Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

National Bank Financial analyst Shane Nagle upgraded his recommendation for Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously after raising his target multiple for its shares to reflect recent cost control performance across its assets and “the growing value of Fourmile both improving the growth outlook for the Company and shifting more value into the Company’s U.S.-based portfolio, improving the overall geopolitical risk profile as the value of Mali essentially remains a free option as well.”

He made the change following a site visit last week to the Nevada Gold Mines (NGM), which is a joint venture between Barrick (61.5-per-cent ownership and operator) and Newmont Corp. (NGT-T, 38.5-per-cent ownership). The JV accounts for 31.5 per cent of his project net asset value for Barrick and 12.7 per cent for Newmont.

“NGM contains 3 Tier One gold deposits and, if operated as a single company, would have been the world’s 5th-largest gold producer in 2024,” said Mr. Nagle. “The tour was well attended by both sell-side and buy-side participants with a focus on highlighting operational improvements and long-term exploration upside of the complex. Overall, we came away more confident in the ability of NGM to deliver on operating guidance and future cost reductions following the current period of recapitalization. As it relates to Barrick, we were impressed by the potential size and quality of the Fourmile deposit (100-per-cent Barrick), shaping up to be one of the highest-quality gold deposits within the district.”

Mr. Nagle said the overview of Fourmile was a “highlight” of the visit, emphasizing his expectation that next year’s resource update is expected to deliver a doubling of the current resource.

“With 120,000 metres of annual drilling planned in the coming years, we anticipate significant growth of the high-grade (more than 14 grams per ton) resource shell,” he added.

Overall, the analyst said the tour “highlighted recent and ongoing processing improvements within the complex, which have led to more reliable online performance and expanded throughput levels since integration of the JV.”

“Fleet reinvestment will be substantially completed by 2026, while plant reinvestment is coming to an end for the roasters and the autoclaves,” he noted. “Continued mining expansion has the largest amount of remaining spend with critical projects related to OP waste dump expansions, deepening of the Leeville shaft, Gold Rush UG and Cortez Hills UG infrastructure for the next phase of mining, and the Turquoise Ridge paste plant.”

Mr. Nagle raised his target for Barrick shares to $51 from $36. The average target on the Street is $46.18, according to LSEG data.

“We are upgrading Barrick to Outperform (was Sector Perform) as recent operational performance has delivered stabilization in operating costs,“ he concluded. ”The discovery and future advancement of Fourmile both improves the medium-term growth outlook for the Company, and it presents a significant value driver given the high-grade nature of the deposit and proximity to existing infrastructure. Increased value in the Company’s Nevada JV provides an improved geopolitical risk profile and given the JV agreement with Newmont – presents a more economical opportunity for Newmont to acquire Barrick ahead of more significant advancement – albeit Government/regulatory approvals are likely to impede any planned combination.

“Shares have benefited from recent cost control measures throughout H1/25, with operating results tracking in line with Company guidance for the year. The recent rally in gold prices has supported a move to more discounted valuations (including ABX). A resolution in Mali would serve as a meaningful near-term catalyst to support a further re-rating as at current levels, we don’t believe the market is ascribing much in recoverable value from the country.”

He also increased his target for Newmont shares to $125 from $110. The average is $120

“We rate Newmont as Outperform as the Company has successfully delivered on planned cost control initiatives YTD and achieved improved operational consistency,” said Mr. Nagle. “With the ongoing capital return program, we expect to see further multiple expansion throughout H2/25.”

Other analysts making target adjustments for Barrick include:

* RBC’s Josh Wolfson to US$38 from US$34 with an “outperform” rating.

“Barrick outlined projected operating improvements and featured an in-depth review of its recent impressive Fourmile update. We have incorporated material Fourmile changes, resulting in a 8-per-cent NAV impact at spot. Although Fourmile is longer-dated (2029 first prod., 2034 steady-state), we expect its momentum and further potential growth could present a key source of implied upside for B shares to continue to close its valuation gap,” Mr. Wolfson said.

* CIBC’s Anita Soni to US$38 from US$30 with an “outperformer” rating.

* Jefferies’ Fahad Tariq to US$38 from US$36 with a “buy” rating.

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RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber predicts BlackBerry Ltd. (BB-N, BB-T) may report second-quarter 2026 financial results on Thursday that may “slightly” exceed expectations, pointing to a macro environment that has been “more stable than what was reflected in the company’s relatively conservative guidance.”

“The company typically provides conservative guidance, as actual revenue has exceeded consensus by 6 per cent and actual adj. EPS has beat consensus by $0.02 on average over the last 4 quarters,” he said. “Since the macro environment was likely more stable than guidance assumed, we believe Q2 revenue may slightly exceed RBC/consensus at $125-million/ $122-million. Excluding Cylance (divested), our revenue estimate implies 0-per-cent year-over-year growth. Q2 adj. EPS may also come in above RBC/consensus at $0.01.”

Mr. Treiber also thinks the Waterloo, Ont.-based company will reiterate its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, while potentially raising its adjusted EBITDA forecast “on continued cost restraint.”

“BlackBerry has averaged actual quarterly adj. EBITDA $12-million above consensus over the last 4 quarters,” he noted. “Due to likely higher revenue and continued cost discipline, we believe Q2 adj. EBITDA may slightly exceed RBC/consensus at $12-million and BlackBerry raise FY26 adj. EBITDA guidance from $72-87-million to $75-90-million (vs. consensus at $81-million).”

Maintaining his “sector perform” rating and US$4 target (versus the US$4.68 average) for its shares, Mr. Treiber said he expects BlackBerry’s valuation to “remain discounted pending improved visibility to sustained growth.”

“BlackBerry is trading at 4.5 times NTM EV/S [next 12-month enterprise value to sales], which is a 31-per-cent discount to auto tech peers,” he said. “We believe a sustained upwards rerating is dependent on: 1) strengthening IoT growth; and 2) realization of improved profitability.”

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The credit outlook remains “one of the greatest uncertainties” facing Canada’s Big 6 banks, according to National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine.

“Evolving trade negotiations in the U.S., a slow housing market and rising unemployment have dampened the economic outlook,” he said. “On the other hand, a new Canadian Government aiming to advance nation-building projects and reduce red tape impeding investment offers potential improvement in the future. The timing differences between the former items (current) and the latter situation (future) have amplified uncertainty, a word that has been used nearly 300 times on earnings calls so far in 2025. And that, ahem, uncertainty has been evident in the trend of banks adding to Performing Allowances (Performing ACL) for 13 consecutive quarters.”

In a client report released Monday titled The credit outlook: what if it gets … better?, Mr. Dechaine predicted banks will continue making “modest (i.e., low single-digit bps per quarter)” additions to their Performing ACLs moving forward, “barring any new and material shifts to the macroeconomic outlook.”

“What conditions would be necessary to shift this view and increase the possibility of Performing ACL releases? For one, we would need the elusive ‘shift in the macro outlook’, which would consist of an expectation of faster economic growth and rising employment, among other factors,” he said. “Additionally, we would need to see a shift in credit migration patterns. The COVID era experience shows that if GILs flatline or decline for two consecutive quarters, banks tend to release Performing ACLs. In the current context, we note that GILs have been rising for 12 consecutive quarters, though the pace of formations has moderated over the past two.”

From an investing perspective, he thinks bank stocks “still look pricey if Performing ACL releases boost growth.”

“A shift in the credit cycle could be a positive growth driver for bank stocks,” the analyst explained. “And such a boost is almost a necessity to justify an average forward sector P/E multiple of approximately 12.8 times, the highest level since 2007. But is that even enough? We estimate that if banks shift to releasing performing provisions, the sector EPS uplift would amount to 4 per cent, on average (BMO the highest at 7 per cent). Additionally, a common refrain we hear to justify sector valuations is that the market is ““looking ahead’ to 2027, timing that may coincide with an economic recovery and a positive shift in the credit cycle. Using this timeline, we generate a pro forma sector P/E multiple of 11.1x, which is still above the historical average (i.e., 1yr forward, to be clear). And although this report evaluates an upside scenario for the credit cycle, we are still concerned that the lagged impact of tariff uncertainty on business investment and rising unemployment trends will maintain upward pressure on bank provisions and downward pressure on volume growth.

“Our top pick in the space is BMO, which offers potentially greater growth potential due to its relatively higher exposure to U.S. commercial banking and Capital Markets. Moreover, according to our analysis, we believe it could offer greater potential EPS upside if a more positive credit cycle scenario materializes.”

Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) remains his lone stock with an “outperform” rating alongside a $173 target (unchanged). The average is $170.69.

His other ratings for the Big 6, excluding his own employer, are:

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $81 target. Average: $88.Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $110 target. Average: $110.87.Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $203 target. Average: $210.54.Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $100 target. Average: $104.07.

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Resuming coverage of Magna Mining Inc. (NICU-X) following the close of its $50-million private placement at $2.40 per share (21 million shares), Desjardins Securities analyst Bryce Adams thinks the full exercise of a $5-million overallotment and the pricing at 1 per cent above the 10-day volume-weighted average price “reflect positive investor support.”

He expects the proceeds to go primarily to the restart of past-producing Levack mine in 2026, which he now views as fully funded with a cash balance of $64-million at year-end 2025 and positive free cash flow projected by the third quarter of 2026.

“We are encouraged by initial drill results announced prior to the deal at the R2 target in the Levack No.3 footwall, including multiple mineralized intervals (veinlets of copper-rich chalcopyrite and bornite, and more than 1m massive chalcopyrite),” he said. “Located 600 metres northeast of the upper portion of the Morrison footwall and geologically similar, R2 could mirror the growth of Morrison (2 million tons at 7 per cent Cu), which was discovered by FNX in 2005 with comparable initial results. Step-out drilling is ongoing 50 metres from the last R2 intercept. With increased drill rigs and underground access, we expect Magna to aggressively advance R2, which boasts notable resource upside potential in our view.”

He added: “Greg Huffman, new SVP, Capital Markets aligned with shareholders. Mr Huffman was recently appointed and brings capital markets expertise and a longstanding knowledge of Magna since its IPO. We expect this appointment to enhance Magna’s financing execution and investor outreach. We also note strong shareholder alignment through the terms of his option package whereby 800,000 options vest once NICU trades above $5/sh for 20 consecutive days.”

Reaffirming his “buy” rating for the Sudbury, Ont.-based company’s shares on “continuing operation optimizations and significant resource upside potential,” Mr. Adams trimmed his target to $3.75 from $4 to reflect the share offering. The average is $3.63.

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In other analyst actions:

* CIBC World Markets’ Tal Woolley initiated coverage of Extendicare Inc. (EXE-T) with an “outperformer” rating and $18 target. The average target on the Street is $16.51.