After giving up 23 runs in two games in Toronto, the New York Yankees face elimination when they host the Blue Jays for Game 3 of the ALDS on Tuesday. The New York offense was stymied by starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage, and the task won’t get any easier with Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber taking the hill for the Jays. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET, and the game will be shown nationally on FS1. 

If you’re looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

Bieber (4-2, 3.57 ERA) was limited to just 40 1/3 innings this year in his return from Tommy John surgery, but the former Cleveland ace has looked relatively sharp for Toronto. The veteran right-hander won two of his final three regular-season starts. He’ll be opposed by Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09), who easily had his best season as a Yankee. The left-hander allowed three runs over six innings of work against the Red Sox in the Wild Card round.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Bieber is set at over/under 5.5 strikeouts (Over -118, Under -112), while Rodon is set at 4.5 (Over -152, Under +116). The model rates Rodon’s Over 5 stars out of 5, as it projects him to notch six strikeouts.

Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is the +182 favorite to hit a home run on the FanDuel odds board. He’s followed by Giancarlo Stanton (+250), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+390), Trent Grisham (+420), Ben Rice (+430), George Springer (+450), Jazz Chisholm (+480), Daulton Varsho (+500) and Cody Bellinger (+500). 

Check out the model’s best bets for Yankees vs. Blue Jays Game 3 on Tuesday:

TORONTO BLUE JAYS at NEW YORK YANKEES | 10/7 | 8:08 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Blue Jays +132
Toronto wins in 43% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Run line
Pick: Blue Jays +1.5 (-166)
Toronto covers in 67% of simulations

Over/Under
Pick: Over 7.5 (-119)
The Over hits in 66.7% of simulations

Projected score: Yankees 4.9, Blue Jays 4.6