After splitting the first two games of their Wild Card series, the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres meet for a decisive Game 3 at Wrigley Field, with the winner advancing to face the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET, and the game will be shown nationally on ESPN. 

If you’re looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Cubs vs. Padres odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

Jameson Taillon (11-7, 3.68 ERA) starts for Chicago. The veteran right-hander was excellent down the stretch, pitching to a 1.54 ERA in September. He’ll be opposed by former Cub Yu Darvish (5-5, 5.38). The Japanese righty was limited to just 72 innings of work this season. Both starters will likely have very short leashes given that this is an elimination game. 

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Taillon is set at over/under 2.5 strikeouts (Over -118, Under -112), and Darvish is set at 3.5 strikeouts (Over -128, Under -104). Again, these totals are as low as they are thanks to how eager both managers will be to turn the ball over to their bullpens. Barring Taillon or Darvish pitching with total dominance, there will be plenty of relievers on the mound.

Padres third baseman Manny Machado is the +350 favorite to hit a home run in this contest at FanDuel. He’s followed by Fernando Tatis Jr. (+400), Michael Busch (+400), Kyle Tucker (+450), Seiya Suzuki (+470), Ian Happ (+560), Jackson Merrill (+560) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (+600). 

Check out the model’s best bets for Padres vs. Cubs Game 3 on Thursday. 

SAN DIEGO PADRES at CHICAGO CUBS | 10/2 | 5:08 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Cubs -117
Chicago wins in 59% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Cubs +1.5 (-198)
Chicago covers in 73% of simulations

Over/Under
Pick: Over 7.5 (-106)
The Over hits in 57.5% of simulations

Projected score: Cubs 4.5, Padres 4.1