WTA Tokyo is entering the quarterfinals, and the remaining participants are extremely talented. We have several matches between younger players and some established names, as well. Here are my picks for them. Please share your thoughts in the comment section.   

WTA Tokyo Quarterfinals
Bencic – Muchova: Time 06:30

H2H: 2-2

Belina Bencic vs Karolina Muchova is our featured match for this article. The two have a solid rivalry, having played four times, with the series knotted at two victories apiece. Muchova won their latest match, which was a 2025 third-round meeting at WTA Montreal. Muchova took the match in three sets. In fact, she’s won their last two matches. Bencic enjoyed the first two victories, but the last one came in 2022. Bencic made the final here in 2015, and this is Muchova’s first time playing at WTA Tokyo.

Best Bet to Make

The books favor Muchova, which is a bit surprising. Bencic is 7-3 in her last ten matches, but Muchova is only 6-4, trading victories with losses. Bencic has two round-of-16 appearances and two quarterfinal appearances in her last 11 matches. Bencic has the better hardcourt record this year at 27-12 to Muchova’s 23-12 record. Bencic is also 34-17 overall this year, but Muchova is 26-16 overall, so I am confused. The only thing I can think of is that they’re weighing Muchova’s wins in the last two games more heavily than other factors. Give me Bencic in the upset.

That being said, Bencic winning is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/the best odds: Bencic winning @2.54 @Betfair

Alexandrova – Kenin: Time 10:00

H2H: 1-0

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Sofia Kenin rounds out the quarterfinal matches at WTA Tokyo. This is another meeting of two Top 25 players in the World. They have only had one previous meeting, a 2024 first-round match at the WTA Wuhan tournament, which Alexandrova won in three sets. Kenin hasn’t won a tournament since 2020, while Alexandrova’s last victory came in February at WTA Linz. Kenin hasn’t had the most difficult route to the quarterfinals, and I question if victories over Sonobe and Uchijima are enough preparation for playing Alexandrova. I suspect it’s nowhere near good enough.

Best Bet to Make

Sofia Kenin is a monster underdog in this game. She’s basically a 4.5-1 underdog, and you won’t see me recommending a victory of this type. If you have, uh, fortitude to place that bet, more power to you. When you’re looking at that big of an underdog, I suspect that you know that’s a throwaway bet. I would simplify my life and take Alexandrova in straight sets. At 1.62 on Bet365, you can secure yourself a nice payout for little work. Do not be fooled by the three-set match in 2024; I think this one will be much, much quicker.

That being said, Alexandrova winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/the best odds: Alexandrova winning 2:0 @1.62 @Bet365

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

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