“Available listings, the strength of local economies, and affordability calculations also play a significant role.”
He noted that stock is still “above average”, despite some steep drops in areas such as Southland and Gisborne. These will be the areas to keep an eye on for the first signs of growth.
“With winter behind us, the seasonal dip in listings looks to have ended,” he said. “While total stock is still below this time last year, it’s above the recent average. The spring selling season, typically peaking in November, will be key – especially in regions with higher choice.
“If demand picks up, and especially if it outweighs new listings coming to the market, this could lead to upward pressure on prices, shifting buying power towards sellers. However, the weak economy and labour market may limit how strong the next growth cycle becomes.”
Future growth paints a murky picture
Most of the figures coming out this month only confirm the sluggishness that has persisted throughout most of the year. A substantial bounce-back is hard to predict in the near-term, though chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said there are some signs of things starting to turn.