Last week in this space, we accurately predicted that the 2025 NFL MVP odds for Bucs QB Baker Mayfield would become longer after a loss and potentially poor performance against the Lions. Our Baker’s Double came in, as the Lions defeated the Bucs 24-9 amid Mayfield’s worst game of the season. He threw for just 228 yards with one touchdown and one interception while being sacked four times and regularly missing open receivers. 

Still hope for Baker Believers? 

This resulted in an expected shift in Mayfield’s MVP odds, which sat at +300 before the game but are now at +750 as of Wednesday morning at Caesars Sportsbook. Whether this is a good thing is wholly subjective, but we believe, even for the Mayfield MVP “truthers” out there, that the best odds are yet to come. The Bucs (5-2) have a rough schedule patch ahead that includes back-to-back visits to the Bills and Rams. Should the Bucs lose those games, it’s easy to see Mayfield’s MVP odds drifting to +1500 or better.

What’s more, we believe he’d likely have to duplicate last year’s numbers, clipping 4,000 passing yards and 40-plus TDs, to merit real consideration. But there’s a chance he makes it a three-horse race down the stretch behind current favorite Patrick Mahomes (+135) of the Chiefs and reigning MVP Josh Allen (+365) of the Bills.  

Tampa Bay has a light season-ending schedule that includes two matchups with the defense-challenged Panthers and another with the moribund Dolphins. Should Mahomes and Allen basically cannibalize each other’s MVP hype, which could happen if the Allen and the Bills win their Week 8 showdown against each other, you could easily see voter fatigue for the AFC stalwarts turning into an avant-garde vote for the Bucs gunslinger as compiles massive late-season numbers while leading the Bucs to the best record in the NFC, which we believe would also be necessary for him to get serious MVP consideration.

So for the Baker Believers, we say sit back and wait for a better price, as it is sure to come, and take your chance at a late-season surge. In the meantime, while Mahomes is the deserved front-runner, there is zero value in his price because we’ve repeatedly seen how quickly things can change. But Allen supporters might not see a better price, and we feel there’s at least modest value in his price. Again, if the Bills beat the Chiefs in Week 8 and it is specifically because of some late-game magic from the rugged dual-threat QB, we could see him become the favorite or draw even with Mahomes at worst with a price of around +200 for each. 

Chalks to avoid

We’re simply passing on names such as Patriots QB Drake Maye (+750), Rams veteran Matthew Stafford (+1000) and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (+2000) as we don’t see any of them doing enough to overcome the favorites or even provide enough equity to give investors some level of profitable hedge options. 

Longshots to consider 

Last week, we mentioned liking the contingent value of two-time MVP Lamar Jackson (+3500) of the Ravens, and we’ve already placed a small wager on this. The contingency plan being Jackson returns this week, along with some help from an injury-ravaged defense, and turns this 1-5 record into 12-5 and an AFC North title. This unlikely, but not impossible, quest begins this weekend as the Ravens host the upstart Chicago Bears as 5.5-point favorites. There’s little doubt that if Baltimore wins and Jackson looks like his explosive self that these odds will have dropped significantly by next week.

One other underdog that we think is at least worth considering is Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (+5000). A non-QB winning this award is uncommon but not unheard of. The last non-QB to take the hardware was Vikings RB Adrian Peterson in 2012, and we once saw running backs win it consecutive years as Shaun Alexander of the Seahawks won it in 2005, followed by LaDanian Tomlinson of the Chargers in 2006. Moreover, former Rams great Marshall Faulk won the NFL MVP in 2000.

That’s four running backs to have collected the prestigious hardware in this century, though none in the past 13 years. Perhaps Taylor has the profile to break this streak. The explosive Wisconsin product has galloped for 697 yards, just shy of averaging 100 yards per game, while scoring 10 TDs and registering three, three-TD performances. At the very least, his odds should rival that of reborn QB Daniel Jones (+2000), who is currently the Colt getting respect in the MVP market. 

It’s conceivable that this Colts team could end up leading the NFL in wins with 13 or 14. If they were to accomplish this feat, with Taylor approaching 2,000 yards and scoring 20-plus TDs in the process, the running back would have to enter the MVP conversation, and we believe using the change found in your couch cushions or some sort of sportsbook-provided bonus bet to weigh in on Taylor at these odds is an investment worth making.