Thirty years after Quebec’s last sovereignty vote, most people in the province say they don’t want to go through another one.
A new Léger-Journal de Montréal poll shows that if a referendum were held today, about two-thirds of Quebecers would vote against independence. Only about one in three would say ‘yes’.
The survey also found that fewer than 25 per cent of respondents want another referendum before 2030, even though the Parti Québécois (PQ) has made that one of its main promises.
Pollster Jean-Marc Léger says the PQ’s recent rise in popularity has more to do with voter frustration than with a push for sovereignty.
According to the poll, most Quebecers are more worried about everyday issues like housing costs, groceries and inflation than about debates over Quebec’s future in Canada.
Even some PQ supporters say the idea of another referendum makes them uneasy.
The poll also found that most respondents don’t believe sovereignty would help improve health care, education or the economy. The only clear benefit people mentioned was better protection for the French language.
Many also questioned whether Quebec could afford to become its own country.
Fewer people identify mainly as Quebecers than they did three decades ago. U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of a 51st state have also made an impact on the sense of belonging to Canada. In the mid-1990s, about 65 per cent said they saw themselves that way. Today, that number is closer to 40 per cent.
Léger says it’s too early to say whether support for independence could grow again. Before the 1995 referendum, backing for sovereignty also sat around 35 per cent, then rose sharply during the campaign.
This poll was conducted online – September 26 to 28 – among 1,037 Quebecers 18 and over.
In comparison, a sample size of a poll like this would have a margin of error plus or minus 3.04% 19 times out of 20.