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The New York Jets (0-4) host the Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1) on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. The Jets are coming off a 27-21 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. As for the Cowboys, they tied 40-40 with the Green Bay Packers last week. According to the latest Week 5 NFL odds, the Cowboys are 2.5-point favorites. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) and the Seattle Seahawks (3-1) play at 4:05 p.m. ET in an NFC contest. Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders (2-2) and the Los Angeles Chargers (3-1) square off at 4:25 p.m. ET. The model is projecting all these teams to cover on Sunday and are part of a big underdog parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook that pays over 6-1.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 39-20 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Three Sunday underdog betting picks for NFL Week 5 (odds subject to change):Â
Cowboys vs. Jets (+2.5) (-105)Buccaneers (+3) vs. Seahawks (+102)Commanders (+2.5) vs. Chargers (+100)
Combining the model’s three picks into an underdog parlay at FanDuel would result in a payout of +688 (risk $100 to win $688).
Cowboys vs. Jets (+2.5) (-105, FanDuel)
The Jets have dropped the first four games of the season, but have a chance to be productive in this outing. New York is third in the league in rushing offense (144.5) and is facing a Cowboys defense that’s had its fair share of problems thus far. Dallas is 32nd in the league in total defense (420.5) and 31st in scoring defense (33). The Cowboys offense will put up points, but New York will also get the same chance, and the model thinks they’ll keep it close. SportsLine’s model has the Jets covering the spread in 51% of simulations, with the Cowboys taking a 27-25 win.
Buccaneers (+3) vs. Seahawks (+102, FanDuel)
The Bucs took their first loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but only lost by six points. Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown for 904 passing yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. Rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka is 12th in the NFL in receiving yards (282) and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (4). All of Tampa Bay’s games this season have been decided by one possession. The model expects that trend to continue and has the Bucs covering the spread in 53% of simulations.Â
Commanders (+2.5) vs. Chargers (+100, FanDuel)
Washington will have Jayden Daniels back under center after he missed the last two games with a sprained knee. That will give this team a boost, who went 5-3-1 ATS as the underdog in 2024 with Daniels. Receiver Deebo Samuel is leading the way for Washington with 204 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers took a loss to the New York Giants in Week 4 and lost Joe Alt, who is doubtful for this game with an ankle injury. SportsLine’s model projects that Washington covers the spread in 49% of simulations.Â