Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Utilities
CIBC analyst Mark Jarvi previewed earnings for the domestic utilities,
“With Q3 results, we expect Regulated Utilities to meet or exceed consensus given generally solid loads and new rates. We expect generally softer results for Power companies given less favourable generation trends in key regions and muted realized pricing trends for most. While Q3 results likely favour Utilities, we still like the Power names more from an investment landscape given some better momentum (have to look through weaker Q3), plus more growth and valuation upside. That said, markets and credit spreads (key metric we track for risk-on/off sentiment) have been more volatile—as such, investors should still hold some regulated exposure for a defensive hedge (ACO.X and FTS are preferred names). In the Alberta power names, we prefer CPX over the medium term (though TA might have a more tangible data centre update in the next few weeks). We’ve made modest price target increases for most names (no rating changes) … Once again, we are above consensus for H (5 per cent), which should benefit from strong load demand in Ontario. Load impacts for other utilities should not drive material variances with consensus. FTS and EMA should provide updated five-year (2026-2030) capex/rate base projections (we don’t expect updated EPS guidance for EMA). FTS should also announce an annual dividend increase (we assume 4%) and extend its 4-6-per-cent annual dividend growth guidance through 2030”
Metals
Citi commodity strategists led by Maximilian Layton are bullish on copper and aluminum,
“We are medium-term bullish copper and aluminium, to $12k/t (15-per-cent upside) over the next 6-12 months, and to $3,500/t by 2027 (25-per-cent upside), respectively. We suggest consumers and investors look for opportunities to build bullish/insurance/hedging exposure to both metals to capture/avoid this anticipated upside. Both metals have bullish fundamental exposure to structural energy-transition and AI trends, and are leveraged to a cyclical growth rebound and US debasement concerns. During 2026, dovish Fed prospects (especially under new leadership by mid-2026), related lower U.S. real interest rates, and a pickup in U.S. and global growth expectations are likely to be supportive of a copper and aluminium bull market. We could plausibly see a rerun of the Jan-2023 and Jan-Apr 2024 copper and aluminium bull markets any time in the next six months, where investors put on a FOMO global recovery trade in copper and aluminium, and they rally sharply”
Acquisition risk
Scotiabank analyst Kevin Fisk sees a risk that the Cenovus acquisition of MEG Energy might not happen,
“OUR TAKE: Potential Negative. The special meeting to vote on CVE’s proposed acquisition of MEG has been postponed until October 30. Currently, 63 per cent of the MEG shares represented by proxy or expected to vote in person have approved the transaction, but the transaction requires approval by at least 66.67 per cent of the voted shares. In our view, there is a risk that the transaction will not be approved. As we outlined in our noted titled Off Restriction: Maximizing Christina Lake’s Potential, we view the proposed transaction as positive for CVE and MEG shareholders and would expect a negative share price reaction if the transaction does not proceed. CVE could increase its offer for MEG if it were willing to pay for more of MEG’s 2P value. However, this may not be well received by the market given the reduced accretion and CVE’s messaging that this is its final offer. If the offer is unsuccessful, it’s possible that SCR would renew its attempt to acquire MEG, which could provide support for MEG’s share price”
Bluesky post of the day
Retail traders have pulled more than $50 million from commodity ETFs through 11am today as the price of gold tumbles, per JPMorgan
sherwood.news/markets/gold… via @matthewsphillips.bsky.social
— Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social) October 21, 2025 at 11:58 AMDiversion
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