Keith Richards, president and chief portfolio manager at ValueTrend Wealth Management, shares his outlook on Technical Analysis.
Keith Richards, President and Chief Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Management
Focus: Technical Analysis
Top picks: iShares MSCI Japan ETF, Alcoa, Cash
MARKET OUTLOOK:
I have been in the investment business since 1990 and was investing before that non-professionally for a few years. Let’s call it 40 plus years of trading markets.
In those 40 years, I witnessed, and learned from, numerous pullbacks. Plus, two major bubbles that lead into major 50 per cent plus meltdowns (2001 and 2008).
I believe we are in a bubble right now.
Factors such as the price-to-earnings ratio, options activity seen via the VIX and put call ratio, and others suggest entry into the danger zone for North American markets.
Further, the SPX is back to the top of a very long termed (100+ years) trend channel. That trendline will likely prove to be a point of eventual downward regression for the market.
Finally, for what its worth, this market has all the characteristics of a ‘Wave 5′ employee withholding tax market phase. A Wave 5 classic pattern is characterized by narrow breadth (AI), complacency (VIX, put-call) and very tight swings within a rapidly rising (parabolic) trend.
Having said all of this, the indicators I follow, while suggesting market complacency, are not yet deep enough to suggest that now is the time for the bubble popping. We also have a dovish Fed.
I wrote a blog last week illustrating the absolute relationship between Fed easing and market trends. We are in an easing cycle, suggesting more upside – until the music (easing) stops!
My two cents: We’re in a bubble. But it isn’t over until the fat lady sings.
TOP PICKS:
Keith Richards’ Top Picks: iShares MSCI Japan ETF, Alcoa & Cash Keith Richards, president and chief portfolio manager at ValueTrend Wealth Management, shares his top stock picks to watch in the market.
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ NYSEARCA) – We have been legging into this stock over the summer.
Alcoa (AA NYSE) – We are commodity bulls. We began buying this earlier this year, continuing to leg in.
Cash (CASH NASD) – We are still around 25 per cent cash in our Equity Platform. Our “bear-o-meter” has been signaling risk for the past two months.
DISCLOSUREPERSONALFAMILYPORTFOLIO/FUNDEWJ NYSEARCAYNYAA NYSEYNYCASH NASDYNY
PAST PICKS: AUGUST 27,2025
Keith Richards’ Past Picks: Northwest Healthcare REIT, Tourmaline Oil & Weatherford Keith Richards, president and chief portfolio manager at ValueTrend Wealth Management, discusses his past stock picks and how they’re doing in the market today.
Northwest Healthcare REIT (NWH-U TSX)
Then: $4.95
Now: $5.02
Return: 1%
Total Return: 3%
Tourmaline Oil (TOU TSX)
Then: $58.00
Now: $60.39
Return: 4%
Total Return: 5%
Weatherford (WFRD NASD)
Then: US$63.68
Now: US$63.85
Return: 0.26%
Total Return: 0.26%
Total Return Average: 3%
DISCLOSUREPERSONALFAMILYPORTFOLIO/FUNDNWH-U TSXYNYTOU TSXYNYWFRD NASDYNY