The Championship 4 field for the NASCAR Cup Series will be set Sunday at Martinsville Speedway, where six stars will battle for the final two spots.
Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, William Byron and Joey Logano will be seeking to join Round of 8 winners Denny Hamlin (Las Vegas Motor Speedway) and Chase Briscoe (Talladega Superspeedway) in racing for the title in the Nov. 2 season finale at Phoenix Raceway.
Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney have both triumphed in must-win situations at Martinsville and will try to do it again Sunday.
Bell is 37 points above the cutline, and Larson is 36 points ahead, putting both in good position to advance to the Championship barring a win by Blaney, Ellliott, Byron or Logano.
But it’s easy to make a case for any of the six drivers — who are all past winners at Martinsville — celebrating Sunday in victory lane.
Blaney has won the past two Round of 8 finales at Martinsville (eventually winning the championship in 2023), and Bell (2022) and Elliott (2020) also won at Martinsville to reach Phoenix.
Team announces that Daniel Suarez will replace Justin Haley in the No. 7 car next season.
Larson has six consecutive top-six finishes at Martinsville (including a win in April 2023), and Byron has two wins there (though only two top 10s in the past five races at the 0.526-mile oval in Southwest Virginia.
Per Racing Insights, Larson has an 81.8% probability of advancing, and Bell is at 81.5%. The odds are much lower for Blaney (12.5%), Elliott (9.6%), Byron (8.5%) and Logano (6.1%).
The 36-point gap to the cutline also is the largest entering the Round of 8 finale in the 12 seasons of the elimination playoffs.
But Larson and Bell are both below the biggest points cushion to be squandered at Martinsville. Kevin Harvick was 42 points above the cutline entering the 2020 race and was eliminated after finishing 17th with no stage points.
Chase Elliott and William Byron are below the cutline entering Sunday’s playoff race at Martinsville on NBC and Peacock.
At least one driver below the cutline entering the Round of 8 finale has made the Championship 4 in five of the past six seasons.
Larson has outscored Bell in 21 of 34 races this season, but Bell had three more points than Larson in the March 30 race at Martinsville.
Details for Sunday’s Cup race at Martinsville Speedway
(All times Eastern)
START: The green flag is scheduled to wave at 2:17 p.m.
PRERACE: The Cup garage will open at 11 a.m. … The drivers meeting will be at 1 p.m. … Driver introductions will be at 1:25 p.m. … The national anthem will be performed at 2:01 p.m. by the Liberty University marching band. … The command to start engines is scheduled to be given at 2:08 p.m.
DISTANCE: The race is 500 laps (263 miles) on the 0.526-mile oval in Martinsville, Virginia.
STAGES: Stage 1 ends at Lap 130. Stage 2 ends at Lap 260.
PURSE: $9,797,935
ENTRY LIST: Click here for the 37 cars entered at Martinsville Speedway.
TV/RADIO: NBC and Peacock will broadcast the race starting with Countdown to Green at 1:30 p.m. (click here for information on signing up for Peacock). Leigh Diffey will hande play by play with analysts Jeff Burton and Steve Letarte. Marty Snider, Kim Coon, Dave Burns, and Parker Kligerman will be the pit reporters. … Motor Racing Network and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio will have radio coverage.
FORECAST: WeatherUnderground — Cloudy with a high of 59 degrees and a 5% chance of rain with light and variable winds. It’s expected to be 57 degrees with a 0% chance of rain at the start of the Cup race.
LAST TIME: Denny Hamlin led a race-high 274 of 400 laps and beat Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell by 4.617 seconds to win March 30.
LAST YEAR: Ryan Blaney led the final 15 laps to capture a Championship 4 berth, but the Nov. 3, 2024 race was marred by manipulation that took NASCAR nearly 30 minutes to sort out the finish and determine that William Byron would advance to the title race over Christopher Bell.