Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

RBC Dominion Securities analyst Matthew McKellar sees demand conditions for Canadian forest products ranging between “unsupportive and tough” across most sub-sectors as the fiscal year nears an end.

However, he did point to recent supply rationalization in containerboard in particular gives providing “optimism about the trajectory into 2026.”

“We also see the potential for a meaningful supply response in lumber through year-end, although we prefer the relative stability of West Fraser to its smaller peers as we wait for a more powerful trend to become evident,” he said.

In a research report released Monday previewing third-quarter earnings season in the sector titled Pockets of opportunity, Mr. McKellar said he likes the “setup” for containerboard producers heading into 2026, while warning wood products and pulp markets remain “under pressure.”

“While demand for corrugated boxes seems to remain tepid, we remain encouraged by the supply-side story playing out in North American containerboard,” he said. “Significant capacity has been removed from the market through 2025 so far, and we expect a tighter market into 2026 to support price increases and margin expansion at an industry level, on top of continued progress on self-help opportunities playing out across each company (our pecking order: IP, CAS, SW).”

“Lumber and OSB markets will need to see supply action to restore pricing to healthier levels. While we think higher duties, new tariffs, and weak demand are likely to drive lumber capacity curtailments (primarily in Canada) in the near term, and expect SPF prices in particular could step significantly higher into the spring building season as this plays out (and potentially surprise to the upside), we prefer WFG and its strong balance sheet and low cost positioning ahead of its Canadian peers as we wait for a more meaningful supply response to become evident. We have assumed that OSB prices remain challenged into 2026, in part because we expect flattish housing activity year-over-year to continue to weigh on demand, although better supply discipline could potentially represent an opportunity for upside to our estimates.”

With his view of the trajectory of containerboard prices, Mr. McKellar upgraded Cascades Inc. (CAS-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.

“We think Cascades is gaining momentum into 2026 with progress in ramping up Bear Island, a tighter North American containerboard market following significant rationalization across the industry year-to-date, and a significant profitability improvement program underway,” he said. “We see the potential for attractive upside as these themes continue to play out (our 2026 EBITDA estimate is above consensus) and be recognized by investors, and are upgrading our rating.”

He raised his target for Cascades shares to $13 from $11, exceeding the $11.42 average on the Street, according to LSEG data.

“We believe the ramp up of Bear Island and its potential incremental contribution over the next two years could be underappreciated to some degree,” he added. “Management stated that Bear Island was ‘either breakeven or making a small profit’ in Q424 and Q125, and more significantly profitable in Q225 as it reached approximately 71 per cent of its ultimate production capability, although Cascades’ own disclosures from 2022 suggest that mill profitability would be roughly half of its full potential when 70 per cent ramped up. We also believe that a wider price-OCC spread and a stronger USD suggest the possibility of upside to the EBITDA targets Cascade presented in 2022.

“Profitability improvements targeted through YE26. Management is targeting $100-million of profitability improvements by the end of 2026 (a 20-per-cent improvement versus the 2024 baseline), and seems to have built in a buffer if certain initiatives deliver less improvement than hoped. We believe investors would be more comfortable assigning value here if management was more open about its plans to achieve these improvements (although we appreciate that some of the initiatives may have some sensitivity), but are encouraged by the apparent conservatism in management’s approach to the target.”

Mr. McKellar also made these other target price adjustments:

Acadian Timber Corp. (ADN-T, “sector perform”) to $18 from $19. Average: $19.50.Canfor Corp. (CFP-T, “outperform”) to $16 from $17. Average: $15.83.Canfor Pulp Products Inc. (CFX-T, “sector perform”) to 50 cents from 70 cents. Average: 83 cents.Interfor Corp. (IFP-T, “outperform”) to $14 from $17. Average: $14.67.West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG-N/WFG-T, “outperform”) to US$92 from US$97. Average: US$87.33.

“Favourite names: In Canada, we like CAS, WFG and DBM; in the U.S., we like IP, SW and WY,“ he said.

“RBC vs. consensus: We are below Q325 consensus EBITDA on most wood products names (e.g., CFP, IFP, LPX, PCH, WEF, WFG, WY) and pulp names (CFX, MERC), although we expect the street had been looking for more favourable pricing in the quarter and think consensus numbers will evolve into reporting season. With pricing for several commodities (e.g., pulp, lumber) challenged in Q3, we expect inventory write-downs that would be outside of our forecasts to result in some noise in results. The finalization of AR6 CV and AD rates will also result in non-cash expenses for Canadian lumber producers that are not embedded in our EBITDA forecasts. Of note, some consensus figures for IP do not seem to reflect GCF as discontinued ops, which frustrates comparisons to our estimates.”

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National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine expects Canadian life insurance companies to report “strong” third-quarter financial results, pointing to gains in their Wealth businesses from “surging” major equity indexes.

“The group’s average 4.5-per-cent rise over the past month (5.5 per cent over the past three months), which outperformed the market, is reflective of optimism ahead of this earnings season,” he said in a client report. “Despite this run, Lifeco stocks are trading at a 35-per-cent discount to the S&P/TSX compared to the 10-year average of 34 per cent.

“Ahead of results, our top pick is MFC. We note that during periods of exceptionally strong market performance (i.e., 5-per-cent-plus quarterly move in the S&P500 avg.), it has subsequently outperformed quarterly EPS forecasts by 4 per cent in 16 previous instances (over the last 10 years). We are also looking for a ‘mini relief rally’ as Q3/25 should prove that Q2/25’s negative credit and mortality issues truly were unusual items. Separately, we are introducing our 2027E EPS. On average, we are forecasting 9-per-cent EPS growth, which is broadly in line with each company’s targeted growth rate.”

With Wealth segments accounting for approximately 35 per cent of their total earnings, Mr. Dechaine raised his quarterly earnings per share share forecast by 2.5 per cent due to “actual equity market performance during the quarter (e.g., major indices were up 8-13 per cent on a quarterly average basis) compared to our base case estimate (up 2 per cent a quarter).”

“We have also factored in more buyback activity in Q3/25 than previously forecasted for GWO, IAG and SLF,” he added. “Separately, we are introducing our 2027E EPS. On average, we are forecasting 9-per-cent EPS growth, which is broadly in line with each company’s targeted growth rate. Key assumptions behind our 2027E forecasts are a 7-per-cent increase in core insurance results, 8-per-cent growth in asset management income and buyback activity at all four lifeco.”

With those forecast updates, Mr. Dechaine raised his target prices for stocks in the sector by an average of 10 per cent. His changes are:

* Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-T, “sector perform”) to $58 from $52. The average target on the Street is $59.36.

Analyst: “1) Expecting credit performance to normalize; 2) Flows at Empower/Wealth expected to improve; 3) Buyback commitment almost completed.”

* IA Financial Corp. Inc. (IAG-T, “sector perform”) to $162 from $146. Average: $159.

Analyst: “1) Don’t expect another quarter of exceptional insurance experience; 2) Equity market backdrop a driver of our positive EPS revisions; 3) U.S. warranty sales could decline.”

* Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T, “outperform”) to $52 from $47. Average: $48.93.

Analyst: “1) Q2/25 ‘one-off’ headwinds expected to fade; 2) Asia segment on track; Wealth segment facing a headwind; 3) As promised, buybacks continued despite Comvest acquisition.”

* Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF-T, “sector perform”) to $94 from $87. Average: $90.77.

Analyst: “1) U.S. Dental still expected to weigh on earnings; 2) MFS to benefit from market backdrop + seasonality; 3) SLF has been very active with buybacks.”

For Sagicor Financial Co. Inc. (SFC-T), he kept a $11 target for shares, which exceeds the $10.63 average, as well as his “outperform” rating, noting: “1) RoE targets could be achieved sooner rather than later; 2) U.S. annuity production; 3) Caribbean segment revival.”

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Seeing a “more balanced” risk-reward proposition after a period of strong share price appreciation, Citi analyst Paul Lejuez lowered his rating for Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-N, GIL-T) to “neutral” from “buy” despite continuing to expect in-line quarterly results.

“GIL is up 30 per cent year-to-date and 20 per cent since the HBI [HanesBrands Inc.] deal came to fruition,” he said. “We believe the market is now pricing in a successful close to the deal, seamless integration, and synergies that are at least as much as what management indicated ($200-million). If we assume a combined company EBIT margin of 21.6 per cent in F28, essentially closing the F25 margin gap between HBI (13.8 per cent) and GIL (21.8 per cent), driven entirely by $200-milion in synergies (by F28), this implies an updated TP $63 (based on our pro-forma numbers and DCF).

“While this still implies some upside versus current levels, we view the risk/reward as more balanced, justifying a Neutral rating. The upside risk is that GIL is able to find far more synergies than what the market prices is, with downside risk that the integration doesn’t go as smoothly as hoped (or business slows).”

In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Lejuez lowered his third-quarter earnings per share estimate by 1 US cent to 99 US cents, matching the Street’s expectation, due to lower Hosiery an Underwear sales (down 16 per cent year-over-year versus 10 per cent previously). His full-year EPS forecast is now of US$3.46, which is a penny below the consensus but in line with the company’s guidance of US$3.40-$3.56, which he predicts may be lowered slightly.

“We believe the underwear business remains relatively weak,” he said.

“GIL is well-positioned in this tariff environment as the low-cost provider of printwear/basics, with mostly Honduras based manufacturing operations. GIL continues to have conversations with brands interested in near-shoring their manufacturing. We don’t expect management to share anything new on the HBI merger (even though that is the most important topic). We expect management to narrow their full year guidance as softness persists in the underwear category. Positioning screens as crowded on the long side heading into the print, so we don’t expect much upside from the in-line results and likely narrowing of guidance.”

Mr. Lejuez’s target for Gildan shares rose by US$3 to US$63 due to his assumptions around the HBI deal. The current average on the Street is US$70.88.

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Seeing “a more muted growth outlook and limited catalysts in the medium term,” Scotia Capital analyst Robert Hope downgraded Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI-T) to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” previously.

“Through the balance of 2025 and 2026 we expect Marketing conditions will remain challenging and as such we move down our estimates,” he said.” A softer crude oil pricing environment could make sanctioning projects more challenging. As such, we remove some unsecured growth from our forecasts that brings down our 2027 estimates. The outlook for the South Texas Gateway Terminal (STGT) terminal has improved, and we believe this is reflected in the shares.”

His target fell to $25 from $27 to reflect his lower estimates. The average is $26.29.

Mr. Hope’s revision came in a client report previewing quarterly earnings season for his utility and energy infrastructure coverage universe, which included several other estimate and target price revisions.

“Overall, our estimates for Q3 are modestly below consensus on the majority of names as moderating marketing margins and lower generation should be headwinds,” he said. “We are well below consensus for TA-T (14 per cent under), as we expect weaker generation and captured pricing will weigh on EBITDA. While TA-T’s hedge book offers some protection, we believe the tailwinds seen in Q2 are unlikely to repeat. We are also well below consensus for NPI-T (7 per cent under), reflecting another soft generation quarter. That said, for both these names we expect investors will look through the weak numbers and focus on data center upside for TA-T and construction progress for NPI-T. After two very strong quarters we expect EMA-Twill have a softer Q3 as costs associated with the cyber incident and lower gas distribution income will be a headwind. We expect another solid quarter from H-T as the very warm July and August should be a strong tailwind.”

“We prefer the power names followed by the gas-levered pipeline/midstream names and then the utility group. Our overall favourite names are ALA-T, BIP-N, CPX-T, PPL-T, and TA-T.”

His other target changes are:

Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T, “sector outperform”) to $80 from $75. Average: $70.65.Enbridge Inc. (ENB-T, “sector perform”) to $69 from $65. Average: $67.88.South Bow Corp. (SOBO-N/SOBO-T, “sector perform”) to US$28 from US$27. Average: US$25.78.TransAlta Ltd. (TA-T, “sector outperform”) to $27 from $23. Average: $20.32.TC Energy Corp. (TRP-T, “sector outperform”) to $80 from $77. Average: $74.19.Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. (TWM-T, “sector perform”) to $7 from $6. Average: $6.20.

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National Bank Financial analyst Rabi Nizami warns volatility around shares of Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ-T) is “likely to remain elevated” following the recent announcement of a proposed 10-per-cent U.S. government equity stake, but he acknowledges “recent precedents which suggest that similar policy-driven re-ratings can persist.”

“TMQ shares spiked on the news and continue to be volatile (up 211 per cent initially, up 411 per cent during the week, now 209 per cent above pre-announcement levels) with record volumes reflecting generalist interest and mainstream media attention … U.S. government entries into MP Materials (up 169 per cent; 100 days since announcement), Intel (up 49 per cent; 56 days) and Lithium Americas (up 121 per cent; 24 days) have all retained or expanded re-ratings over multiple weeks,” said Mr. Nizami.

“As initial excitement abates, we see room for further news flow that could retain or reignite momentum for TMQ if progress can be demonstrated on next steps toward deal close, Federal/State land conveyance, Fast-41, road construction and renewed exploration efforts.”

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The analyst now sees Vancouver-based Trilogy “well positioned to fund accretive work programs that could help crystallize the premium with pro forma cash of US$76-million (US$23-million at Q3 + US$17.8-million government equity + US$25-million ATM + US$11-million ITM exercisable options), implying up to US$150-million capital deployable on a 100-per-cebt ownership basis alongside JV partner South32.”

“Beyond permitting, we highlight significant district-scale exploration potential across UKMP: Arctic/Bornite anchor our valuation but are not the only known deposits along the Ambler road corridor, which includes several historical high-grade VMS resources and many critical mineral drill targets,” he said.

Mr. Nizami maintained his “sector perform” recommendation for Trilogy shares with a $8 target, rising from $3.25 previously and exceeding the $5.20 average on the Street.

“We assume start of mine construction accelerated to 2028 (was 2032), plus exploration upside for an overall 47-per-cent NAVPS uplift,” he said. “Although TMQ’s current $1.6-billion market cap sits well above unencumbered technical report NPVs, the U.S. government’s direct involvement narrative and recent precedents justify a higher trading range near term.”

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In a research report previewing earnings season in her coverage universe, CIBC World Markets analyst Krista Friesen made a series of target price adjustments, including:

AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T, “outperformer”) to $122 from $115. The average is $112.77.Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T, “outperformer”) to $71 from $62. Average: $60.78.Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD-T, “outperformer”) to $270 from $257. Average: $263.93.Finning International Inc. (FTT-T, “outperformer”) to $77 from $68. Average: $70.89.Stantec Inc. (STN-T, “outperformer”) to $175 from $168. Average: $163.73.Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T, “neutral”) to $168 from $148. Average: $157.22.WSP Global Inc. (WSP-T, “outperformer”) to $349 from $318. Average: $315.43.

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In other analyst actions:

* CIBC’s Mark Jarvi moved his targets for Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T) to $85 from $72 and TransAlta Corp. (TA-T) to $26 from $20 with “outperformer” ratings for both. The averages are $67.67 and $20.32, respectively.

* CIBC’s Todd Coupland raised his Celestica Inc. (CLS-N/CLS-T) target to US$315 from US$245 with an “outperformer” rating. The average is US$242.12.

* In a report previewing earnings season for Canada’s telecommunications industry titled Lackluster Financials but Wireless Environment Continues to Improve, Scotia’s Maher Yaghi raised his targets for these stocks: Cogeco Communications Inc. (CCA-T) to $75.50 from $75, Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T) to $43.50 from $43.25 and Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) to $55.75 from $54.25 with “sector perform” ratings for all.

“We continue to stand by our view, which we published in a report in early June, that the Canadian wireless market is on the mend. However, improvement to ARPUs [average revenue per users] and financials will take time to show given consumer tendencies to not wanting to re-negotiate their contracts if it means paying higher rack prices. However, as a first step, we expect Q3 to likely be the low point when it comes to industry average ARPU declines and expect overall ARPU growth to return to break even in 2H26. BCE and Rogers are likely the two stocks that could see the most multiple expansion on the back of an improved wireless outlook. We have a SO on BCE while we await to see how leverage at Rogers will evolve as they take on a larger position in MLSE. In terms of subscriber results, we are below consensus on wireless loading for BCE but above consensus for Rogers. On financials we are below consensus on TELUS due to a lower assumed TIXT contribution. Our targets have been slightly adjusted for a few names due to changes to assumed future liabilities and costs of debt,” said Mr. Yaghi.

* Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay reduced his Colabor Group Inc. (GCL-T) target to 50 cents from $1.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $1.81.

“Leverage has surged and fixing the balance sheet is a priority identified by new CEO Kelly Shipway and her team. With forbearance agreements pointing to a $15-million equity raise, heavy dilution is around the corner. This contributes to our target moving sharply lower, although risk-tolerant investors should take notice of the potential return to our target. While investor attention is understandably on the balance sheet situation, it appears that operations are not broken and synergies from Alimplus are attractive,” he said.

* CIBC’s Erin Kyle increased her targets for Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI-Q/CIGI-T) to US$179 from US$175 with an “outperformer” rating and Information Services Corp. (ISC-T) to $37 from $34 with a “neutral” rating. The averages are US$178.57 and $35.65, respectively.

* Seeing “housing recovery in motion with robust 2026 refi activity,” Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho bumped his Dominion Lending Centres Inc. (DLCG-T) target to $11.25 from $10.75 with a “buy” rating ahead of the release of its quarterly report on Nov. 6. The average target is $11.31.

“Our 3Q and 2025 estimates are largely unchanged but we modestly raised our 2026 and 2027 FMV given greater confidence in a housing recovery in 2026 and DLC’s C$100-billion FMV target in 2027,” he said. “While we expect Heartwood start-up losses in 3Q, we anticipate a decent ramp-up in originations in 2026/27, and Heartwood could be a meaningful contributor. After rolling our valuation forward, we raised our target.”

“Our investment thesis is based on: (1) FMV accelerating in 2025/26, benefiting from the refi cycle, lower rates and friendlier mortgage rules; (2) EBITDA margin expanding with significant torque when mortgage volumes return; (3) further upside in Newton penetration; and (4) near-term M&A possibility (approximately 1 times leverage).”

* In a report previewing earnings for oilfield services providers, National Bank’s Dan Payne raised his Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T) target to $17.50 from $14.50 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $18.

“Overall, while little momentum exists in the space, unique and tactical opportunities to gain exposure to a depth of value will be offered through this phase of the cycle (with notable tangible opportunities for each to capitalize upon), and towards which we continue to believe the risk profile remains very well insulated by the strategic sustainability (entrenched focus on FCF generation & return of capital), pristine balance sheets (relative to prior cycles) and discounted valuation paradigm,“ he said. ”Residually, and as previously suggested, if a re-rate does not occur, we continue to wonder whether the Canadian peer group will be the subject of increasing M&A as a means for global operators to backfill earnings with the more resilient and discounted domestic opportunity. For now, we remain in idle for the group, and maintain almost a universal Sector Perform rating on the group (CEU the outlier), while our pecking order is reshuffled as CEU, PD, EFX, TCW and PSI, based on a ranking of YTD equity & valuation performance and relative earnings & FCF momentum(see within), while we believe that the dispersion within this group remains very low (dealer’s choice remains).”

“We have previously suggested that the market lacks visibility, but it is becoming increasingly evident that the only thing that is certain is that the cadence of upstream spending is structurally entrenched and activity isn’t going meaningfully higher any time soon (rig counts continue to trough; Dallas Fed Survey, summarized within, highlighting pessimism & uncertainty). Optimistically, the OFS peers have continued to harvest returns and resilience of earnings (with very limited volatility) on a sustainable basis, as a reflection of the strength of the businesses in support of long-term value. To that end, while we don’t believe the equities are going anywhere fast (noting a recent re-rate in a couple of names), we do believe that the current phase of the cycle offers opportunity to tactically accumulate best in class for that long-term value proposition. With that, we have tweaked (largely unchanged) our activity forecast (which remains within the range of the five-year average), which sees relatively minor changes to our estimates and target price valuations, again as a reflection of the underlying resilience. From a rating perspective, we remain largely in idle, with neutral Sector Perform ratings almost universal across the group (CEU remains the outlier).“

* After increasing their gold and silver price forecasts for both the near and long terms, Stifel analysts upgraded Iamgold Corp. (IMG-T) and Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. (WDO-T) to “buy” from “hold” with targets of $28 for both, rising from $11 and $20.50 respectively. The averages are $18.14 and $25.05, respectively.

“Our constructive outlook continues to be driven by three key factors: (1) Central Bank buying and supportive ETF flows reflecting increased investment demand for safe-haven assets, (2) asset diversification reflecting gold as an increasingly strategic asset in institutional and retail portfolio allocation and (3) an increased geopolitical risk premium due to market volatility and fragmentation in regional economic and financial markets as a more permanent fixture in prices. Our preferred precious metals picks are: Agnico Eagle, Aya Gold & Silver, Barrick, DPM, K92, Kinross, Orla, Osisko Development, Southern Cross,” they said.

* TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini raised his Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T) target to $49 from $46 with a “buy” rating. The average is $44.52.

“QBR.B shares have been strong YTD, which has some observers wondering if it is time to take profits. We do not believe so, with an acceleration in wireless revenue/EBITDA growth over the NTM [next 12 months] being likely to drive more of an upward re-rating,” he said.