Sticker shock is not going away in Hawaii. Hotel rates, rental cars, and restaurant tabs are set to stay sky-high into 2026, even as fewer visitors arrive. UHERO, the State of Hawaii’s research arm, projects arrivals will drop about 5% by mid-2026, with costs for both travelers and residents still climbing.
For visitors, that means the price of a Hawaii vacation is not about to ease. Later in this article we will share strategies we use ourselves to beat Hawaii sticker shock.
A tourism slowdown does not mean lower prices.
Visitor counts from Canada remain low, while those from Japan show no signs of recovery. Even U.S. travelers are showing signs of pulling back. The State expects that trend to continue into 2026.
Yet none of that translates into travel bargains. Hotels do not slash rates when demand dips. They close floors and facilities and cut services instead. Airlines reduce flights, not airfares. Restaurants will trim staffing but still raise menu prices. This is what the industry has learned works. That is why visitors will continue to pay $400+ a night for a room and $100 a day for a car, even when the islands report fewer arrivals.
Why sticker shock sticks.
Inflation in Hawaii remains stuck and is primarily driven by housing, food, and energy costs. Those flow straight into hotel bills, airline tickets, and restaurant menus.
For visitors, the result is familiar: a buffet breakfast that easily exceeds $50, a family trip that costs thousands more than expected, and the nagging question of whether Hawaii is still worth it. For residents, the same forces hit every grocery store visit and electric bill.
The household squeeze is real.
Jobs in tourism are reportedly slowing. Part-time positions with reduced benefits are growing at a faster rate than full-time ones. Wages may tick up, but they do not keep pace with the price of rent or milk. UHERO points to flat real income. That is just another way of saying residents are not getting ahead. And that is an understatement.
Why Hawaii visitors will not find relief.
Elsewhere, a slowdown often means discounts. But not in Hawaii. The cost base is simply too high. Airlines will keep schedules tighter than ever, hotels will manage inventory as they’ve learned to do brilliantly, and restaurants will adjust hours and capacity. None of that is set to lower prices for visitors.
UHERO warns that waiting for Hawaii to get cheaper is simply a mistake. The islands rarely roll back costs once they ratchet up. And that is set to be the case again in 2026.
Tourism downturn masked.
Billions of dollars in public and military projects continue to pour into Hawaii. An $8 billion Navy contract at Pearl Harbor and other federal work are keeping paychecks flowing and cranes in the air, which makes the economy look better from a distance than the tourism numbers suggest.
What 2026 will look like for Hawaii visitors.
Visitors should not expect to pay less for an island vacation next year. Hotels will protect high rates. Airlines will manage capacity. And restaurants will continue to raise prices as their own costs continue to climb. Residents will face more of the same: fewer tips, fewer hours, fewer full-time jobs, and higher bills.
Hawaii remains a dream trip, but the sticker shock is not going away. The state says Hawaii is headed into a mild recession. To anyone paying the bills, both residents and visitors, it feels like another year of paying more for the same Hawaii.
Beating Hawaii sticker shock starts before you book.
The smartest way to save on a Hawaii trip is to plan ahead, using tools like Google Flights and Google Hotels to spot the best prices before you even pack your bags. Editor Jeff found a half price deal on a five-star beachfront property we’re about to tell you about, just that way. You can set price alerts for Google Flights too, another of our strategies.
We also find that traveling mid-week rather than on busy weekends often saves hundreds, and shoulder seasons, such as May or September, usually deliver the lowest fares.
For rental cars, we primarily turn to Costco Travel and Priceline, and we continually monitor prices up to the day of departure to make sure we have the best deal. It’s worth checking Autoslash and Discount Hawaii Car Rentals for their Hawaii rentals too.
When it comes to hotels, it pays to compare OTA’s with direct booking, as properties sometimes offer unadvertised discounts or extras, such as parking or resort credits. Honestly, sometimes there appears to be no logical explanation for where you’ll find the best hotel deal. For those using points or companion certificates, pairing them with careful flight timing can further reduce costs.
What about you? Have higher costs changed your plans for 2026
UHEROForecastForTheStateOfHawaii25Q3
Get Breaking Hawaii Travel News