Steve Adams
Good morning! Just over a week until the deadline, and probably days away from the trade market really breaking open. We’ll get going at 1pm CT, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time.
Greetings! Let’s get underway
Tigertown
Detroit starting Trey Melton on Wednesday to showcase him. Would Melton and Max Anderson or Jace Jung be enough for Suarez?
Steve Adams
I don’t really buy into the idea of a prospect call-up being a “showcase” in today’s game, where every team has countless hours of video on these guys and more data than we can process. I don’t think Melton carving through a weak Pirates lineup or being tagged for like four runs in four innings materially changes his perception throughout the league.As for the package, Melton as a centerpiece for Suarez seems feasible, sure. Jace Jung’s stock is down, but either or Jung/Anderson + Melton is a compelling offer.
Mike
If the cardinals sell, who is on the block besides Helsley? Given Fedde’s massive drop in value, is Helsley the only real trade asset?
Steve Adams
They’ll get something for Maton and for Matz as well (especially if they eat some of Matz’s salary). Not sure why JoJo Romero isn’t talked about as a viable trade option for them as well — only one additional year of control and third straight season of good numbers. He has a 0.40 ERA since late April.
And I do expect that they’ll still find a trade for Fedde
Soler
Do I have any value, or would halos have to eat some of contract?
Steve Adams
Angels would have to eat almost the entire contract
Jays in 43 parks
Keller & Bednar for Manoak & Macko & Loperfido … Who says no?
Steve Adams
Manoah is injured and barely has more club control than Bednar — plus less than Keller. Macko has an 8-something ERA in AAA coming off knee surgery. That doesn’t Keller alone, certainly not both him and Bednar.
Guest
Will the Guardians trade both Smith and Clase?
Steve Adams
I’d be shocked if they traded both, but I can see Clase moving. I’d put the probability under 50% though.
CUBBIES
We think Suarez is getting traded ? One year rental and going to have to give a lot
Steve Adams
Yeah I lean toward someone making a big enough offer that the D-backs do it, even if they’re not totally punting on the season. By mid-August, Jordan Lawlar can be taking those everyday ABs at third base.
Phillies fan
What would it hypothetically take for the Phillies to land Clase and Kwan.
Steve Adams
Both? Andrew Painter and then some.
Guest
Given the Rays are looking for catching, are the Cardinals a good trade fit for Taj Bradley? What would it take to get it done? With Bradley’s struggles and falling K%, would Pages be enough? Or would it take Crooks or Bernal?
Steve Adams
If the Rays wanted an all-glove, no-bat catcher they could get one more cheaply than giving up Taj Bradley. Crooks feels like a better starting point there, though he’s not having the best season in AAA. I still think you could put something together with those two at the forefront of though.
“Those two” being Cooks/Bradley
Crooks* grr
Damon
Do the cubs cut Turner after the deadline?
Steve Adams
Hard to imagine him hanging around that much longer. Tough year for a great player
John
Percent chance Sean Murphy or Michael Harris gets moved?
Steve Adams
Guest
Would KC consider trading Bubic and a prospect to Boston for Durand?
Steve Adams
I have to think, given how bad the Royals’ outfield has been, that something around 3+ years of Duran for 1+ years of Bubic would pique their interest, yes.
Phillie RX
As much as anything, the Phillies need outfield production. Might Dominguez be available with the emergence of Jones?
Steve Adams
No, I don’t see Dominguez being available even with Spencer Jones going nuts in AA/AAA
Eric
What does the return on a Mitch Keller trade look like, do they package someone like Bednar to get a bigger return?
Steve Adams
Keller is an above-average pitcher being paid less than we saw No. 3-4 guys like Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon get a few years back. They should be able to get something headlined by a 50-FV prospect for him — i.e. someone on or not far off the back half of most top 100 lists. And obviously you’re probably looking at 3 to 5 total pieces for him.
JP
The 3B trade market is pretty light on impact players. Is there anyone not named Suarez that could be pried loose?
Steve Adams
Ryan McMahon, Willi Castro, Yoan Moncada, Luis Urias … maybe Ramon Urias. The Pirates would giftwrap Ke’Bryan Hayes and send him to you for nothing, probably. Thairo Estrada has a little 3B experience (but probably not enough arm to drop him over there on the regular). Miguel Andujar, Gio Urshela
Hot take!
Seattle is top ten in offense this season. But they are middle of the pack in pitching, starting and relief. Should Seattle instead be in on the pitching market?
Steve Adams
It’s a reasonably top-heavy lineup with Cal Raleigh doing a disproportionate amount of the heavy lifting. But I do expect them to be in the bullpen market in addition to their search for offense
AJ Preller burner
I desperately need catching help, and maybe an outfielder. I want to run it back with Kyle Higashioka — could I pair that with another Texas bat (Adolis, perhaps) for some low-level pitching prospects?
Steve Adams
Probably, but I really don’t know that Padres ownership will green-light that level of spending. There’s a reason their late-offseason moves were an immensely backloaded deal for Pivetta and a bunch of $1-3MM fliers on Heyward, Maldonado, Elias Diaz and Connor Joe
Guest
Do you see the Braves doing anything other some minor moves?
Steve Adams
I wouldn’t really call trading Marcell Ozuna and Raisel Iglesisas “minor” moves, and I expect both to happen. Maybe Pierce Johnson and Rafael Montero, too.
T(win)s
Do the Twins move anybody besides the rental guys? I’d be very surprised if Jax, Duran, or Ryan are traded
Steve Adams
I’d be surprised, but they showed in 2021 (Jose Berrios) that if the bidding gets high enough they’ll bite the bullet.
Guest
Do you see the royals trading seth lugo? If so, what’s the return?
Steve Adams
I think they’ll eventually get there, and the return will be something fans consider lackluster because of the downside associated with Lugo’s player option. We almost never see opt-out/player option guys traded, so it’ll be an interesting litmus test.The only one who’s been moved recently was Scherzer, and he agreed in advance to exercise his player option. That got the Mets Luisangel Acuna, though they also had to pay down a huge portion of Scherzer’s contract.
Carrie Halas
Hear me out… phillies go after Eugenio Suarez. Bohm goes to 1b upon return, Harper to Of. Lineup fix accomplished, if just for the stretch drive.
Steve Adams
I’m fine with all of this, but I don’t run the Phillies and Dave Dombrowksi said within the past six weeks or so that he doesn’t want to move Bryce back to the outfield.
Zach
What would a hypothetical return for Bryan Reynolds look like?
Steve Adams
I don’t think Reynolds has positive trade value.
Trader Phil
If you’re the Dodgers, which move are you making: Duran/Ryan from Minnesota or Bednar/Keller from Pittsburgh?
Steve Adams
The asking price on the former would be overwhelmingly larger than the latter. I don’t think the Twins will move both Ryan and Duran (and find it pretty unlikely they ultimately move either, though if someone goes wild with a Duran offer, I would understand their temptation)
Luis Mey, Luis Mey not
What’s the most ideal offensive target for the Redlegs.
Steve Adams
Most ideal? Suarez probably, but that’s true for most clubs looking for offense. Geno is on another planet this year.
Framber Valdez
Am I an Astro next season?
Steve Adams
I’d be surprised. Owner Jim Crane has shown little to no willingness to push to the levels that’ll be necessary to re-sign Valdez, and the few (two) times he has, it’s been for hitters (Altuve, the failed Bregman offer)
Broken Bat
Would the Cubs offer Shaw 1-1 for Suarez?
Steve Adams
Still an A
Do the A’s get more in return for Jeffery Springs then what they gave up?
Steve Adams
Call for relief
Teams are saying they “will listen” to offers for not only some of the top closers in baseball, but closers with several years of team-friendly options. Do you believe any will actually be traded, and if so, do you believe trading top relievers with multi-year, team-friendly contracts is a fluke or is it a trend you expect to see in future years.
Steve Adams
I don’t know if David Bednar falls into this category since he only has one year of control remaining beyond 2025, but I’d be extremely surprised if he’s not moved.On Jhoan Duran, Emmanuel Clase, Felix Bautista, etc. — I don’t think any of them are individually “likely” to go, but there’s a real chance (25% or so?) that one of them goes, sure. Clase feels the likeliest to me, just given Cleveland’s payroll and the presence of Cade Smith
Ben Cherrington
Who is a bat that Toronto could send me for Mitch?
Steve Adams
Alan Roden and then some?
Bronxie the Turtle
Miguel Andujar or Gio Urshela would be good pickups for the Yankees. Maybe IKF too. An Andujar-Severino package?
Steve Adams
The Yankees acquiring Andujar and finally playing him at third base would amuse me, so I support this. I doubt they want any part of that Sevvy contract, though.
Matthew S
Is there any chance the Mariners are looking to add a bullpen arm or are they not going to likely make a move for any type of pitcher
Steve Adams
They are looking at bullpen arms, yes.
Natitude
Is it realistic to hope for a Top 100 prospect in return for any of the Nats players available at the trade deadline? Bell, Soroka, Lowe, Finnegan?
Steve Adams
No, I don’t think any of those guys have that type of value.
Phillies Phan
The Marsh/Rojas experiment is a mess. Why havent they brought up Crawford yet?
Steve Adams
Matt Gelb at The Athletic and Scott Lauber at the Philly Inquirer both had comments from Dombrowski on this last night — basically that they want Crawford to be up for good when he’s promoted, and they don’t want to call him up only to find a deal for an OF four days from now and push Crawford right back down to AAA
wkkortas
I keep reading speculation as to how Ke’Bryan Hayes’ trade market is “heating up”, but given the amount remaining on his deal vis-a-vis his offensive performance and his health concerns, how strong is the demand for his services?
Steve Adams
I’m sure the Pirates would love to move Hayes. “Heating up” seems like charitable framing from anyone who’s saying that. Cubs, Yankees, etc. surely have looked into it out of due diligence, but I’m sure most of those talks involve the Pirates eating a huge portion of the contract and little return heading their way.
Mullinorg!
If you’re Ross Atkins, are Nimmala and Yesavage in play as trade chips? Contending years don’t always come around, but on the other hand it’s not like this trade deadline has many “must have” players
Steve Adams
Yeah, everyone in the Jays’ system should be on the table right now.
Angels deadline
Halos need to be sellers, who makes final decision Arte or Perry? I hope they are smart and add to the young core they have.
Steve Adams
Arte makes the call, and Arte doesn’t like to sell.
M’s Fan
What would it take to get Dominguez and Soto from the Orioles? Mostly salary relief or a significant prospect?
Steve Adams
Neither is being paid so well that they’re salary dump candidates. Both should command a decent prospect or two individually. Getting both in the same trade probably requires a return of some note.
Josh bell
Am I getting traded to a contender
Steve Adams
He’s quietly been hitting pretty well since May. No one’s going to give up much for him, but yeah, there’s a good chance he moves.
Cassie comes to bat
No way the Cubs trade Cassie if they don’t plan on signing Tucker, correct???
Steve Adams
I can absolutely see them moving Caissie despite having no guarantees about re-signing Tucker.
Reds for the love of…
Is Robert Jr. an upgrade for the Reds OF right now, or do I need a hammer in the pen? Because I don’t think Geno is coming home.
Steve Adams
He’s hit well for 80-90 PAs and was beating up lefties even before that. If the White Sox are footing most of the bill, Robert to Cincy makes a lot of sense. They need help against LHP
Joe
What’s going on with Candelario? After the Yankees signed him to a minor league deal, I haven’t heard anything more about him.
Steve Adams
He’s hitting .175/.214/.225 in 42 Triple-A plate appearances with the Yankees. I don’t think they’re going to consider him anytime soon, haha.
Chris Getz
If I package Houser and Touchman, what kind of return would I receive? I’ll throw in a reliever too if I have one that you want. Thoughts?
Steve Adams
Tauchman and Houser will both be traded, but even if it’s in the same package, I wouldn’t expect a super impactful return.
Mr KLC
Would Cronenworth be a good pickup as a lefty bat 2nd baseman for the Astros? What kind of prospect capital would it take?
Steve Adams
It would take them just bailing the Padres out on that contract, but he’d put Houston over the luxury tax so I doubt ownership would approve it.
Not JJ Piccollo
What kind of return can KC net for Carlos Estevez? Odds he moves and teams that would be interested in him?
Steve Adams
Most contenders would be interested to an extent, though the contract/salary would limit interest a bit (especially for teams with luxury concerns like the Astros, Rangers if they buy).There’s not a ton of surplus value given the $11MM AAV, but a couple 40 to 45 prospects (generally in the 10 to 20 range of given system) or maybe a young big leaguer who just hasn’t had a great path to playing time (like the Blue Jays got when they picked up Jonatan Clase in last year’s Yimi Garcia deal)
Arizona tea
Chances Suarez doesn’t get moved? Seems Arizona is in the thick of the wc hunt
Steve Adams
I lean toward him moving, but it’s not a lock. There’s a real chance they just hold onto him and make the QO, especially if they string together a few more wins here.
So your telling me theres a chance?
What would it take for the reds to get Duran? What do you think about swapping Steer + ?
Steve Adams
At this point you’ve got to specify Jarren or Jhoan!But I don’t think Steer is a great starting point for either. He’s “only” controlled three more years at this point, which is the same as Jarren and one more than Jhoan, both of whom are better/more valuable in trade talks.
Jose cruz
Is it possible or are there rules against it about trading players who are just drafted last week? Could Huston make a trade and include their first round pick from this year as the prospect?
Steve Adams
Can’t trade anyone who was drafted until the offseason, and you can’t use a player to be named later as a loophole.
Bendix
Over under Marlins players being moved 3.5
Steve Adams
I was all ready to say “over,” but I think it’s probably less than that. Sandy, Cabrera, Bender, Sanchez, Quantrill, Fortes could all go, but it’s hard to see them getting fair value for Alcantara, and I don’t think Quantrill really has a lot of value.I think Sanchez will go. Bender and Cabrera have a chance but aren’t locks.
Croney bashing
What don’t you like about Cronenworth’s $12M AAV that you’d suggest the Padres would want to “bail”? He’s a 2.5-WAR player having yet another good season.
Steve Adams