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The Minnesota Lynx took a 1-0 lead in their semifinal matchup against the Phoenix Mercury after a Game 1 victory at home. The Lynx have the chance to take a commanding 2-0 advantage in this best-of-5 series in Minnesota on Tuesday night, with Game 2 tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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Today’s WNBA picks:Mercury +7.5 (-110, DraftKings): 1 unitDeWanna Bonner Over 4.5 rebounds (-138, FanDuel): 1 unitMercury +7.5
The Lynx beat the Mercury in three of four meetings during the regular season, but the Mercury were missing two of their three stars (Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally) in all four of those matchups. Game 1 was the first time that the Mercury were healthy against the Lynx, and Phoenix had a 7-point halftime lead and was tied at the end of the third quarter. The Lynx then outscored the Mercury 23-10 in the final 10 minutes to win 82-69.Â
I think these teams are a lot more even than this line suggests and I don’t expect the Mercury to shoot a ghastly 3-of-23 from 3-point land again like they did in Game 1. The fact Phoenix was able to hang around for most of the game despite shooting that poorly from outside is a positive sign for the rest of the series. The Mercury don’t want to fall behind 2-0 in this series, so I’m expecting a maximum effort in this one from a team loaded with talent.Â
DeWanna Bonner Over 4.5 rebounds
This Over is already at -160 at DraftKings, but I think there’s still some value with the -138 at FanDuel. Bonner recently set the WNBA record for most playoff rebounds in a career after pulling down the historic board in Game 3 against the New York Liberty. She’s been on a mission on the glass this postseason, grabbing 21 rebounds in three games against the Liberty and nine boards in Game 1 against the Lynx. Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts has been rolling with an 8-woman rotation for these playoffs, and Bonner has consistently been getting 20+ minutes.
The Lynx are at or near the top of the leaderboard in several WNBA statistical categories but one where they’re in the middle of the pack is rebounding. Minnesota ranks seventh in overall rebounding percentage (the Lynx get rebounds on 49.9% of missed shots), with the team sixth in offensive rebounding percentage and 10th in defensive rebounding percentage. I think Bonner can secure at least five boards for the fifth consecutive game this postseason. It could also be worth it to sprinkle a little on +480 to have 8+ rebounds, something Bonner has done in each of her past three playoff games.Â