With the series tied 1-1, the Phoenix Mercury will host the Minnesota Lynx in Game 3 at 9:30 p.m. ET on Friday at the PHX Arena on ESPN2.

The Mercury enter this pivotal matchup of a five-game series with plenty of momentum, having completed a 20-point comeback (tied for the third-largest in WNBA history) to win Tuesday’s Game 2. They are 4.5-point underdogs with the series now at their place.

Minnesota remains the betting favorite to win the WNBA championship, but a loss on Friday could shake things up in a big way.

Here’s a look at the latest WNBA odds and my favorite Lynx vs. Mercury prediction for Game 3:

Lynx vs. Mercury Odds for Game 3: Spread, Total, Moneyline

Lynx spread: -4.5
Mercury spread: +4.5
Total: 158.5

Spread

Total

Money

Minnesota Lynx

Phoenix Mercury

Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction: Game 3 on Sept. 26

Based on the initial WNBA betting lines, I’m choosing to lay the points with Minnesota for my Lynx vs. Mercury prediction ahead of Friday’s Game 3.

This is a difficult one to trust after losing the same wager in Game 2, but that was an epic collapse by the Lynx. They led by as many as 20 at the 5:45 mark in the third quarter, with ESPN Analytics giving them a 98.9% win probability at that time.

Minnesota scored 24 points the rest of the way in an 89-83 loss, which included four points in overtime.

The Lynx haven’t been as dominant through two games of this semifinal matchup, but I think that’s more their doing than anything else. Minnesota wasn’t sharp in the first half of Game 1 before flipping a switch after the break in its 82-69 victory.

If the Lynx look like the regular-season version of themselves for four quarters, I expect them to cover this spread.

During the regular season, Minnesota finished four games better than any other team in the league. The Lynx posted a +12.1 net rating, which was nine points higher than the Mercury’s regular-season mark of +3.2.

From a betting perspective, the market couldn’t quite catch up to Minnesota’s dominance. The Lynx went 26-19-1 against the spread, marking the second-best ATS record in the league behind the Atlanta Dream.

The basketball world is due for a dominant showing from the championship favorites at some point. I believe that happens on Friday.

Prediction: Lynx -4.5

Visit the online sportsbook for WNBA betting opportunities throughout the year. With prop bets, parlays, futures, and more, there’s something for every basketball fan.

If you don’t have a BetMGM account, check your eligibility for a sportsbook welcome offer, one of many sportsbook promos for new and existing customers.