The Edmonton Oilers, superficially, find themselves in a familiar spot. They’re coming off a Stanley Cup Final loss to the Florida Panthers, and they’re projected to be the best regular-season team in the league. We’ve seen that already.

Less tangibly, though, the discourse surrounding the team feels different. There’s more tension and more uncertainty — understandable byproducts, given last year’s “similar but worse” outcome.

That’s not to say things are bad. That’d be impossible with the best hockey player on Earth and the reigning top goal scorer on the same roster. Still, more of the same doesn’t feel like much of an option.

The projection

Just like last season, the Oilers enter the season as the league’s top team. Is this the year they fulfill that promise?

That’s a question that’s become significantly more loaded over the last month or so after Connor McDavid made abundantly clear how much he believed in the 2025-26 roster … but nothing beyond.

McDavid has every reason to believe this current iteration can get it done. In each of the past two seasons, they’ve come painfully close, and they enter this season with a comparably strong roster. It’s in them to go the distance once again — they just need to get over the hump.

But if McDavid really doesn’t believe in the beyond, this could be Edmonton’s last chance to do it. In the cruel world of hockey, even the best team only starts with a roughly one-in-10 shot. Without McDavid, they won’t come anywhere close to this spot in the league’s hierarchy for a long time.

It’s time to make it count.

The big question

Is this Edmonton’s last gasp with McDavid?

We’ve yet to see McDavid’s conundrum — sign long-term, sign short-term, sign somewhere else — summed up as succinctly as the way one agent presented it to The Athletic’s James Mirtle and Daniel Nugent-Bowman in a recent story.

“What he’s telling everybody is, ‘I want to win here with my friends,’” the agent said. “Makes sense. The problem is, ‘I don’t know that I can.’ At least, I believe that’s the issue.”

It’s certainly what the issue should be. Edmonton is in this spot because McDavid is on the team. That’s not meant to short-change anyone, particularly the great Leon Draisaitl, but McDavid’s gravitational pull is that intense. Swap him out for an average player and Edmonton goes from No. 1 on this list to a potential playoff dark horse. Maybe you’d pick them to win a round, maybe you wouldn’t. Think Minnesota or Ottawa.

What’s more, McDavid — even as it relates to Draisaitl — has a skill set that gussies up the projections of the players in his orbit. Is Draisaitl winning MVPs without him? Is Evan Bouchard making generational money? Would we have been forced to partake in the “Zach Hyman, 50-goal-scorer” discourse? No, no and no.

As ever, though, the fundamental problem for the Oilers is that the rest of the roster falls significantly short of what we’ve seen from other, more successful organizations that have also had superstars at the top of the food chain. The Tampa Bay Lightning come to mind: they won the Stanley Cup with Steven Stamkos on the bench, and they put themselves in position to win it a second time with a 110-point regular season that came with Nikita Kucherov on LTIR. Past versions of the Oilers come to mind, as well — they won the 1990 Stanley Cup without Wayne Gretzky. These Oilers managing anything similar, lofty position on this list aside, is borderline unfathomable.

To put it a different way: As McDavid enters his 11th season, this is the best forward group that has ever surrounded him. Projected to provide about 38 goals’ worth of value, they’re ranked first overall. However, if you replaced McDavid with a garden-variety first-line center, they would just barely scrape into the top 10. If, say, he were injured and replaced in the lineup with a standard-issue fourth-liner, they’d fall out of the top 20.

There are even fewer positive things to say about the goaltending situation. Edmonton made its big move at the tail end of the preseason by adding Connor Ingram as a depth option behind Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard, who would begin the season as the 27th-ranked goaltending tandem in the league.

If either Pickard or Ingram turns out to be a more viable option than Skinner, it’ll be bad news for the Oilers — and that shouldn’t be the case, given Skinner is coming off a sub-.900 regular season and a Stanley Cup Final that saw him pulled twice before losing an elimination game 5-1. Skinner, by any reasonable standard, should not be their unquestioned starter, nor should he deserve to be. But somehow, that is where the Oilers find themselves.

It’s where McDavid finds himself, too. Now we’ll see how much longer that stays true.

The wild card

Can Isaac Howard, Matthew Savoie and David Tomasek be difference-makers in the middle six?

What’s the best way to offset pricey contracts? Entry-level talent. Howard and Savoie each take up less than $1 million on the books, which helps Edmonton balance out the rising costs of the Bouchard and Draisaitl extensions. And they add a much-needed infusion of youth to the Oilers — if they can perform.

On a rebuilding team, or even one in the middle of the pack, there’s room for growing pains. Edmonton isn’t that. This is a team with a singular focus for 2025-26: winning the Stanley Cup.

Savoie and Howard, at least, are more interesting than most bargain-bin free-agent signings, after the Oilers went that route last year and it very clearly didn’t work out. Savoie was an effective scorer in the CHL and AHL and can play with pace. Howard is dangerous offensively and strong in his own zone. But that doesn’t always translate to the NHL in Year 1. These aren’t the No. 1 drafted prospects, after all; Scott Wheeler has them right in the middle at 53 and 49, respectively. That makes this decision a high-risk, high-reward move.

The same applies to Tomasek, who is coming over to the NHL at 29 years old after leading the Swedish league in scoring. He, at least, looks poised to join a high-octane power-play unit in a net-front role while Hyman is sidelined. That could boost his confidence and trickle into five-on-five play.

 

The strengths

No team has more defined strengths and weaknesses than the Oilers. Everyone who casually follows the game knows why this team is one of the league’s best — and also why they still haven’t gotten it done.

Let’s start with the fun part: McDavid, a player who can completely transform a team overnight. He is the best hockey has to offer and once again enters the season at the top of the pyramid. We’re talking about a guy with a plus-30 Net Rating on his own, a mark that only six or seven teams reach in total.

His impact is felt through all three zones, leading to a 61.4 percent expected goals rate over the last two seasons, narrowly second in the league to Hyman. He puts up numbers like few others can, creates chances at an unbelievable rate, moves the puck up ice like a hot knife through butter and is the key cog to one of the most frightening power plays in league history. McDavid is also underrated defensively, given the attention put on him by opponents’ best players and the pace at which he pushes the game.

When a 122-point pace is viewed as a down year, you know we’re talking about a truly special talent.

Thankfully, McDavid is not alone here. Draisaitl raised the bar significantly last season, putting up a Hart-caliber effort. He led the league with 52 goals while significantly improving his two-way effort to the tune of a 60 percent xG. Most importantly, he stepped up in minutes away from McDavid — not the other way around. In an off year (by McDavid’s lofty standards), Draisaitl carried the weight. As a result, he enters the season as the second-best player in the world with a plus-26.9 Net Rating.

Put those two together and that’s basically the entirety of Edmonton’s total value. They are the team. Even calling an Oilers team sans McDavid and Draisaitl average feels wrong. We do our best to account for teammate quality, but these two are obviously an extreme edge case where our best efforts may fall short.

Still, as it stands, there’s a reason the rest of the roster is decently regarded.

Part of that is the continued contributions of Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. While both are older and coming off down seasons, they have a long track record of being difference-makers. Hyman is a forechecking fiend and is only one year removed from a 54-goal season. As for Nugent-Hopkins, there are more red flags in his game — specifically, his chance contribution rate dropping — but he should still be able to deliver top-six value.

The much larger part, though, is Edmonton’s defense corps. The addition of Jake Walman has significantly elevated the group, creating a serious source of strength for the Oilers. If McDavid and Draisaitl are this team’s engine, the blue line is the backbone.

Naturally, that starts with the top pair of Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm. Yes, Bouchard has his detractors thanks to his penchant for the odd big mistake and yes, Ekholm looked a lot less effective at times last season. But we’re still talking about a pair that’s clicked at a 60 percent xG rate or better for three straight seasons across 2,460 minutes. They lead the league with a 60.8 percent xG rate among pairs that have played 500 minutes or more in that time frame.

Part of that is because of frequent shifts playing with McDavid and Draisaitl, but both players’ strengths also mesh well with them. Bouchard’s offensive game is rocket fuel for those two and he’s a major asset on the power play. That he elevates his game further come playoff time is a nice bonus. Ekholm’s defensive presence — without sacrificing offense himself — ties it all together, though we’ll see how effective he still is after a shortened summer of injury recovery.

The Oilers needed more of that, and that’s where Walman comes in. He had a renaissance year with the Sharks as a play-driver and carried that over to the Oilers, where his puck-moving ability was on full display. Most notably, Walman seemed to click with Darnell Nurse, earning a 60 percent xG rate in limited minutes during both the regular season and playoffs. A second pair at that level is a big deal. It’s what gives the Oilers the league’s best top four. Their combined plus-30 edges out both Colorado and Dallas at plus-25.

A sizzling top four led by two of the best players in the world and a loaded defense group with a strong blend of skill and snarl is a potent combination. Together, it’s enough to give the Oilers a very strong chance of winning it all this season.

As with any Oilers season in this era, though, that comes with some important caveats.

The weaknesses

Edmonton’s weaknesses are the same as always, and it’s the reason why it’s a legitimate question whether this is this group’s last shot. The Oilers may have the most overall value on their roster, but it’s largely concentrated toward the top end — especially up front. The team’s forward depth, specifically the secondary scoring, is unacceptable. The team’s goaltending is also unacceptable.

Let’s start with what’s salvageable: the forwards. If last year’s playoffs proved anything, it’s that this group can reach a higher level than expected when it matters most. That’s worth something, even if it doesn’t currently look great on paper. It suggests that with the right combinations and the correct levers pulled, Edmonton’s forward depth might not be as big a problem as it currently seems.

But make no mistake, it is currently an issue. That’s because of the team’s lack of a secondary layer. Take the top and bottom of the roster out of the equation and focus on the middle. Even if we include Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton’s middle-six forwards enter the season with a combined Net Rating of minus-12. In contrast, the other top five contenders are all above water with a plus-five average.

That’s a big difference and it means less help for the team’s two brightest stars on the wings. It’s possible the team’s trio of rookie wild cards all step in as immediate difference-makers. But the hopes otherwise rest on Andrew Mangiapane, Vasily Podkolzin and Trent Frederic. The Oilers need at least two of the six to really step up.

The bigger problem, of course, is between the pipes. We don’t need to saddle you with any more Stuart Skinner “fun facts,” but it’s worth noting he now doesn’t even have a solid regular season to fall back on. Skinner’s plus-seven GSAx ranked 34th last year, which now puts him in the same company as the league’s other below-average starters.

We’ve seen Skinner play well before — it just comes in unpredictable spurts. He needs a safety net and the Oilers rolling the dice with Pickard is arguably the far more egregious issue. Pickard has won some big games, but is a journeyman who is coming off a .900 season where he allowed 5.9 goals above expected, one of the league’s worst marks. If a team does not have a true starter, it’s imperative to have a 1B behind him or, at the very least, a capable backup. Pickard isn’t even that. (Ingram could be, but probably isn’t.)

To put the hope of glory on this level of goaltending for the third straight season is organizational malpractice. If it means another season without a Cup and McDavid running for the exits, the inability to address the team’s longest-standing issue could be one of the league’s worst ever blunders.

The Oilers enter the season as the team to beat. Again. But they also enter the season with the same reasons they haven’t won it all already. With the age of some key contributors also in question, the clock is running out.

The best case: 122 points

The Oilers get a reversal of fortune and put up an utterly dominant regular season backed by another MVP-level season from McDavid, who extends early in the year. Edmonton cruises through the playoffs and wins the Stanley Cup, leaving no doubt that the Oilers are the league’s best team.

The worst case: 97 points

Edmonton’s elder support core — Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins and Ekholm — all take a step back that leaves McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard doing too much heavy-lifting. The Oilers limp to the playoffs as a wild card, where Skinner does the rest. The McDavid era is over after he walks in free agency.

The bottom line

It was always going to be Cup or bust for the Oilers after two straight losses in the Final. But until the McDavid contract situation is resolved, the pressure to win now is higher than ever. That gives Edmonton 82 games to figure out how to ensure its strengths outweigh the weaknesses when it matters most.

References
How the model works
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty

Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

(Photo: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)