Every year, tapping into my extensive, peerless network of front office wags, team executives, workout guys and in-the-know agents, I provide expert, high success-rate predictions for the upcoming NBA season, in what has come to be known, globally, as 24 Questions. It is, as certain as Nostradamus, the absolute go-to read to impress your friends and future paramours about your knowledge of the league, and ability to read the tea leaves with uncanny accuracy.
Who do you think you are? I am!
First, though, fairness requires that I go back — what they call “self-scouting” in sports — and see how incredibly prescient I was last season, when I asked and answered the 24 questions posed to me going into the 2024-25 season.
Among the many questions answered accurately last year:
• Can the Knicks beat Boston in the East? (Yes!)
• Who would be the best French lottery pick? (Zaccharie Risacher!)
• Who’s moved by the trade deadline? (Jonas Valančiūnas!)
I am Legend.
But, David, you also gave answers to these questions:
• So, Risacher gets Rookie of the Year? (No, Reed Sheppard!)
• New coach who’ll have the greatest impact? (Mike Budenholzer!)
• Who’ll win it all this season? (The Mavericks!)
Shut up.
At any rate, I have been renewed for another season of wildly successful guessing! Let’s roll!
1. Can the Thunder repeat?
Hell, yes! Oklahoma City is supremely built to run it back, with a 27-year-old finals MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, wildly talented and versatile co-chairs of the juggernaut in Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren and the best supporting cast this side of “Succession.” (I originally typed “Hill Street Blues,” before realizing that almost no one reading this has the slightest idea of who Daniel J. Travanti was, much less Veronica Hamel.) Only injuries can slow the Thunder this year and they’re no more impervious to that than any other defending champion. But if OKC stays relatively healthy, its swarming defense can take it right back to playing in June.
1a. Will they?
See below.
2. OK, how is the NBA’s Aspiration-Kawhi Leonard investigation going to impact the Clippers this season?
Honestly, I don’t think all that much, at least not during the regular season. Kawhi barely talks when everything’s going great. The other Clippers players and the coaches have nothing to do with it one way or another, so they won’t have much to add, other than “How’s Kawhi holding up?” questions, which will be dismissed with quickness. And for all the concern about how next February’s All-Star Game in L.A., with the Clippers serving as the weekend’s host at their Intuit Dome, might be affected if the investigation is still ongoing, the reality is that the owner of the host team is rarely centered publicly during All-Star. It’s not as if Steve Ballmer’s going to have daily press conferences. The only time you see the owner of the host team during the weekend is when he or she “hands off” the game to the owner of the team in the next city that will host All-Star, and that’s almost always an in-house, between-quarters deal that isn’t seen on national TV.
It may be a little sticky if Leonard becomes an All-Star, and has to do media on All-Star Saturday. But, again, Kawhi isn’t exactly pouring out his soul during the best of times. Now, if the Clips make a deep playoff run, or get to the Finals, which could be happening just as the investigation is nearing its conclusion? There might be some angsty moments. But in the end, the Clips will circle the wagons, punch out a top-four seed in the West, and then … well, it’s always about whether Kawhi can get to April and May healthy, right?
3. Will Giannis still be in Milwaukee this time next year?
Yes.
But.
I can’t shake the Spurs.
All the talk today is about Antetokounmpo winding up in New York. The Knicks don’t have the draft picks Milwaukee will have to demand, along with the multiple young players, to get him. And, if Giannis insists he be moved, there is zero incentive for the Bucks to keep him in the Eastern Conference, where they’d have to see him multiple times a year. If they had to move him following a trade request next summer, it would almost certainly be to a team out West.
The Spurs are out West.
Oklahoma City is the only other team that has the kind of inventory San Antonio could put together for the Greek Freak. And Sam Presti certainly has proven he isn’t afraid to make a big deal. But it’s hard to envision the Thunder blowing up its young, championship team, even for Antetokounmpo. Not saying it couldn’t happen; OKC has so many picks and could offer such a compelling combo of non-SGA/Jalen Williams talent, along with any combination of its eight first-rounders it still controls between now and 2028. But, again, the Thunder just went 68-14, and won it all. That group has earned the right to compete for a few more pelts together.
Meanwhile, the Spurs are still in roster building mode around Victor Wembanyama. And they have a surplus at point guard (De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper), and on the wings (Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, Carter Bryant, Julian Champagnie). Guard Devin Vassell is just 25. The Spurs have first-round swaps between now and 2031 with Atlanta, Boston and Sacramento, along with the Hawks’ 2027 first free and clear. If you’re the Bucks, able to pick from that smorgasbord, well, you’d have to think seriously about that.
But … what’s to keep the Bucks from having a long run this season, in a defanged East? Giannis and Myles Turner are givens; if the Bucks get anything approaching replacement player value out of its core (Kyle Kuzma, Cole Anthony, Bobby Portis, Gary Trent, Jr. and Kevin Porter, Jr. in particular), why couldn’t Milwaukee be a tough postseason out? And, thus, keep Giannis’ wanderlust to a minimum?
I could be wrong. But Giannis is pretty loyal, and he knows that the Bucks have, since 2015, done just about everything possible to build a contending team around him. Obviously, every move hasn’t worked, but you can’t say Milwaukee hasn’t pulled every lever, and taken incredible financial hits, to keep its superstar happy. Somewhere, in GiannisWorld, that matters.
I do. Great players have pride. They know their standards, and when they fall short, much more acutely than those of us who watch them. Luka fell short last season — understandable in part, given the jarring in-season trade to L.A., but nonetheless factual. I see Dončić being top three in MVP voting this season, and taking the Lakers on a nice ride. Not back to the finals, but a good long way. I can’t get there with L.A. as a championship-level team, in part, because I’m not yet sold on a full-blown Deandre Ayton renaissance, and the West remains a gantlet. But I could see Luka getting even closer to a triple-double average for the season than his career norms in ’25-26.
5. Does Houston need to make a move after Fred VanVleet’s ACL injury?
All due respect, it’s hard to think the Rockets are good with some combo of Amen Thompson, Aaron Holiday and Sheppard handling the rock this season, a year where Houston is all-in to make a title run. Yes, Sheppard played it in his one season at Kentucky, but Houston didn’t take him third overall last year to be a full-time floor general. FVV’s injury really leaves the Rockets small and defensively suspect at that position. But, Houston doesn’t have a lot of wiggle room to make deals, even though it’s (barely) under the first luxury tax apron. The Rockets have a $3.5 million traded player exception from the Cam Whitmore trade with the Wizards, but there aren’t a lot of difference-making free agent point guards available out there at that price. (And, Russell Westbrook’s now off the board.)
Would Houston think — it’s radical, I know — of trading VanVleet for another point guard? And what team out there would take on VanVleet’s new contract (two years, $50 million), knowing he’s going to miss most, if not all, the first year of the deal, and has an almost-now-certain-to-be-exercised player option at $25 million for 2026-27? (And, because his contract is technically a one-year deal with a player option, FVV is viewed as a one-year Bird Rights player, which gives him a de facto no trade clause this season.)
The Wizards have a solid, veteran guard in 34-year-old C.J. McCollum, who certainly isn’t part of their future. But Washington’s play is to get McCollum’s expiring money ($30,6 million) off its books after this season, one way or another, not carry new salary into 2027. New Orleans does have Dejounte Murray, 29, in front of first-round pick Jeremiah Fears — but Murray is coming off his own major injury, and has $94.28 million(!), including a player option for 2027-28, left on his contract. Houston could, also, apply for an injured player exception, which would create a $12.5 million space into which the Rockets could trade for a player at that salary for draft picks. But the Rockets couldn’t use the exception to sign a free agent — because, despite being under the aprons, Houston is still hard-capped at its current team salary.
If the Rockets, then, are going to make a play for a guard, they’d have to trade one of their few vets that wasn’t signed or re-signed this summer. (Kevin Durant came to Houston via trade, and could be dealt — but obviously, that’s not a possibility.) The one realistic target a lot of teams would want is fourth-year forward Tari Eason — who, somewhat surprisingly, didn’t get a rookie extension done by Monday’s deadline, and will become a restricted free agent after this season. (Given how dead the RFA market was this past offseason, that’s not necessarily a good thing for Eason.)
More likely, the Rockets play out this season, and now that Durant has his two-year extension that keeps their contender window viable through 2028, Houston can just see how things shake out this season, and look to FVV’s return for 2026, while adding a veteran point next summer (CP3? Mike Conley? Tyus Jones?)
6. Can Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis lead Dallas deep into the playoffs?
No, the West is too stacked, and I can’t trust AD can get through a campaign without significant injury. But, when healthy, Dallas will be fun to watch. I expect Jason Kidd to put Flagg all over the court, maybe playing him at all five positions at times during the year. I’m on record as saying that the Mavs could surprise; I’m more bullish on D’Angelo Russell as a stopgap until Kyrie Irving’s return than most, I think.
Al Horford fills a big hole in the Warriors’ middle. Photo by Cameron Browne/ NBAE via Getty Images
7. Al Horford in Golden State; Kristaps Porziņģis in Atlanta; Jrue Holiday in Portland, Luke Kornet in San Antonio: which ex-Celtic will have the biggest impact on their new team?
Horford. It’s a hand-in-glove fit with the Dubs. His smarts and floor spacing are exactly what Stephen Curry and Draymond Green need to be their best. With Horford alongside him, Green can take more chances and potentially be even more disruptive defensively. The same goes for Curry at the other end, where Al and Steph could wreak havoc in pick-and-pops. Plus, Steve Kerr can have all kinds of fun running Jimmy Butler, Curry and Brandin Podziemski off of Horford in Golden State’s split actions. Kerr will have to be judicious with Horford’s minutes in the regular season, but this seems like a natural for Golden State, which should be in the top-six mix in the West all season, if healthy.
8a. What will the Celtics do without Jayson Tatum for most/all of this season?
I’m actually smelling a surprisingly good, 1993-94 Bulls-type campaign in Boston, with Jaylen Brown taking the Scottie Pippen role on that MJ-free Chicago team that shocked everyone by going 55-27 in the regular season while Jordan toiled for the Birmingham Barons, and reaching the Eastern Conference semifinals — before a, uh, controversial call in Game 5 of the Bulls’ series with the Knicks went New York’s way. The Knicks went on to win the series in seven games, and get to the finals.
This season, I see Brown channeling his Inner Pip. They’re alike in a lot of ways — defense-first wings who can score when needed, and who are beloved inside their locker rooms because of the respect their teammates have for their voice and leadership. To be sure, the C’s aren’t what they were 20 months ago. But they still have Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard and (for now, anyway) Anfernee Simons, with Sam Hauser on drums off the bench. And they still play in the woebegone East. If they can get anything out of their Neemias Queta/Luka Garza exacta in the middle, Boston could still be a top-six team in the conference. (In related news, doesn’t a Robert Williams reunion in Boston make all kinds of sense?)
JB will have a huge season in Beantown.
8b. What will the Pacers do without Tyrese Haliburton?
Not quite as high on Indy as I am on Boston. But the Pacers have a whole lot of really good players, who won’t take a night off: Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin. And they’ve got Albus Dumbledore coaching them up. I think they’ll cobble together enough center minutes between Jay Huff, Isaiah Jackson and Toppin to make up at least part of what Myles Turner gave them, and if Nembhard can hold up on the ball, Indy can and will still run a lot of teams ragged. Wouldn’t hurt the Pacers to see if there’s a veteran guard out there who could at least take some of that playmaking load off of Drew.
9. Does Cleveland have another gear, or are the Cavs just a regular-season wonder?
I sure hope it’s the former. I like teams that are smart about roster construction, and don’t wimp out when their good players become expensive. The Cavs’ post-LeBron build has created a really, really good team, that is really well-coached. But this group has bumped its head in three straight postseasons, and the second apron looms. Jarrett Allen is going to have to take the Brook Lopez Career Detour route for Cleveland to take the next step.
10. Magic over/under wins?
Vegas has Orlando at 51.5. I’ll take the over, in solidarity with how much I like the Magic’s pickups of Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones this offseason. They may not rise to the Hartenstein-Caruso level in terms of impact, but they still slap. And in a dilapidated East. Orlando should clean up on the conference’s lessers in its bid for a top-two seed.
11. Who you got taking the Emirates’ Cup?
Wrong window. Please, and again: Tell me who won the Cup last year? And how did their NBA season end up? Exactly.
12. How do you think NBC/Peacock and Amazon Prime Video are going to do on NBA broadcasts in place of TNT?
Very well. They didn’t try and reinvent the wheel; they imported most of Turner’s top talent, starting with the legendary play-by-play man Kevin Harlan (Amazon) and top analyst Reggie Miller (NBC), stacking their rosters further with broadcast talent like Ian Eagle, Stan Van Gundy, Grant Hill, Candace Parker and Dwyane Wade, with Cassidy Hubbarth taking the top sideline reporter spot for APV.
They also are taking very reasonable fliers on the likes of Carmelo Anthony, Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady (all with NBC), and Blake Griffin, Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash (Amazon) in studio roles, with Jamal Crawford doing games for NBC and Maria Taylor moving over from NBC’s Sunday Night Football during hoops season. Both networks are stacked. Look forward to seeing how it all shakes out, but both shops should be fun, with plenty of new voices talking passionately about hoops.
13. Biggest returning talent this season?
14. Gimme some (fake) trades.
That’s not a question. But I’ll play along. Even though I hate fake trades. Most of them are dumb, and can’t legally happen. How about, instead, I give you three ideas for non-stupid trades that would actually be beneficial to all teams involved, and don’t involve, say, the Nuggets trading the Joker for Mitchell Robinson and a 2041 second-round pick. (“What? Denver gets a center back!”)
Warriors trade Jonathan Kuminga to Chicago for shooting guard Kevin Huerter; Bulls trade guard Ayo Dosunmu to Indiana; Pacers trade wing Ben Sheppard to Chicago and center Tony Bradley to Golden State.
Kuminga’s shelf life in the Bay is limited. The Dubs could end the suspense with a reasonable gamble that the 27-year-old Huerter can get back to being the elite marksman he was in Atlanta and early in his Sacramento days, which would be a good bet given the guys who’d be on the floor with him every night in San Francisco. Chicago would get two years to evaluate JK’s skill set alongside Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis. Indy (see question No. 8, above) would do well to add the long and pesky Dosunmu to spell Andrew Nembhard at the point this season, while potentially being a low-cost re-sign next summer to back up Tyrese Haliburton when he returns for the 2026-27 season.
Celtics trade guard Anfernee Simons to Miami and a 2026 second-round pick to Brooklyn; Miami trades point guard Davion Mitchell to Boston; Miami trades Terry Rozier and a 2031 second-round pick to Brooklyn; Brooklyn gives Miami its 2032 second-round pick back and trades a 2031 second-round pick to Boston, or otherwise touches Boston and Miami with roster fodder.
This deal couldn’t take place until mid-January because of cap rules involving Mitchell’s re-signing with Miami this summer. But that would still give Boston enough time before the trade deadline in February to get under the luxury tax threshold.
Even after all of its offseason moves, which included acquiring Simons from Portland for Jrue Holiday, and which got the Celtics below the second apron, Boston still needs to cut another $12 million in payroll to get under the tax threshold. Doing so would clear Boston from having to pay the “repeater tax” after the season for going over the threshold three times in four seasons. If the C’s don’t get under, they’ll owe another $39 million in tax payments after this season. This is not the season for Boston to pay $39 million in taxes. Moving Simons and his $27.7 million salary by the deadline is the obvious solution.
Mitchell makes $11.6 million this season, is just 27, is a terrific on-ball defender and shot almost 40 percent on 3s for Toronto and Miami last year — prime Joe Mazzulla steak. Miami drafted Kasparas Jakučionis in the first round this year for a reason, one supposes; getting Mitchell off the ball would free up minutes for the 6-5 Jakučionis, who could then pair with Simons and Tyler Herro to give the Heat an intriguing three-guard rotation going forward. Brooklyn gets a couple of future seconds for taking Rozier’s expiring contract (he obviously would never play a second for the Nets) to facilitate the deal.
Wizards trade Corey Kispert to Orlando for Jonathan Isaac.
The Magic got Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones to help raise the floor on their terrible perimeter shooting, but you can’t have too much firepower if you truly have championship aspirations. Kispert, 26, is a career 38 percent 3-point shooter who’s an outstanding cutter and improved driver. He’d help Orlando’s bench unit immensely. Isaac is older (28) than Washington’s kiddie core, but he’s on a reasonable deal ($59 million remaining, including partial guaranteed years, through 2028-29), and the Wizards have exactly no size of note besides Alex Sarr in their shop. Isaac’s plus defense in the paint would play well with the nascent wing defenders Washington has in Bilal Coulibaly and Kyshawn George.
15. What did you think of “The Life of a Showgirl”?
Lola Falana put out a new album? Cool! I’ll run down to Tower Records this afternoon to pick it up!
16. Did Joe Mazzulla’s insistence that he and his Celtics coaches play Celtics media in a pickup game, rather than the all-media game originally planned — which ended, uh, 57-4, coaches — bother you?
Not really. Not the score, anyway. You step into the cage with a lion, expect to get bitten. I don’t think any of the media that played were forced to do so under duress. Everyone can stand to eat a little humble pie from time to time. And every one of the reporters has a great story to tell their kids and/or loved ones when they’re 80.
But, also: I doubt Mazzulla cares about the media as a whole enough to want to spend extended time with them in a non-press conference setting. If you want to do that, invite them out for a meal, or meals, during training camp, before the grind of the regular season makes spending meaningful time together almost impossible. In that environment, you could spend a few hours really trying to understand who they/we are, and where they/we are coming from on a daily basis.
Why’d Mazzulla choose pickup hoops as a bonding tool? I don’t know. I’m not around the Celtics every day. What I have observed is Mazzulla is a wildly competitive and deeply faithful man, who is a really good coach. Do I really need to know more? Only if he cares to share it with me, or the Beantown beat people. But, we’re never going to be on the same team.
17. More likely in a game: Ace Bailey scores 40 for the Jazz, or Egor Dëmin has 15 assists for the Nets?
Aces high. Matter of fact, if you want a dark horse candidate for Rookie of the Year, I’d bet a dub on Bailey.
Expect the Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama to be a force on defense again this season. Photo by Ronald Cortes / Getty Images
With the obvious caveat that we can’t know for sure those blood clots are in his rear view mirror, a healthy Victor Wembanyama will dominate, at both ends of the floor. His defense, obviously, has played from minute one. But you should expect him to, for example, shoot much better than his career 55 percent on 2-pointers this season. There’s no reason that Wemby, with his added muscle and strength, and with San Antonio getting a full season of De’Aaron Fox, shouldn’t bully-ball foes like this all season, and get that percentage up into the mid- to high-60s.
19. Eastern Conference Playoffs, non play-in?
New York, Cleveland, Orlando, Detroit, Milwaukee, Boston.
20. Eastern Conference finals?
New York over Orlando.
21. Western Conference Playoffs, non play-in?
Oklahoma City, Denver, Houston, Minnesota, Clippers, Lakers.
22. Western Conference finals?
OKC over Denver.
23. And the NBA champion will be…?
Oklahoma City runs it back, and the giddy OKC community agrees on the spot to build the Thunder a second new arena.
24. Tell me, again, why this is called 24 Questions?
We honor history here, and the 24-second shot clock, introduced into the NBA for the 1954-55 season, saved the league, and the games. Miss me with the 3-pointer and better weight training and chartered travel: no innovation in the pro game has been more important for the overall health of the NBA than putting a limit on the amount of time a team has before it has to shoot the ball.
It is what makes the NBA the NBA, and separates it from every other organized entity that plays basketball.
The 24-second clock, man. It’s just iconic.
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