Momentum. It can be a wonderful thing. And with the playoff-bound BC Lions enjoying their final bye week before the final two games, they’ve also played their way into one heck of a Western Division race.
Goal number one was accomplished with Saturday’s 38-24 victory over the Calgary Stampeders. The squad is officially into the November dance for a fourth consecutive season. Just four weeks ago, you’d be forgiven if you didn’t think they could lock up their spot with two games to play. Four wins later, they have bigger goals in mind.
“It’s a step in the journey. It’s a natural result, it’s not our end goal,” said head coach Buck Pierce.
“I told the guys; this can’t be just a bye week where we go and completely remove ourselves from it. Take a couple of days to get yourself ready and mentally decompress. Take care of your bodies physically.”
“We don’t circle the playoffs on our calendar in the offseason. It’s just a natural step in the direction we want to get to.”
Buck Pierce
With the leaves falling and Thanksgiving weekend approaching north of the border, it serves as a reminder that the real season is approaching. As Nathan Rourke emerges as a legitimate candidate, if not the outright favourite for Most Outstanding Player and Most Outstanding Canadian, Keon Hatcher Sr. and Justin McInnis both enjoying career years and a resurgent defence that has been more disruptive with each win during this streak, the ingredients to make noise in November are certainly in play.
The next box to tick on the Grey Cup Playoffs list is to secure a home date at Save-On-Foods Field at Place next month. The Lions wrap up their regular season with a home date against Edmonton next Friday, October 17 and a potentially critical clash in Saskatchewan on Saturday, October 25.
Photo credit: Jaclyn McKee, BC Lions.
Momentum Creates Logjam: A Quick Look At (Some) Of The Scenarios
With a 9-7 record, the Lions currently sit second in the Western Division. That comes with a bit of a caveat, as the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Calgary Stampeders, both 8-7, are in action this week. The way the math currently plays out, this Lions team can finish anywhere from fourth to first in the West. It should be noted, neither Winnipeg nor Calgary has clinched a spot yet. As the 6-9 Edmonton Elks could mathematically overtake one of them, should they win their remaining three games and one of those other teams fails to win one of theirs. Unlikely, but very remotely possible.
But we keep our focus on the Lions’ fortunes. And for the sake of this argument, a closer look at the race between Winnipeg and Calgary. A fourth-place finish means a crossover to the Eastern Division and a trip to either Montreal or Hamilton on November 1. If the Lions win their final two games, they will be assured of a top-three finish and staying in the West come playoff time.
The very slim path to a first-place finish and a bye to the Western Final on November 8 involves the Lions winning their remaining two games, the Roughriders dropping their remaining three (home to Toronto this Friday, at Winnipeg, October 17 and home to BC, October 25) and the Stampeders WINNING their final three(at Hamilton this Friday, home to Toronto, October 18 and at Edmonton, October 24. Should all of that happen, all three would finish at 11-7.
In a three-way tie scenario, the deadlock is broken by the combined record against the other teams in the tiebreaker. The Lions would come on top based on a 3-2 combined record. Calgary would be second (2-2 combined) and Saskatchewan third (2-3 combined). This is all tossed in the trash if the Riders win or tie this week. They would clinch first place. The Lions have already dropped the season series to Saskatchewan by virtue of losses in weeks four and seven, meaning they would need a three-way tie with the Stamps to finish in top spot.
The Lions’ path to second in the division is a bit easier to dissect. By virtue of being swept in the season series against Winnipeg, they must finish with more points in the standings than their nemesis of recent years to avoid a road start in November. The Bombers visit Edmonton this Saturday before hosting Saskatchewan and Montreal in their final two. A pair of Lions wins and one loss OR a tie by Winnipeg in the next three weeks would give the Leos a home playoff date. By virtue of sweeping the Stampeders, they cannot be caught by Vernon Adams Jr. and company if they win their last two. Unless……
We conclude this math class by discussing the possibility of another three-way tie scenario. Lion fans won’t love it. In the event of a deadlock between BC, Calgary and Winnipeg (it could happen with a variety of different records, but the tiebreaker stands because the teams have all completed their games against each other), the Lions would travel to Cowtown for the Western Semi-Final.
The Stampeders, thanks to their clean three-game sweep of Winnipeg, would claim second after going 3-2 against the teams. The Lions’ sweep of Calgary puts them at 2-2, while Winnipeg would end up 2-3. This crazy scenario sends the Bombers to the East Division and a backdoor path back home for the 112th Grey Cup on November 16.
One more crazy multi-team tie scenario in which the Lions would end up in third: In the very unlikely event the West’s top four teams all end up 11-7, we would travel to second -place Saskatchewan on November 1, while the Stampeders end up in first place by virtue of their 5-2 record among the tied clubs. We can break down that one later, depending on how this week plays out.
We shouldn’t wrap this up without thanking BC Lions historian and CFL head stats man Steve Daniel for his assistance in breaking some of this down. Seriously, you should see all of his Excel tables. At any rate, the Lions are playoff-bound. The focus now lies on continuing their momentum into the second season.
“We’ve got a lot of work to do. I’m glad that we finally won going into a bye week, which is awesome, and we’ve got a week to reload and before we get to the real important football, some real big games coming up,” said Rourke.
“I think that we’re in a good position where we control our own destiny. Obviously, you just want to play another week. We’ve given ourselves a chance there, done something really good about getting this one done.”
The Lions could be at home, in Winnipeg, in Calgary, in Regina or out east in Montreal or Hamilton on the first day of November. Buckle up, it’s about to get crazier. Time to keep the momentum going.