The Blue Jays took over first place in the American League East on July 3. They have now lost five of their past six games after their loss Wednesday night to the Boston Red Sox. Coupled with the New York Yankees’ win over the Chicago White Sox, the Yankees have pulled into a tie atop the division.

The Jays do have the tiebreaker advantage over the Yankees by virtue of their winning eight of 13 games against the Bronx Bombers this season, but the Jays have no margin for error remaining.

The Yankees have won nine of their past 12 games and are playing excellent baseball. Their starting pitching is healthy and getting settled in, as is their bullpen, which had been a black hole for a couple of months. Their offence is rolling, with superstar Aaron Judge on the way to a batting title. He also hit his 50th and 51st homers on Wednesday.

The Jays and Yankees are two teams moving in different directions. It appears as though the Jays will relinquish their stranglehold over the division lead as well as the best record in the American League. What seemed to be an ideal position for the Jays to have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, set up their pitching the way they wanted, and give injured shortstop Bo Bichette’s injured knee as much time as possible to heal, is now flittering away.

This would change the entire postseason dynamic. Instead of having a bye to the AL Division Series with home-field advantage, the Jays would likely become the top wild-card team. They would host the wild-card series (unless they slip to the second or third wild-card positions), but on their way there they will have to play every game until Sunday in desperate fashion.

That could mean that Kevin Gausman might pitch on Sunday, which would make him unavailable for not only Game 1, but potentially all of the Wild-Card Series. This late-season slide is not setting the Jays up for success by any means.

Decisions, decisions

The good news is the Jays will be participating in the end-of-season tournament no matter what. One of the big questions they will have to answer is who will be in the starting rotation.

It seemed the Jays had decided it would be Gausman, Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer and Trey Yesavage, as they had demoted Jose Berrios and Eric Lauer to the bullpen. It’s unclear whether Chris Bassitt will be back from the injured list in time to pitch in the postseason. He could be eligible to pitch in the Division Series, if the Jays get there.

Scherzer has given up a combined 10 runs in the first inning over his past two starts. His pitches look flat and hittable. Yesavage has been pretty good for a young guy with a few major-league starts but wasn’t nearly as dominant in his second outing as he was in his debut. I don’t think they can let Scherzer start a playoff game or even be on the postseason roster.

I would have Gausman, Bieber, Yesavage and Berrios as the starters at this point, which is not ideal. Lauer would be my long reliever – a lefty who could force an opposing manager to have to flip his lineup when he replaces any one of the right-handed starters.

Santander returns

The Blue Jays activated switch-hitting slugger Anthony Santander on Tuesday. He hadn’t played in a major-league game since May 29 when he injured his left shoulder. The recovery from the subluxation has been anything but linear. He has dealt with lots of peaks and valleys, specifically ongoing inflammation in the shoulder.

The Jays are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle by activating him in the final week. Santander’s rehab assignment was better than his performance before he was injured, but that isn’t saying much. In 50 big-league games this season before going on the IL, he hit .179/.273/.304 with only six home runs and 18 RBI. At Triple-A Buffalo, he hit .219/.342/.469 with two homers and two doubles in 32 at-bats.

Jays’ general manager Ross Atkins said the scouting reports indicated that he was healthy and looking like himself again; like he did in 2024 when he hit 44 homers for the Baltimore Orioles.

Santander was signed as a major off-season piece with big expectations. He is still that same player, but the big question is his readiness to be activated.

On Wednesday, Jays’ manager John Schneider slotted him into the fifth spot in the lineup. He was just behind Alejandro Kirk and in front of Davis Schneider. Santander went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts in his return.

The Jays are hoping to get some quality at-bats from Santander over the remaining four regular-season games so they can keep him on the roster and in the lineup in the playoffs. Plus, he would instantly add impact, depth and balance to an already productive lineup. The Jays strikeout the least of any major-league team. They can afford some swing-and-miss if it comes with big-time slugging as well.

If Santander looks like the same guy he was for the first 50 games of this season, I don’t see him being on the playoff roster.

Moving on from Manoah

In order to make room on the 40-man roster for Santander, the Blue Jays made a somewhat surprising decision to designate starting pitcher Alek Manoah.

Yes, that Alek Manoah. He was 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA in 2022 with 25 quality starts among his 31 total games started. He was third in the Cy Young voting that season.

But he has had a number of injuries since then, including Tommy John surgery. He had not pitched well prior to his injuries and had been demoted to the minors. He returned to the mound in the minor leagues this summer, but the Jays decided he wouldn’t be a factor on their staff next season based upon what they saw. Manoah would have been arbitration eligible and would likely earn close to $3 million next season.

It is a disappointing end to Manoah’s tenure, which had some very exciting moments. He pitched extremely well in 2022 and became a fan favourite. He was an all-star that season, showcasing his personality during the All-Star Game by engaging the broadcast booth while pitching. But he was never consistent again after that 2022 season.

He will likely be released and become a free agent. He could re-sign with the Jays on a minor-league contract, but I suspect that won’t happen. He will want to move on.

He had some hurt feelings at times over how he was handled and ultimately demoted to the minors. I suspect he will find his way back to the big leagues down the road, but it is probably in his and the Jays best interest to part ways.