Kenyan workers prepare clothes for export at a factory operating under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act in Kitengela, Kenya, on Sept. 19, 2025.Monicah Mwangi/Reuters
The United States has dealt a heavy blow to African manufacturers, allowing a crucial trade agreement to lapse without renewal in a move that is expected to cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which had eliminated duties on thousands of African products over the past 25 years, expired on Tuesday night at midnight in Washington after the U.S. Congress and the Donald Trump administration failed to take action to save it.
African leaders and U.S. business groups had been intensely lobbying for an extension of the free-trade deal, but their pleas were ignored. While the White House and many U.S. lawmakers said they would like AGOA to be extended for at least a year, they were preoccupied this week with the U.S. government shutdown.
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In total, AGOA supports trade of about US$10-billion annually, sustaining hundreds of thousands of jobs in 32 countries across Africa, from the garment factories of Kenya and Lesotho to the auto assembly plants of South Africa.
But the predicted job losses could hit the United States as well as Africa. Democratic members of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee said the lapsing of the trade deal will jeopardize up to 300,000 U.S. jobs, while also disrupting supply chains, causing price increases, and ceding economic influence to China.
Some members of Congress have told African leaders they will try to extend the trade deal later this year, and then have it applied retroactively. But the uncertainty – combined with earlier hikes in U.S. tariffs on many countries – will be too much for many businesses to accept. Layoffs are widely expected, and some have already begun.
“Access to key markets is becoming more difficult, and African countries – especially the least developed – are feeling the strain,” said Pamela Coke-Hamilton, executive director of the International Trade Centre, an agency of the United Nations and the World Trade Organization.
In a statement on Wednesday, she warned that the African countries in the AGOA agreement could suffer a 21-per-cent drop in their exports to the United States over the next four years as a result of the expiry of AGOA and other tariff measures. South Africa, the most industrialized country in the continent, would see a 17-per-cent decline in its exports to the U.S. market.
Among the worst-hit sectors would be apparel, textiles, leather, footwear, processed foods and beverages, Ms. Coke-Hamilton said.
AGOA supports trade of about US$10-billion annually, sustaining hundreds of thousands of jobs in 32 countries across Africa, including garment factories in Kenya.Monicah Mwangi/Reuters
The UN Trade and Development agency, UNCTAD, said the expiry of the trade agreement will disproportionately hurt Africa’s light manufacturing exports, which in turn would damage African efforts to diversify and industrialize their economies. Tariffs on African manufactured goods would be two or three times higher than the tariffs on traditional raw material exports such as minerals and fuel, it said.
In Ghana, the expiry of AGOA is a “real, present risk” to the livelihoods of many businesses, according to the country’s Importers and Exporters Association.
“The uncertainty threatens to undermine investment planning, as both investors and manufacturers are likely to delay or scale back commitments in the absence of a predictable trade policy,” said Samson Asaki Awingobit, executive secretary of the association, in a statement on Wednesday.
In a speech to U.S. investors last week, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa appealed for their support in lobbying for a renewal of AGOA. “Predictable, preferential access to the U.S. market is vital not only to South Africa but to American companies who depend on reliable imports,” he said.
Kaamil Alli, a spokesperson for South African Trade Minister Parks Tau, said the minister has found “broad support” in the U.S. Congress for an extension of the trade deal, but there are still questions about the timing.
Apparel, textiles, leather, footwear, processed foods and beverages will be hit hardest by the expiry of AGOA, said the head of the International Trade Centre.SIMON MAINA/AFP/Getty Images
“The consensus suggests AGOA may be renewed for a short period of between one to three years to allow Congress to introduce changes and improvements to the program,” he told state broadcaster SABC on Wednesday.
U.S. lobby groups have joined the campaign to save the trade deal. “Thousands of American companies across the country benefit from their commercial partnerships under the program,” U.S. Chamber of Commerce vice-president John Murphy said in a letter to Congress last month.
“The threat of AGOA’s imminent expiry creates uncertainty for U.S. companies and raises questions across Africa about the reliability of American businesses as partners,” he said.
The American Apparel & Footwear Association said on Wednesday that it was deeply disappointed and frustrated by the expiry of the trade agreement. Its vice-president of trade and customs, Beth Hughes, said the expiry is “surrendering further strength to China’s manufacturing influence by placing unnecessary obstacles in the way of viable sourcing alternatives.”