KPMG Playoff Probability: Who is the 112th Grey Cup favourite?

TORONTO — Another week, another new Grey Cup favourite.

Post-OK Tire Labour Day Weekend, there has been a different Grey Cup favourite every week. That’s a great example of just how close this season is, with many teams having the formula to hoist the coveted trophy in November.

Heading into WestJet Thanksgiving Weekend, the Saskatchewan Roughriders have become the first team to emerge as the favourite for a second time.

KPMG Playoff Probability, formerly know as the CFL Simulation, is here to tell us which team is the favourite to win the 112th Grey Cup and much more.

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As always, we’ll give readers a reminder that Playoff Probability is a snapshot of this particular moment in the season, working with the data provided by teams’ records through the first 18 weeks of play.

Below is where every team stands ahead of Week 19.

Odds to Make Playoffs

TEAM
PROJECTION

Saskatchewan
C

Hamilton
C

Montreal
C

BC
C

Winnipeg
99.06%

Calgary
88.04%

Edmonton
12.90%

Toronto
E

Ottawa
E

 

Odds to Host a Playoff Game

TEAM
PROJECTION

Hamilton
C

Montreal
C

Saskatchewan
99.62%

Winnipeg
49.96%

BC
46.14%

Calgary
4.28%

Ottawa
E

Toronto
E

Edmonton
E

 

Odds to Win the East

TEAM
PROJECTION

Hamilton
99.87%

Montreal
0.13%

Toronto
E

Ottawa
E

 

Odds to Win the West

TEAM
PROJECTION

Saskatchewan
97.85%

BC
1.35%

Calgary
0.80%

Winnipeg
E

Edmonton
E

 

Odds to Appear in the 112th Grey Cup

TEAM
PROJECTION

Hamilton
72.21%

Saskatchewan
55.74%

Winnipeg
29.60%

Montreal
22.04%

BC
17.75%

Calgary
1.81%

Edmonton
0.85%

Toronto
E

Ottawa
E

 

Odds to Win the 112th Grey Cup

TEAM
PROJECTION

Saskatchewan
33.26%

Hamilton
25.15%

Winnipeg
22.21%

BC
11.83%

Montreal
6.91%

Calgary
0.35%

Edmonton
0.29%

Toronto
E

Ottawa
E

 

Most Likely 112th Grey Cup Matchups

TEAM
PROJECTION

Saskatchewan/Hamilton
40.07%

Winnipeg/Hamilton
19.95%

Saskatchewan/Montreal
12.28%

BC/Hamilton
11.73%

Winnipeg/Montreal
6.16%

 

Probability of a West Division Crossover

C