The New York Mets picked Sean Manaea to start the regular-season finale Sunday against the Miami Marlins in a must-win game with the final playoff spot on the line.
Their only path to the postseason is a win over the Marlins, combined with a Cincinnati Reds loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.
On the surface, such a scenario may not seem like an ideal situation for Manaea, who carries a 5.80 ERA. But the Mets are dealing with less-than-ideal circumstances.
The choice for Sunday’s starter essentially came down to Manaea, David Peterson (both lefties) or an opener. In rolling with Manaea, the Mets made a relatively conservative selection, though they’ll be prepared to act aggressively with changes if necessary.
The Mets prefer Manaea’s swing-and-miss stuff over Peterson against Miami’s contact-oriented lineup, people familiar with the club’s thinking said. Manaea’s strikeout rate (28.1 percent) and whiff rate (26.4 percent) are better than Peterson’s (20.7 percent and 24 percent). Neither pitcher boasts even decent overall numbers since the second half, though.
Despite an 8.42 ERA over his past nine starts, Peterson presented the most conventional route because he’d be working on four days’ rest and hasn’t come out of the bullpen this season like Manaea. But with Peterson, the ball is in play too much. The Mets’ defense is not good. The Marlins’ lineup doesn’t contain high-profile sluggers, but their 79.2 percent contact rate in the second half is the fourth highest in MLB.
With the state of their staff, Clay Holmes provided Mets exactly what they needed and then some with a quality start. Despite appearing in Wednesday’s game, he threw six scoreless innings today. After spending the previous six seasons as a RP, he made 31 starts, had a 3.53 ERA.
— Will Sammon (@WillSammon) September 27, 2025
Though he is not starting, Peterson figures to play a role somehow Sunday. The Mets have a few different plans throughout the game, and plenty depends on the Marlins’ lineup. To its credit, Miami has treated these final games seriously despite getting eliminated before the series. They’ve used multiple pinch-hitters; they can platoon at a couple of positions, creating different possible batting orders.
The Mets are not using an opener like Huascar Brazoban (a right-hander) because the Marlins could’ve stacked left-handed batters. Brazoban doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs. Left-handed batters own a .883 OPS against him. This is where Reed Garrett’s injury hurts the Mets; the right-handed reliever is more platoon-neutral.
Right-handed starter Jonah Tong is also available — along with the rest of the Mets’ bullpen. Clay Holmes’ length Saturday (six shutout innings) limited the Mets’ bullpen usage to single innings from Brooks Raley, Tyler Rogers and Edwin DÃaz. Plus, DÃaz told The Athletic’s Tim Britton that he’d be ready to go for six outs if needed.
But it all starts with Manaea.
Manaea’s struggles tell the story of the Mets’ season. He had a career-best season last year. He ended up re-signing with New York. He entered 2025 as the club’s most dependable starter. Much like the difference between the 2024 Mets and the 2025 Mets, however, this year hasn’t been as magical for Manaea. Injuries sidelined him until before the All-Star break. Since August, Manaea has a 7.34 ERA.
Manaea last pitched Wednesday when he allowed two runs in one inning out of the bullpen. In the prior couple of turns through the rotation, he was used in tandem with Holmes. Leading up to the final week, Manaea said he has felt better about his stuff.
(Top photo of Sean Manaea: Heather Khalifa / Getty Images)