Looking at the Week 7 odds, we are getting into slim pickings for obvious spots to attack early in the week. This is due to a combination of bye weeks reducing the volume of games available to bet; power rankings and model inputs having a larger data set, so pricing games becomes easier for the market; and the increasing number of critical injuries that leave player statuses unclear.
All that said, here are the few spots I do think are worth attacking. The early-week best bets are now 7-0 the last 3 weeks after hitting Steelers moneyline as a decent-sized favorite and Bears moneyline as a decent-sized underdog. We take it, we move on and we look to continue to prioritize the process and beat the closing line above all else.
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The Chargers could get some good news this week on the offensive line. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
(Perry Knotts via Getty Images)Los Angeles Rams (-3, 45) at Jacksonville Jaguars
While this game is listed as a Rams at Jaguars, it is being played in London. The home-field edge may lean a little bit toward Jacksonville because it has both shorter travel to England and experience playing in London, going 6-5 in 11 games there.
Having some familiarity with the travel, hotel, practice, media setup, locker room and playing conditions is a boost for the Jags. But this best bet is more about the total than the side advantage.
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The Rams have already announced superstar WR Puka Nacua is going to be out with an ankle injury. Per reports, he is going to miss some time but was lucky enough to avoid a long-term injury. That takes away a large offensive weapon who is relied upon for third-down conversions, stretching the field deep and red-zone offense.
These also are two stout run defenses. The Rams are Pro Football Focus’ No. 4 overall run defense. The Jaguars allow the eighth-fewest rushing yards and are fifth overall in run defense, according to analytics group SumerSports.
These offenses are predicated on strong running games putting the passing offense in positive game scripts, non-obvious passing downs and play-action situations. If the run defenses remain strong, the amount of down-and-distance third downs likely increases and so does the punt rate. We have already seen this total dip from 46 down to 45, but knowing key numbers, I want to get this at 45 and certainly above 44 in the under direction.
Best bet: Under 45 (-110)
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Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 48.5)
This is an early-week bet on understanding asymmetric injury risk. The Chargers and Colts are notably banged up, both sustaining cluster injuries. For the Chargers, it’s the offensive line; for the Colts, it’s the defensive backfield.
Chargers T Rashawn Slater (out for season) will remain out, G Mekhi Becton (illness, concussion) missed multiple games but returned last week, and T Joe Alt (ankle sprain) and T Trey Pipkins (knee sprain) could return this week. Even getting one of them back is a boost to the Chargers offense.
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The Colts defense is for sure going to be without Kenny Moore and likely Charvarius Ward. Without these players in coverage, Jacoby Brissett was able to lead the Cardinals to 27 points even while losing WR1 Marvin Harrison before halftime.
I think this line might climb to Chargers -2.5. It is not getting to -3, but -1.5 feels like a basement price to buy early in the week when good news has a better chance of emerging on the Chargers side. Right now the BetMGM line is -1.5 (-110) with a ML at -125. If we factor in the value of line movement respective to certain numbers, the move onto and off the 1 is worth just under 7 cents, so right now laying the points and playing the -1.5 is the better bet. If you see a -120 vs a -1.5 (-110), I would opt for the moneyline play instead. I always pay for the insurance when it is fairly priced or offered at a slight discount – and that’s a life principle, not just a betting one.
Bes bet: Chargers -1.5 (-110)
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 41)
If there are two teams to pick on either end of the spectrum – one team I think is still a little underrated by the market and another that is a bit overrated – I am a buyer on the Seahawks and a seller on the Texans.
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According to market-based power rankings, the Seattle Seahawks are the seventh-best team in the NFL, while the Houston Texans are 12th. I believe the Seahawks are knocking on the door of the top five with perhaps the most elite defense in the league (ranked seventh in market-rated defenses), and the Texans are outright below average and should be closer to 18th. If I make some manual adjustments to the market ratings, and then reduce the extremes of that because the Texans are coming off of a bye while the Seahawks are returning home from a crosscountry road trip, I think this line should be around -4.5/-5 for Seattle.
The early market signals agree. This opened at Seahawks -3 (-105) and BetMGM and moved to -3.5 (-105), which is a 22 cent move on value. The moneyline shifted from -149 to -185 (Note: It should be more than 22 cents because it’s more about implied probability, and a shift between these numbers is a 5% move while the spread moved 4.5%, so it’s very relative).
I still think Seahawks backers could be coming, and -3.5 (-105) won’t last. Give me the birds at home.
Best bet: Seahawks -3.5 (-105), good to -110