The Florida Panthers are in trouble, and opportunity is knocking for the rest of the National Hockey League.

We knew this summer that superstar winger Matthew Tkachuk would miss significant time to start the season as he recovers from a torn adductor muscle and sports hernia he sustained during the 4 Nations Face-Off in February. While losing a player of Tkachuk’s calibre would have a significant impact on most teams, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions are one of the very few clubs with a lineup deep enough to remain afloat his absence.

But as it turns out, Tkachuk won’t be the only big name missing from the Panthers lineup for a chunk of this season.

Last week, three-time Selke Trophy winner Aleksander Barkov suffered a significant knee injury during training camp and immediately underwent surgical repair. It’s likely Barkov will miss the entire regular season, though recovery timelines for major injuries like this can be fluid.

Can Florida overcome two consequential injuries like this? That, in my opinion, is a much more nuanced discussion. Cluster injuries at the same position can have a dramatically negative impact, even to elite teams, and the reality is replacing players like Tkachuk and Barkov internally while maintaining the same baseline of play is a tall order.

One of the ways you can tease this out is by looking at how the Panthers performed in those thousands of minutes when Barkov and Tkachuk were either unavailable (owing to injuries) or on the bench. Over the past three seasons, Florida’s played nearly 7,000 minutes with Barkov and Tkachuk away from the ice. The results speak for themselves:

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It’s remarkable the Panthers played to a near break-even goal differential in those minutes. Some of this is pure bottom-six minutes, some of this is what life has looked like when one or both of Tkachuk or Barkov missed time due to injury – last year alone, the duo missed a combined 45 games. And still Florida was quite competitive.

But the 2025-26 season will look a lot different. With two players sidelined indefinitely, there will be a persistent drawing of bottom-nine forwards into Florida’s top six, no longer insulated by two of the most dynamic forwards in the league. But the Panthers have illustrated time and again their depth pieces can win their minutes; it’s the proximate reason Florida is on the precipice of a three-peat.

In Tkachuk’s absence on the wing, anticipate Carter Verhaeghe, Eetu Luostarinen, and Jesper Boqvist shouldering more of the load. Down the middle of the lineup, it’ll be Sam Bennett, Anton Lundell, and Evan Rodrigues soaking up much of those lost Barkov minutes.

It’s broadly the same group of forwards who have delivered back-to-back titles to Sunrise, but they’ll now have to thrive without any insulation at the top of the lineup. And to that end, betting markets have started taking notice – after Barkov’s knee surgery, Florida slipped from the odds-on favourite to win the Stanley Cup to sixth, trailing the Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars, Carolina Hurricanes, Vegas Golden Knights, and Colorado Avalanche.

No one will be counting this Panthers team out from the playoff picture, but it will be fascinating to see if Florida can still ice a Stanley Cup-calibre contender down two critical pieces at the top of the lineup.

Their first test comes opening night, playing host to the Chicago Blackhawks in the league opener.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference

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