Photo: Larry MacDougal/3DownNation. All rights reserved.

It’s Week 18 in the Canadian Football League and it certainly seems like the more we think we know about these teams, the more surprises they present us.

Last week, the three best teams in the CFL all lost by a combined 57 points, creating a little more drama to the finish of the season. So, let’s make our way through the chaos and find an edge this week.

Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Ottawa Redblacks — Friday, October 3 at 7:30 p.m. EDT

The West Division-leading Saskatchewan Roughriders head out to Ottawa looking to snap their two-game losing skid. The Riders had a chance to move six points clear of the Calgary Stampeders for the top spot in the standings but stumbled against the Edmonton Elks in a 27-25 loss to Cody Fajardo, the team’s former franchise quarterback.

The Green and White are facing an Ottawa team that has also struggled as of late, losing their last two to fall out of playoff contention. The Redblacks are an interesting team to analyze on the defensive side as they’ve given up the second-fewest passing yards and rushing yards per game in the league, but they’ve allowed the second-most points per game. One big reason for this could be in the turnover department as Ottawa has the third-worst turnover differential in the league.

That will make this week tricky against a Riders team that, despite last week’s performance, has the third-best turnover differential in the CFL. Trevor Harris has struggled a bit in the turnover department lately but overall, this is still a group that does a good job of holding onto the ball.

One area where Saskatchewan has been vulnerable lately is in the secondary, where injuries have depleted a group that was looking like one of the best in the league. The Riders have given up over 300 yards through the air in each of the last two weeks, a mark that Ottawa QB Dru Brown has reached four times during his injury-plagued season.

Quite a few numbers actually point toward Ottawa this week, but with Saskatchewan still having so much on the line, I can’t imagine them putting out the same performance they had last week in Edmonton. I think Dru Brown has a good day for the Redblacks but, much like in the season opener between these two, I don’t think it will be enough to get Ottawa across the line with a win.

I was prepared to look at Ottawa if the number was right this week, but it turns out I trust the Riders a bit more than the oddsmakers do this week.

PICK: Saskatchewan -3.5, Dru Brown OVER 304.5 passing yards
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Toronto Argonauts — Saturday, October 4 at 3:00 p.m. EDT

The East Division-leading Hamilton Tiger-Cats are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss to Winnipeg last week as they take on their provincial rivals in Toronto.

The Argos have been playing much better football in the back part of the season, but it does look like it could be too little, too late with the West crossover teams starting to hit their stride. Instead of getting back to the Grey Cup, they will look to play spoiler for Hamilton, who has just a two-point lead on Montreal for first in the standings. 

It looked like Hamilton had found their groove again after a Labour Day loss to the Boatmen when they beat Montreal, Winnipeg, and Edmonton, but last week’s 37-point loss certainly feels like a step in the wrong direction.

These two teams have split the season series so far with both games seeing some big point totals. We will see if this can be a get-right game for Hamilton’s entire team, but it should be one for Bo Levi Mitchell, who has averaged 368.5 yards and four touchdown passes per game in the two matchups with Toronto.

On the other side, Nick Arbuckle has also enjoyed this rivalry with an average of 345.5 passing yards per game in the two games with the Ticats, while adding five touchdowns. His passing yardage number has been set at 312.5 — a mark he hasn’t hit in the last couple of weeks, but he reached that mark in the previous six games and has done so in both matchups against Toronto this season.

Even with Toronto’s play improving and Hamilton’s being inconsistent, I still view the Ticats as the better team, so only having to give up 1.5 points to pick them this week is enough to draw me in. I am also confident we will get another big game from both quarterbacks in this matchup.

PICK: Hamilton -1.5, Nick Arbuckle OVER 312.5 passing yards, Bo Levi Mitchell OVER 310.5 passing yards.