Can the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets adjust their offenses? Where does the Houston Rockets’ playmaking come from? Is youth the new market inefficiency?
A look at the Eastern Conference was published earlier this week. Here are the five Western Conference storylines I’m looking forward to following this season:
What does the Los Angeles Lakers’ defense look like?
The basketball world is eager to see the LeBron James-Luka Dončić pairing. Sure, we got a glimpse of it last season, but what’s to come could be new.
Dončić arrived in Los Angeles in February. He had no training camp with the Lakers. Coach JJ Redick improvised on the fly, implementing an offense that revolved around James and Dončić. But those two gentlemen did not always interact.
James and Dončić played in 25 games together. One is the greatest player of his generation (at worst). The other is one of the all-time offensive hubs. But James screened for Dončić on only 44 pick-and-rolls, according to Second Spectrum. The reverse is even more jarring. Dončić, who doesn’t screen as often as James does, set only seven picks in James-operated pick-and-rolls. That’s less than once every three games.
Now, Dončić has a training camp to grow chemistry with James. And yet, the dynamic between two basketball experts is not the most drastic way the team will change.
The Lakers’ defense is a wild card — not just in terms of quality but also in terms of style.
By the end of last season, Los Angeles was deploying the NBA’s most aggressive switching defense. The Lakers would encounter a screen, and the two defenders involved in the play would promptly switch their assignments. After the Dončić trade, which forced an identity shift by sending defensive backbone Anthony Davis out of town, the Lakers switched on 43 percent of the screens they encountered. Not only did that figure lead the league; if it were extrapolated over a full season, it would have tied for the highest switching frequency for any team since Second Spectrum began tracking the stat in 2013.
The playoffs turned even more extreme. The Lakers switched on 61 percent of screens during their first-round loss to the Timberwolves, when Redick did away with centers and let a bunch of wings scramble.
But this year’s roster is different. The Lakers employ some defenders they will want to hide, and others who can’t freely jump onto a guard or big man.
They signed Deandre Ayton, a 7-footer who will defend the back ends of more pick-and-rolls than anyone else on the squad. And Ayton isn’t proficient enough in manning guards or wings to switch.
Whether they start Austin Reaves or bring him off the bench, many of their most important lineups will include Reaves and Dončić, a dominant offensive pairing but one that opponents would target on the other end.
The Lakers did not disrupt their core this summer, but the fabric of the team has changed, and how they play will adjust with it.
Can the Timberwolves speed up their offense?
The Timberwolves want to make life easier for Rudy Gobert.
Too often last season, they noticed him hesitate after snagging a defensive rebound. On one part of the floor would be All-NBA wing Anthony Edwards, hands up and ready to receive the basketball. On another, would be power forward Julius Randle, who could catch a pass and barrel to the hoop. And on another would be the point guard, Mike Conley.
The Wolves are simplifying the process because last season, despite a second consecutive run to the conference finals, wasn’t perfect.
Minnesota rarely got out running, in part because of scenarios like this one. Now, it’s changing the process.
It wants Randle and Edwards streaking to the corners or the wings in transition. Conley is supposed to come back for the pass. The goal is to get the basketball in the hands of the squad’s most mature decision-maker. Conley can push it down the court, or even kick a dish ahead to a sprinting Randle or Edwards.
The team hopes this will open up buckets for its leading scorers while allowing it to play faster.
The Timberwolves turned only 22 percent of their defensive rebounds into fast breaks last season, the lowest transition frequency in the NBA, according to Cleaning the Glass. They’d like to change that.
It starts with a swift release from Gobert, a glass glutton who is in these situations more than anyone else in Minnesota. But there’s more. The Wolves were just 24th in kick-ahead passes last season, according to Second Spectrum. Those are the ones where someone like Conley receives the ball 70 feet from the basket, then fires it downcourt to a streaking Randle or Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.
Those plays can become more common, too.
The Wolves have spacing issues. Gobert clogs up the middle. Neither Randle nor Jaden McDaniels is an accurate enough long-range shooter to justify defenders rushing at them on the 3-point arc. The paint can get crowded in Minnesota, one reason why Edwards hoisted so many pull-up 3s last season, even in transition.
Maybe the Wolves’ scoring can improve if they create a few more fast breaks, opening the court on those plays.
Where does the Rockets’ playmaking come from?
A team of stars and young up-and-comers was disproportionately reliant on a savvy, veteran point guard. Once Fred VanVleet tore his ACL, ending his season before it ever started, Houston was in trouble.
VanVleet was an ideal fit on the rising Rockets, a playmaker when the team needed one and a catch-and-shoot weapon when another scorer handled. Now, offense must come from elsewhere. But who takes on the burden from Houston’s leading assist man?
Could it be someone who isn’t on the roster right now? The Rockets were ready to compete with the upperclassmen, the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets and the rest of the muscled-up West. What if they get through the first couple months of the season, realize they are one VanVleet-level point guard away from contending, then pull off a midseason trade? They are loaded with first-round picks and young players. If any star is available, and the Rockets want in, they can make sure to — even after trading for Kevin Durant this summer.
Could it be a more modest trade, a competent stopgap they could acquire for a few second-round picks?
Could it be Alperen Şengün, one of the league’s savviest passing centers? Şengün can slice dimes to cutters from the high post, but running offense through that part of the court can limit the number of 3-pointers a team creates. The Rockets struggled to spawn enough 3s last season, and that was with VanVleet. Houston needs ways to get into the paint, then kick out from there.
Could Reed Sheppard, the No. 3 pick in the 2024 draft, catapult from out of the rotation to a vital facilitator on a contender?
Amen Thompson, who should be the favorite for Most Improved Player, will receive his chance to shine. Thompson is an especially fine passer in transition, where he speeds in front of defenses and annihilates rims but also gets others involved. But Thompson isn’t a point guard.
The Phoenix Suns’ late-game offense last season was a simple yet effective one: Give the ball to Durant, and get out of the way. Durant may be 37, but he is still in the top tier of the league’s best scorers. The Suns averaged 1.21 points per possession on his isolations, the highest average in the NBA, by far, according to Second Spectrum. But can he do enough to power a team that aspires to be more than just a first-round out, as it was this past spring?
The Rockets have gone all in on size. The Şengün-Steven Adams lineups dominated last season. Now, they can play those two together with Jabari Smith Jr. at small forward. Durant could play the two in those lineups. That’s four players, all 6-foot-11, on the court together. The 6-foot-7 energizer, Thompson, could be the shrimp in a point guard-less unit.
The roster oozes with length, athleticism, defense and physicality. Tari Eason can take away one side of the floor with his eagerness in passing lanes. Dorian Finney-Smith is a pro’s pro on the wings. Somehow, veteran 7-footer Clint Capela is on this team, too.
The Rockets can exhaust anyone. Some teams can’t take a punch, especially not from a group this brawny. Some can’t keep up with their athleticism. They will try to break. Transition basketball can mute a team’s need for a point guard. They will survive on offensive rebounds, one of their greatest strengths last year. But how they create buckets in the half court will make or break their season.
The injury to Fred VanVleet has thrown a big wrench in the Houston Rockets’ plans. (Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
How many 3-pointers do the new-look Nuggets create?
The obvious, longtime flaw with the Nuggets has been the “Nikola Jokić-or-nothing” of it all. When the three-time MVP plays, Denver is the 1996 Chicago Bulls. When he doesn’t, the team changes into its Washington Generals garb.
Now, the Nuggets have a bench.
They added a reliable backup to Jokić in Jonas Valančiūnas. They brought back Bruce Brown, a member of the 2023 title team whom they couldn’t afford to retain a couple of summers ago. They signed a shooter, Tim Hardaway Jr., who lit up nets last season in Detroit. And for their big move, they exchanged Michael Porter Jr., a stand-still 3-point marksman, for Cam Johnson, another threat from deep who can do more with the basketball and guard with pep.
But can the Nuggets create more jumpers for Johnson and co.?
Only 36 percent of the Nuggets’ field-goal attempts last season came from beyond the arc, last in the NBA. They rarely took 3s from the corners, the most efficient areas. It was the second consecutive year Denver has trailed all 29 teams in 3-point attempt rate.
At some point, the math can sink a team, even one that employs the best player in the world.
The issue has been less about making 3s and more about generating them. The simplest way to create quality, catch-and-shoot jumpers is for dribblers to barrage the rim. But Denver didn’t do that much last season.
The Nuggets could run. Jokić isn’t just the best passer in the NBA; he’s also the greatest outlet passer, pulling transition opportunities out of hats. He is the main reason Christian Braun led the league in fast-break points last season. But once Denver settled into its half-court offense, its mode of getting into the paint was the Jokić post-up — without much more.
This team finished last in the NBA in drives per 100 possessions, according to Second Spectrum. This wasn’t a coaching flaw as much as it was a commentary on their roster. Porter wouldn’t put the ball on the floor, even as a hard closeout flew in his direction. For whatever reason, Aaron Gordon stopped attacking, too. The possessions that teams like the Boston Celtics mastered, the ones when the ball hits the paint and then kicks back out for an open 3, were less common in Denver.
But this season, the personnel is different.
Johnson can attack a closeout with more confidence than Porter did. Brown can run a pick-and-roll or can set screens, which allows him to rumble downhill and create from there, a staple on the 2023 championship team. Hardaway will let it fly as soon as he touches it.
Like with Dončić and the Lakers, Nuggets coach David Adelman didn’t get a training camp last season, either, instead replacing Michael Malone mere days before the playoffs began. He won his first postseason series and took the eventual champs to seven games before falling to the Thunder.
This is Adelman’s first chance to implement his offense. Maybe it can include more 3s.
Is youth the new market inefficiency?
Last season’s playoffs turned into a war of attrition.
Stephen Curry went down, then so did the Golden State Warriors. The Cavaliers dropped one by one. The Milwaukee Bucks lost Damian Lillard. Kristaps Porziņģis got sick with … something. Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles.
No coincidence, the Indiana Pacers and Thunder, two of the spring’s healthiest teams, were standing at the end, though injuries even killed the vibes of the NBA Finals after Tyrese Haliburton became the third star to tear an Achilles during the playoffs.
The Thunder were young, as were the Pacers. Between the two teams, only a couple of rotation regulars, Alex Caruso and T.J. McConnell, were in their 30s.
Does this trend continue into 2025-26?
The Western Conference is set to be the next ” The Hunger Games” sequel, only slightly more traumatizing. The Thunder could win 70-plus games. The Rockets, Nuggets and Timberwolves can beat anyone. Even teams aspiring for the Play-In Tournament are a chore to play. The young San Antonio Spurs could make a leap, especially if 21-year-old sensation Victor Wembanyama stays healthy. The Portland Trail Blazers sneakily caught fire at the end of last season and added veterans this summer.
Can the elder statesmen make it through such a nightly grind?
The Golden State Warriors come to mind first. They went 23-7 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup last season and finally resolved Jonathan Kuminga’s free-agent drama this week. But look at the core, of which Kuminga, who Golden State will try to trade, is not a member.
The three key guys — Curry, Butler and Draymond Green — are all 35-plus. Al Horford, who will start at center, is immortal, yet still pushing 40. Can a team with this makeup compete with younger, more athletic ones, like the Thunder or Rockets?
The LA Clippers are the others. Until allegations of cap circumvention popped up, the Clippers had a promising offseason, essentially turning Norman Powell into John Collins and Bradley Beal while also adding Chris Paul for point guard insurance and Brook Lopez to back up another massive 7-footer, Ivica Zubac. But this team is rickety.
Kawhi Leonard and Beal are injury-prone. Bogdan Bogdanović is already hurt. Seven Clippers are in their 30s, and one, Paul, is 40.
LA finished third in points allowed per possession last season and looked like a contender once Leonard began playing at his peak. But beyond having to overcome the noise of an NBA investigation, can they overcome their middle age?
(Top photo of Luka Dončić and LeBron James: Harry How / Getty Images)