CFL Fantasy Start vs. Sit: 3 must-starts and who to avoid in Week 18

With just three games in Week 18, CFL Fantasy Presented by ToonieBet means finding who to start and who to sit becomes more daunting than usual.

No worries, that’s why we’re here. This week we love Calgary’s run game, but we’re not fans of the Stampeders’ passing attack for fantasy purposes. Let’s dig in.

SASKATCHEWAN AT OTTAWA

Friday, October 3
7:30 p.m. ET
TSN/RDS/CFL+
Line: Saskatchewan (-3.5)
O/U: 53.5

Start: KeeSean Johnson, WR, Saskatchewan, $13,500 Salary

Samuel Emilus is back, but it’s KeeSean Johnson who’s on course for All-CFL consideration. Johnson crossed the 1,000-yard barrier in the Week 17 loss to the Elks and comes into Week 18 third only to BC’s Keon Hatcher Sr. and Hamilton’s Kenny Lawler in receiving yardage. He’s also been a fantasy mainstay this season, with last week’s 19.9 fantasy points his third straight game with at least 12.8 FP and fourth double-digit outing in his previous five.

Johnson, third in the CFL with 109 targets, will continue to be a favourite of pivot Trevor Harris and faces a REDBLACKS defence he tallied 11.4 FP against in Week 1. That was before he emerged as an elite pass-catcher, so feel comfortable in adding Johnson to your lineup despite Ottawa’s second-best pass defence.

Sit: Daniel Adeboboye, RB, Ottawa, $6,300 Salary

William Stanback was a full participant in practice on Tuesday and could return to action after missing the Week 16 loss to Winnipeg. That means the REDBLACKS would continue their backfield timeshare with Stanback, who had games of 12.5 fantasy points in Week 12 and 14.8 FP in Week 14. If Stanback gets the bulk of the carries, that leaves Daniel Adeboboye, who scored seven fantasy points in the loss to the Blue Bombers, playing the role of change-of-pace guy.

Adeboboye has not provided double-digit fantasy numbers since scoring 10.4 FP in Week 7, but considering it is the Roughriders, neither he nor Stanback makes for a good fantasy option. Saskatchewan leads the league with just 81.7 rushing yards allowed per game and is third with just 4.8 yards allowed per carry. Fantasy users would be wise to avoid Ottawa’s run game this week.

HAMILTON AT TORONTO

Saturday, October 4
3:00 p.m. ET
TSN/CTV/CFL+
Line: Hamilton (-1.5)
O/U: 57.5

Start: Nick Arbuckle, QB, Toronto, $15,000 Salary

Naturally, Nick Arbuckle needed to shake off the rust after missing Week 16 with an injury, so it shouldn’t have been too surprising he managed just 13.1 fantasy points in last week’s loss at BC. He managed “only” 281 yards, which, combined with his 261 yards in Week 15, marked only the second time this season Arbuckle had consecutive games under 300 yards. With the Argos not being able to afford another loss, fantasy users should feel comfortable knowing Arbuckle, second in the league with 4,370 yards, will be crucial down the stretch.

Arbuckle has carried fantasy teams in his two previous meetings against the Tiger-Cats, scoring 20 fantasy points in Week 5 and 26.7 FP in the Week 13 rematch. He has accounted for five majors against Hamilton and should be strongly considered as a fantasy anchor. Yes, he has thrown five interceptions in his last two starts, but a healthy Arbuckle should be able to record a seventh game of at least 20 FP in a must-win situation.

Sit: Makai Polk, WR, Toronto, $8,000 Salary

Upon returning from down South, Makai Polk looked like he would easily resume the calibre of production that made him an East Division All-CFL receiver, scoring a combined 33.9 fantasy points in his first two games back. However, his production has waned in the past two games, as Polk has scored a total of 14.7 FP, catching just four of his 13 targets for 47 yards, although his lone target in Week 17 resulted in his second major of the season.

Jake Herslow has become the WR1 in Toronto, while Kevin Mital’s versatility assures the Argos will be creative in keeping him involved in the offence. When you consider how running back Spencer Brown has developed into another piece in the passing game, Polk and Dejon Brissett have seen their roles negatively impacted. The potential of a high-scoring affair looms but make sure your fantasy lineup has the Argos players who will see a heavy workload, which counts Polk out.

CALGARY AT BC

Saturday, October 4
7:00 p.m. ET
TSN/CFL+
Line: BC (-3.5)
O/U: 55.5

Start: Dedrick Mills, RB, Calgary, $13,400 Salary

There have been many reasons to point to when it comes to the Stamps’ current three-game losing streak. Dedrick Mills is not one of them, as he remains the fulcrum behind a Calgary running attack ranked second in the league with 120.7 yards per game. He crossed 1,000 yards for the first time in his career during last week’s loss to Montreal and comes into the weekend with a league-best 30 runs of at least 10 yards.

Mills came seven yards short of topping at least 100 yards from scrimmage in Week 17, which would have been the fourth time in five games he would have cracked the century mark. One of those came at the expense of the Lions, who yielded 123 yards to Mills in a Week 16 loss that saw him finish with 20.3 FP. About the only blemish in Mills’ recent play has been a lack of majors. He has not seen the end zone since Week 12 and has just one touchdown since Week 9. Despite that, he continues to be a solid fantasy option. Imagine what he’ll do for your lineup when he does start scoring again.

Sit: Vernon Adams Jr., QB, Calgary, $15,000 Salary

Whereas Mills’ production has continued during Calgary’s recent doldrums, the same cannot be said of the Stampeders’ field general, who has gone five straight games without throwing for more than 250 passing yards. Vernon Adams Jr.’s 20.3 fantasy points in Week 17 snapped a three-game stretch that saw him score a combined 25.3 FP that included just one touchdown.

He will have plenty of motivation to erase the previous meeting against the Lions when he scored just 3.3 FP before leaving the Week 16 loss with an injury. Adams Jr. is too good to be down for long, so perhaps the pivot who recorded three games of 20+ FP in a four-game stretch this summer will make a triumphant return. Right now, it’s too risky to make that bet on him, so look for another option to lead your fantasy team this week.

CFL Fantasy Start vs. Sit: 3 must-starts and who to avoid in Week 18

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