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The Indiana Fever have had an up-and-down 2025 WNBA season, which has been made more complicated by injuries to star guard Caitlin Clark. Clark missed time at the start of the year due to a quad injury and later suffered a groin injury. She returned to action a few weeks ago but re-injured her groin ahead of the All-Star Break. Clark has been ruled out of Indiana’s game against the Las Vegas Aces Thursday night, which will be the 12th game she’s missed this season. This is an important game for both sides as the Fever are 12-12 after losing consecutive games and the Aces are 12-11 and looking for a fourth straight win. Both teams would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today.
Are you interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props? If so, you need to see the picks that experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have logged for Thursday’s Aces vs. Fever game before making wagers at top sportsbooks.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com — a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women’s game. Wetzel, the site’s lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women’s hoops to turn the site’s prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).
Here are Wetzel and Barzilai’s top Aces-Fever picks for Thursday, July 24:
Fever +2Sophie Cunningham Under 4.5 rebounds (-110)Fever +2
I may be stubborn to take the Fever after losing two straight spread picks on them, but New York shot over 50% from deep in each of those games, and in each game the shooting variance was responsible for the gap between the spread and the final margin.
Even including those two games, the Fever have outperformed the spread by an average of 2.5 points per game in the 12 games Clark has missed, a measurable indication of how much sportsbooks overvalue Clark’s impact due to the hype that surrounds her. This game should be closer to a pick’em, so take advantage of the books giving us points on one side.
Sophie Cunningham Under 4.5 rebounds
In 20 games played this season, Cunningham has cleared 4.5 rebounds just seven times. In total, she’s averaging 4.1 board per game this year. The biggest reason we’re getting this line without any extra juice is that her minutes have been up lately without Clark in the lineup.
But even while playing more minutes with Clark sidelined, we’ve actually seen Cunningham’s rebounding rates drop. Because of that, Cunningham has gone Under this line in eight of her nine games that Clark has missed. Bet on her to stay below this line once again against the Aces.