Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors are off to a 1-0 start in the 2025-26 season, as they beat the Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points on Tuesday night.

Now, the Warriors head home for their first game at Chase Center this season, and they’re set as underdogs against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets.

This is the season debut for Denver, which made some interesting moves this offseason, adding Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas while trading away Michael Porter Jr. and Dario Saric.

Denver is second in the odds to win the Finals this season, and it’s had Golden State’s number in recent seasons, winning nine of the 10 matchups between the squads dating back to the 2022-23 season.

Can Golden State flip the script on Thursday? It did win the last matchup between these teams last season with Jimmy Butler (31 points against the Lakers on Tuesday) in the fold.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Western Conference battle on Thursday. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Nuggets Injury ReportWarriors Injury ReportNuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jokic is a great bet in this rebound prop on Thursday: 

I love this matchup for Jokic, as he’s been dominant on the boards against Golden State in his last 10 games against them.

Jokic is averaging 12.7 rebounds per game in his last 10 vs. the Warriors, picking up 12 or more boards in seven of those games.

The Warriors were basically even on the glass in their season opener against the Lakers, but they only played Draymond Green (started at center) and Al Horford at the center spot. Both of those players have a major size disadvantage against Jokic, who averaged a 12.7 boards per game last season and at least 12.4 boards in three of the last four seasons.

Golden State also allowed 62 points in the paint in the game against L.A., so I wouldn’t be shocked if the Nuggets focus on attacking the paint – and the offensive glass – on Thursday.

Even though Golden State looked impressive on Tuesday night against the Lakers, I didn’t love the look in Golden State’s frontcourt, as the team was minus-10 in Al Horford’s minutes off the bench and the Lakers scored a whopping 62 points in the paint.

That’s going to be an issue against Jokic, who has dominated Golden State in recent seasons, averaging 31.3 points, 12.7 rebounds and 9.4 assists in his last 10 games against them. 

The Nuggets are a better team than they were last season, and Golden State’s lone win over Denver in the last three seasons came with Jamal Murray out of the lineup for the Nuggets.

I wouldn’t be shocked if this is a close game – and the spread suggests it will be – but I’m betting on Denver coming away with a win in this matchup. I think it matches up too well with Golden State, especially if Cam Johnson proves to be a two-way upgrade over Michael Porter Jr. 

Pick: Nuggets Moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Unlock $200 in bonus bets — all without a promo code for DraftKings. Sign up and place a $5 bet. If you win, you will receive $300 in bonus bets instantly +3 months of NBA League Pass.