that investing in sustainable practices could boost the country’s economy, citing that renewable energy sectors could help create more jobs.
“Let’s invest in eco-housing, eco-energy, eco-transportation. And not to sound like an eco freak…I want to point out that innovations that are to do with sustainability happen to be deployment creators of bigger importance than the technologies and sectors that are destroying the planet,” he said.
“[An American study] has proven empirically that conservation and renewable energy are labour intensive. In other words, they create more employment than nuclear power and fossil fuels.”