FILE – A collection of gold coins is displayed at a shop in the St. Vincent Jewelry Center in the Jewelry District of Los Angeles, April 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, file) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
Gold prices will hit US$4,500 per ounce next year and stay there through 2027, according to CIBC Capital Markets. Analysts say worries about long-term inflation will push prices higher, following 2025’s big rally for the precious metal.
Gold futures (GC=F) soared above US$4,000 per ounce for the first time earlier this week. In her latest forecast, CIBC Capital Markets analyst Anita Soni sees bullion rising to US$4,500 in 2026 and 2027, then falling to US$4,250 in 2028, and US$4,000 in 2029.
“We continue to expect a positive macroeconomic setup for gold,” she wrote in a research note published Thursday. “We anticipate tariff policy uncertainty will continue, and we believe the U.S. economy has not yet reflected the negative impact of the tariffs implemented to date, and those to come, on consumer purchasing power.”
At the same time, Soni says the Federal Reserve gave in to U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for rate cuts sooner than she expected, issuing its first reduction since December 2024 last month. CIBC says market expectations now sit at 50 basis points of additional rate cuts before year-end.
“Fed chair Jerome Powell seemingly yielded to Trump’s will to cut rates sooner rather than later, despite sticky inflation,” she wrote.
“We believe that gold’s ascent earlier this year was tied to rate cuts, but the recent parabolic shift is the result of longer-term inflation and wealth preservation concerns, given that the monetary guardrails of the Fed are not specifically focused on longer-term inflation.”
The price of bullion has climbed about 50 per cent year-to-date, fuelled by a buffet of uncertainty that’s recently included a U.S. government shutdown and political upheaval in France.
Gold’s appeal to investors has also been boosted by Trump’s trade war, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, elevated central bank buying, and general unease about the trajectory of the global economy.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs upped its gold price forecast for December 2026 to US$4,900 per ounce, from US$4,300. On Friday, the top executive at Canadian metals streaming company Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM.TO)(WPM) called for prices to hit US$5,000 within a year, in an interview with Bloomberg News.
Gold stocks have also seen a blistering run this year, driving the mining-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index (^GSPTSE) to fresh records.
CIBC Capital Markets says its large-cap top picks in the sector remain Agnico Eagle (AEM.TO)(AEM), Kinross Gold (K.TO), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM.TO)(WPM), and Franco-Nevada (FNV.TO)(FNV).