The stock market drifted to fresh records on Thursday as the government shutdown entered its second day.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 79 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 was up 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.4%. The S&P and Nasdaq each marked their 30th record closing highs of the year, while the Dow marked its 10th.
All three indexes have risen together five trading days in a row for the first time since Aug. 19, 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note rose to 3.55%. The 10-year yield was down to 4.09%.
Nvidia and other chip stocks continued to rise as updates surrounding OpenAI have rejuvenated the artificial intelligence rally.
There wasn’t much going on Wall Street. The shutdown meant data on initial jobless claims were suspended. Traders will also have to wait until the shutdown resolves for the September nonfarm payrolls report, which would have been due out on Friday.
Market observers have repeatedly pointed to data that the S&P 500 has gained on average during government shutdowns, though such numbers include a big rally during the late 2018 to early 2019 shutdown that featured a dovish pivot from Federal Reserve Chairman Jeorme Powell.
“Anytime we start a new quarter or month, the key is to identify areas that can lead going forward,” Frank Cappelleri, founder of technical analysis firm CappThesis, tells Barron’s. “Thus, as we get into earnings season—the focus will be on potential rotation. Technology remains the leader, but there’s been enough participation elsewhere to keep things balanced up to this point.”
Traders will keep eyes peeled for alternative data points and any chatter out of Washington, D.C. Traders on Polymarket see a 47% chance the shutdown lasts until Oct. 15 or later, and a 32% chance it ends between Oct. 10 and Oct. 14. Odds it resolves before the weekend are down to about 2%.