WASHINGTON — In mid-March, in his most productive offensive game as a rookie, Alex Sarr offered a tantalizing glimpse of the player the Washington Wizards hope he will become.

Sarr buried 3-pointers, cut to the hoop for dunks and scored a career-high 34 points as he held his own against MVP candidate Nikola Jokić. The Wizards won, 126-123, and on that night, Sarr affirmed why Washington coveted him.

“He is good,” Jokić said afterward. “He shot the ball really well. He was rolling. He was playing off the others really good. So, I think he has a future in the NBA for sure.”

How, exactly, Sarr’s future will play out often ignites spirited debate. Perhaps none of the Wizards’ many prospects elicit more passionate, and more divergent, opinions than Sarr does. The gangly 7-footer receives heightened scrutiny because Washington selected him with the second pick in the 2024 draft and because some of his most worrisome stats — most notably, his inefficiency as a scorer and his below-average defensive-rebounding rate — equips naysayers with easy kindling for their arguments.

Sarr’s advocates counter with one of basketball’s maxims: Young centers, especially lanky ones such as Sarr, usually require more time to develop physically than perimeter players. Sarr played his entire rookie season at 19 years old, and despite his strength and weight disadvantages, he nonetheless sank at least 100 3s, blocked at least 100 shots and dished out at least 100 assists. Only three rookies have accomplished that feat since the introduction of the 3-point line during the 1979-80 season. The others? Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren and San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama. Excellent company.

So, what’s the most likely long-term outcome for Sarr? To help assess his strengths, weaknesses and potential, I spoke with five talent evaluators who work in NBA front offices. The Athletic granted them anonymity because teams almost never allow their scouts to speak to news outlets about opposing players. Without granting anonymity, articles such as this one could not exist. Anonymity also allows the scouts to be completely honest, without fear of reprisals.

The scouts acknowledge that, because of his youth and inexperience, Sarr initially was thought of, and still should be thought of, as a long-term developmental project.

Other than that, the opinions vary.

“I would be surprised if he doesn’t take a big leap this year, and that big leap will be being effective on the floor and trying to impact the team outcome as opposed to impacting his individual outcome,” Scout A said.

“There’s still a lot (of untapped potential) as to what he could be. It was probably a slower start than maybe the general fan would hope for. But I think by the end of the season, he had been put in a position to succeed, and we’re going to see more of that built on this season. We’re going to see it start to pay dividends this season.”

Scout B provided a less optimistic view.

“A big question mark is his shooting,” Scout B said. “Is he a stretch five offensively? But he’s never really shot it well anywhere. He didn’t shoot it well with Overtime Elite. He didn’t shoot it well last year. I don’t think he shot it well abroad. He takes a lot of shots, 3s. He takes kind of casual 3s. I mean, is this guy really a shooter?”

Sarr’s strengths

Wizards officials regard Sarr as a modern NBA big, someone who fits within the same archetype that Holmgren, Wembanyama, Cleveland’s Evan Mobley inhabit: mobile big men who can switch on defense, protect the rim, pass and shoot.

Now let’s be clear, before any false controversy erupts: Wizards officials are not claiming that Sarr is as good a player as Holmgren, Wembanyama and Mobley are.

The Wizards’ argument revolves more around versatility. Holmgren, Wembanyama and Mobley impact games through a wide range of skills, from protecting the rim to switching onto perimeter players to stretching the floor. Per Basketball Reference, only five players last season compiled at least 100 made 3s, blocked at least 100 shots and had 100 assists: Milwaukee’s Brook Lopez (now with the LA Clippers), Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr., Indiana’s Myles Turner (now with Milwaukee), Wembanyama and Sarr.

“He’s a versatile, skilled player,” Wizards general manager Will Dawkins said of Sarr. “He’ll get more efficient. He will get more physical. He’s grown half an inch. The guy is still growing. He’s further away from being the physical center that everybody, I think, wants more from him. But he’s a skilled basketball player, and he’s only going to get better. And what he did in Year One (in the) league rankings is pretty impressive.”

In May 2024 at the NBA Draft Combine, Sarr measured 6-foot-11 3/4 without sneakers. Dawkins said that Sarr now stands over 7 feet tall.

Sarr exploited his height last season, finishing eighth in blocks per game, at 1.5. “Obviously, he has a lot of good tools defensively,” Scout C said. “I think that that’s an aspect of his game, that if he applies himself, he can truly be impactful in.”

Coach Brian Keefe gave Sarr the freedom to switch onto perimeter players, even point guards on occasion, to take advantage of Sarr’s agility and give the young big experience. Sarr’s ability to switch onto players at any position would make the Wizards’ defense more formidable because effective switching schemes limit the number of times defenders have to rotate.

“We think he can switch one through five,” Keefe said. “I think the numbers bear that out pretty well, too. But we’ll see more of that for him. That’s one of his keys: He’s versatile. He obviously can protect the rim; we know that. But he can also guard on the perimeter. So, it’s nice to have that versatility.”

Keefe added: “He has some physical gifts. Obviously, his speed, his quickness. There’s also a mentality to it. Not everybody wants to do that. I think he has a defensive mentality. He understands that that’s an important part of his game.”

Here, in this video clip from the Wizards’ 136-95 loss to Oklahoma City on Jan. 12, the Thunder isolate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Sarr. Although Gilgeous-Alexander gains a step on a drive, Sarr recovers enough to block Gilgeous-Alexander’s layup attempt.

“I always thought that his defense was going to be fine,” Scout D said. “He’s going to figure out a way to block shots. He’s going to figure out a way to impact the ball in pick-and-roll situations at the point of attack.”

Sarr’s agility, speed and comfort handling the basketball enable him to collect defensive rebounds and dribble upcourt to initiate fast breaks. Those abilities stand out among the league’s centers. The ballhandling can be improved, and likely will improve in time, but for now, his natural inclination to push forward with the ball adds to his uniqueness.

While it’s accurate that a good portion of Sarr’s 161 assists came on handoffs last season, he demonstrated impressive court vision for a 7-footer and showed a desire to make plays for others. Scout E said Sarr’s feel for finding open teammates on the perimeter or cutting to the basket was impressive for a 19-year-old.

The following sequence, from the Wizards’ season finale in Miami, illustrates Sarr’s abilities to protect the rim, handle the ball in the open court and pass. Here, Sarr contests a shot by the Heat’s Josh Christopher that Christopher misses, grabs the rebound and speeds ahead. Sarr sends a well-placed bounce pass to teammate Colby Jones for a layup.

Sarr assisted on 13.9 percent of his teammates’ made baskets when he was on the court, according to Cleaning the Glass, an advanced analytics database that excludes stats compiled during garbage time. That assist percentage ranked in the 70th percentile among all NBA bigs, better than highly skilled bigs such as Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porziņģis, Jackson and Holmgren.

The best way to describe Sarr’s offensive game at this early stage in his career is to call him a perimeter player with the body of a 7-footer. Sarr relies on finesse and does not play with much force. He appears more comfortable facing the basket rather than playing with his back to it, making him the antithesis of a traditional big. Scout B put it bluntly, saying Sarr has “no post-up game at all.”

Wizards coaches and players encouraged Sarr to launch 3s last season. He attempted 5.1 shots per game from beyond the arc, and Cleaning the Glass, which also excludes heaves at the end of quarters, ranked him in the 72nd percentile among bigs in 3-point-attempt frequency.

In December, he made 45.5 percent of his 3s on 4.9 attempts per game, by far his best shooting month as a rookie. In the March victory in Denver, he made five of his nine attempts from long range, including a key late-game make from the left corner as Jokić closed on him. The capability is there, and his shooting motion looks sound.

Sarr’s weaknesses

But although his shooting motion looks sound, he struggled to stack strong shooting months together. He finished the season 30.8 percent from 3 — 30.8 percent before the All-Star break and 30.8 percent after the All-Star break.

“I thought he would struggle a little bit more than he did,” Scout D said. “He showed flashes of being a legit threat as a 3-point shooter. I didn’t quite believe in it as much when he came out of France, so I really had a hard time seeing how he’s going to be able to consistently score in the NBA. Just because of his physique, he’s going to have to be somewhat of a threat as a jump shooter. But for stretches last year, he looked like someone who could be a starter on the good playoff teams in the NBA.

“(The concern) was always for me his offense. Where does his offense eventually land? If the flashes of shooting are real, then he has a pretty good pathway to be an impactful offensive player as well, just be someone who can get a (lot of) 3s and a (lot of) blocks in a season consistently.”

Sarr made only 67.9 percent of his free throws as a rookie. To some, that percentage is either an ominous sign for his entire offensive game or a signal that his free-throw shooting can improve as his stamina improves.

Scouts also worry about his shooting inefficiencies in the paint. He made only 63 percent of his attempts at the rim, according to Cleaning the Glass, placing him in the 23rd percentile among all bigs. Sarr struggles to finish shots through contact against heavier bigs. Considering that he weighed 225 pounds last season, he was lighter than some opposing wings, a larger number of rival forwards and the overwhelming majority of his fellow bigs.

But his low percentage also stems from the manner of his close-range shots. Because he employs the approach of a perimeter player, he tends to take a disproportionate share (compared to other bigs) of shots on the move.

“He’s got put-the-ball-on-the-floor skills, though … he shot less than 40 percent for the year,” Scout B said. “That’s hard to do with his size, so he didn’t finish well. So, the question is finishing. But he does have ballhandling and driving skills. He can make the play off the short roll on the pick-and-roll.”

With Sarr, the issue isn’t always the distances from where he shots. It’s more about the difficulty of his shots and about rarely drawing fouls. According to Cleaning the Glass, he scored 96.1 points per 100 shot attempts, including field-goal attempts and trips to the free-throw line (including fouls in the bonus).

Sarr sat at rock bottom among bigs in points per shot attempt, ranking in the sixth percentile, largely because of his high volume of 3-point attempts and low percentage of makes but also because of his inefficiencies within the paint. Dallas’ Daniel Gafford, on the other hand, who didn’t attempt a single 3-pointer and typically limits his offense to dunks and also excels at drawing fouls, ranked in the 97th percentile. Gafford doesn’t stretch the floor, but he’s efficient offensively. Sarr can stretch the floor, but he’s so inefficient offensively that it raises questions about his feel for the game.

This clip, from the Wizards’ 124-90 loss to the Boston Celtics on April 6, shows Sarr driving against Al Horford, ultimately settling for a contested floater on the move with 18 seconds remaining on the shot clock. Sarr misses the shot.

Washington can stomach Sarr’s undisciplined shot diet because the team, still early in its rebuild, has little incentive to win right now. But it must improve in time.

That harkens back to one of his biggest weaknesses: his need to add strength. His brother, Olivier Sarr, who is six years older and is now a player within the Raptors’ organization, stands 6-foot-10 and weighs 240 pounds, so Wizards officials think Alex Sarr has the capability to add at least some muscle. Again, lanky centers tend to need time to develop physically. For now, though, his reliance on finesse contributes to his inefficiencies.

His lack of strength also hampers him on defense.

The Wizards’ defensive rating when he was on the court was 0.8 points per 100 possessions better than it was when he was off the court. Team officials said they considered that a promising indicator of Sarr’s potential, that even as a rookie, the defense was better when he was in the game.

The counter argument is that three of Washington’s other bigs for parts of last season were Jonas Valančiūnas, Marvin Bagley III and Tristan Vukčević; since none of them are considered plus defenders, then it’s no wonder that Washington’s defense was better when Sarr was on the court instead of them. Indeed, Richaun Holmes, who is only 6-foot-9 but is much stronger and more experienced than Sarr is, performed well in his minutes last season; the Wizards’ defense allowed 3.6 fewer points per 100 possessions when Holmes was on the court than when Holmes was off the court.

It’s not a surprise, perhaps, that Sarr’s defensive-rebounding rate ranked below-average compared to other NBA bigs. According to Cleaning the Glass’ figures, Sarr collected 15.9 percent of all potential defensive rebounds when he was on the floor, placing him in the 37th percentile among league bigs.

Some of those missed rebounds no doubt occurred because opponents could push Sarr off his spots. In the video sequence to follow, from the Wizards’ 129-125 victory in Detroit on March 13, Sarr fails to box out the Pistons’ Jalen Duren after a Pistons miss. Not only does Sarr appear not to sense Duren approaching, but Duren, who had at least a 25-pound weight advantage, dislodges Sarr from his position as the ball begins to descend.

But given how bad Washington’s perimeter defense was, Sarr often had to slide over to help and to contest shots. Those contests, in turn, often left him out of position to grab rebounds, as shown in this clip from the Wizards’ 122-103 loss to the New York Knicks on March 22. Here, Sarr successfully contests a 13-foot floater by Tyler Kolek. But the shot contest forced Sarr to leave the restricted area and gave Mitchell Robinson an easy path for a putback.

Wizards officials point to the number of shots that Sarr contested as a sign of his activity. The NBA’s player-tracking system revealed that Sarr defended a total of 583 shots within 6 feet of the rim last season, the second-highest figure in the league, trailing only Houston’s Alperen Şengün. And Sarr compiled those contests in only 67 games.

“He’s getting after it,” Dawkins said of Sarr. “He’s impacting the game. And then, what we love most about him is he does that at the rim, and then, he can go out and switch.”

Dawkins made that remark in response to a question about Sarr’s overall intensity. Dawkins said Sarr “played with a consistent energy.”

Two of the scouts disagree.

“His motor is up-and-down at times for whatever reason,” Scout C said.

Scout B said: “Defensively, yes, he’s got shot-blocking. But maybe it’s his youth, maybe it’s just who he is — he is not gritty. He has this looseness to his whole game. Sometimes, he’s aggressive — sometimes, he’s not. He was out of a position a lot defensively. His possession-by-possession attentiveness was not good. He whetted your appetite, and then, the next play might be where he was just kind of there and didn’t do much. His focus was questionable.”

Is he a five or a four?

One of the biggest questions about Sarr’s future remains unanswered: Will he be a center or a power forward long term?

Here’s another question: Does the distinction even matter anymore?

Holmgren, for instance, plays the four when teams alongside Isaiah Hartenstein but plays the five when Hartenstein is off the court. Mobley is a four when he plays simultaneously with Jarrett Allen but can slide over to center when Allen’s out of the game.

When asked whether Sarr is a four or a five, Wizards officials often respond that “he’s a basketball player.”

The distinction “doesn’t matter as much in today’s NBA,” Scout D said. “I think it’s going to be a lot about who the other pieces around him are. Are those threes and twos and fours good rebounders and physical? If you don’t have that around him, then I think you still are always going to have to have a girthy big, whether it’s at the four or the five, and he can play around them. But the shooting piece is going to be key for him — shooting, attacking off the dribble.

“If he’s not going to be as physical a big in order to operate in that four/five sort of role, then he’s going to have to get better at that. His shooting’s going to have to be more consistent. His ability to attack off the dribble is going to have to be a lot more consistent. He’s a tweener right now. If he was 265 or 300 pounds, we’d be talking about him differently in terms of a presence in the paint.”

Scout A said: “I don’t think it matters. He’s just a basketball player, and that’s what Chet Holmgren is. Whatever the situation may demand, he is likely to be able to deliver it eventually. Getting the experience of playing the volume of minutes that he did last year is an incredible luxury for them right now, because now they have information they can utilize to teach him the rights and wrongs that he experienced last year.”

There’s another school of thought, though: one that compares Sarr to his positional counterparts on opposing teams.

Sarr’s abilities to run the floor, shoot from distance and pass have the potential to be unique compared to many of the league’s centers; if he develops those skills to where they all become positives, that would give Washington an edge over many of Sarr’s counterparts on other teams.

Among fours, however, the abilities to run the floor, shoot from distance and pass are much more common. If Sarr stagnates in those areas and if he plays as a four, chances are that opposing teams’ power forwards at least would be Sarr’s equals in those areas.

So, perhaps the best outcome Washington can hope for is that Sarr solidifies himself as a center and adds strength and hones his skills to give his team advantages over opponents’ centers.

But given Sarr’s build, it seems more likely that the Wizards ultimately will seek to acquire a high-level center who can play alongside Sarr and excel in the areas where Sarr is deficient. This is something Wizards officials will have to figure out in the future.

Sarr’s future

It’s notable that none of the five talent evaluators The Athletic consulted for this article predicted that Sarr will develop into the best or second-best player on a contending team. In other words, don’t expect him to become an All-NBA or All-Star level player, though Scout E cautioned that it’s difficult to project 20-year-old, lanky centers who still have to grow into their bodies and add strength.

This should not be considered a surprise. Remember, the top of the 2024 draft was considered one of the weakest in recent memory. Through that lens, seeing Sarr become a solid every-night starter on a contending team should be considered a win for Washington. Scout E, for one, said that outcome is well within the realm of possibility.

Even Sarr’s upside as a rim protector will depend on how much stronger he becomes, according to Scout D.

“It’s going to come down to physically how he develops,” Scout D said. “It’s really hard to be an anchor defensively and someone who deters the offense from putting a lot of pressure on the rim if you’re not a physical presence. Listen, Rudy Gobert was way further behind at the same stage, and Rudy really put a lot of time and attention on his body, and he’s gotten stronger. They don’t have the same body type, so, obviously, his growth is going to be a little bit different, but it is something that can get better.

“He’s got to get heavier. He’s just got to get physically stronger. He weighs less than some of the bigger wings and forwards that are starting in the NBA.”

(Top photo of Alex Sarr and Victor Wembanyama: Scott Wachter / Imagn Images)